Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Reichert (R) 49
Burner (D) 41
Not so great, but better than the SUSA poll from a month ago that had Reichert leading 54-44. Reichert under 50 with a month to go is much, much better. But the poll is showing a positive trend, Reichert is below 50, and his approvals are below 50. (Full crosstabs below the fold.)
This is in contrast to an internal poll Darcy's campaign is citing (via e-mail) that has her up 50-41. With no crosstabs on that internal poll available, it's impossible to compare. One of the methodological issues that could be affecting polling in this district is that, being one of the most tech-oriented districts in the nation, there are a lot of cell phone only households who aren't being reached.
That said, Darcy is running against a celebrity. While the real history of the King Co. sheriff's department investigation of the Green River Killer is complex and doesn't shine a particularly flattering light on Reichert, he still gets tremendous mileage out of being "The Sheriff." Every interview, every profile, every commercial, he never fails to work in the fact that he's "The Sheriff." And, frankly, the local media has let him get away with it.
They've been so undemanding of him that he repeated his biggest (largely unreported upon) trick from the sole 2006 debate: he told the moderators and audience that he was just going to skip the question on media consolidation because he didn't know enough about it.
This time it was a question on abortion, a key issue for this predominantly pro-choice district. Reichert was asked what Congress should do if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and he didn't answer the question, saying it wasn't an issue for Congress. At least the Seattle PI's blogging reporter included that in his story. For the record, he's anti-choice to the point of believing pharmacists should be allowed to refuse to dispense birth control.
Defining Reichert's far-right positions and his utter ineffectiveness as a Congressman is going to be the key for the next month, and it's going to be a challenge. No one knows that better than Darcy.
On the Web:
Darcy Burner for Congress
Orange to Blue
WA-8 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Eight Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 5 and October 7, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 190 (48%)
Women 210 (52%)
Democrats 140 (35%)
Republicans 144 (36%)
Independents/Other 116 (29%)
18-29 70 (17%)
30-44 132 (33%)
45-59 136 (34%)
60+ 62 (16%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dave Reichert? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 32% 28% 13% 13%
MEN 16% 35% 25% 12% 12%
WOMEN 12% 29% 31% 14% 14%
DEMOCRATS 8% 23% 41% 22% 6%
REPUBLICANS 21% 41% 16% 5% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 13% 33% 27% 12% 15%
18-29 11% 28% 31% 15% 15%
30-44 17% 36% 25% 11% 11%
45-59 13% 31% 29% 14% 13%
60+ 15% 33% 27% 12% 13%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Darcy Burner? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 30% 26% 11% 20%
MEN 12% 27% 29% 13% 19%
WOMEN 14% 33% 23% 9% 21%
DEMOCRATS 21% 42% 16% 6% 15%
REPUBLICANS 6% 19% 37% 17% 21%
INDEPENDENTS 12% 29% 25% 10% 24%
18-29 15% 32% 24% 9% 20%
30-44 11% 27% 28% 13% 21%
45-59 14% 32% 25% 10% 19%
60+ 12% 29% 27% 11% 21%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Darcy Burner the Democrat or Dave Reichert the Republican?
REICHERT BURNER OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 41% 2% 8%
MEN 53% 39% 2% 6%
WOMEN 45% 43% 2% 10%
DEMOCRATS 12% 76% 2% 10%
REPUBLICANS 84% 7% 1% 8%
OTHER 51% 40% 3% 6%
18-29 47% 43% 2% 8%
30-44 51% 38% 3% 8%
45-59 48% 42% 2% 8%
60+ 50% 40% 1% 9%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 43% 3% 7%
MEN 43% 49% 3% 5%
WOMEN 51% 37% 3% 9%
DEMOCRATS 84% 7% 2% 7%
REPUBLICANS 9% 81% 3% 7%
OTHER 48% 41% 4% 7%
18-29 50% 40% 2% 8%
30-44 43% 47% 4% 6%
45-59 48% 42% 4% 6%
60+ 47% 43% 2% 8%