This race is far from over, folks. Don’t let the poll numbers fool you. As a matter of fact, they should scare you!
Many of us (including me) go to FiveThirtyEightDotCom and see the map as a very nice shade of blue. Well, most of it, anyway. We see that many of the big states with lots of electoral votes are quite blue. This includes California, New York, and Pennsylvania. Even Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada are a pretty shade of light blue on the map.
Oh, but there is danger all over that map!
I could never question the site’s methodology. I don’t know enough about their software, their weighting procedure, and whatever other gyrations they put the poll numbers through to get their results. But what I see there is this: When you scroll way down the site’s page and look at the individual polling numbers for individual states, the numbers that you find there should make you sit up a little straighter and realize that McCain is not the rapidly-fading horse we have come to regard him as.
When you look at the polling numbers closely, some frightening facts come to light. Most importantly, many of the polls which have Obama in the lead are based on them having polled more Democrats than Republicans. When you look even deeper into these numbers, the polls which have Obama up the most also have the highest percentage of Democrats in their polling. The polls which have the race tightest are the ones which have a relatively even number of Dems and Reps.
Yes, I realize that no state is perfectly divided 50-50 between the two parties. Yes, I know that this same correlation exists in the Texas polling which is sickeningly McCain’s. But what you must be wary of is the polling from swing states and traditionally red states. Ohio’s numbers are nearly terrifying. If the poll talked to 3% more Dems, Obama’s up 3%. If it talked to 2% more Reps, McCain is up 2%. This same one-to-one correlation applies to the polls of Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida.
"Relax," you say. "We have registration advantages there," you say. "Registration does not a voter make," say I. The Republicans are making a concerted effort to disenfranchise Democratic voters in the battleground and swing states. Newly registered voters may very well not bother to go to the polling places even if they know exactly where they are. After all, the excitement generated at the door by a registration canvasser wears off over the weeks that pass before Election Day. There will likely be lines at the polls, causing additional no-shows of our people as folks give up because they don’t want to wait 30 minutes or more to vote. And lastly, when the MSM reports our candidate as being up in the national polls by 5% or more, people get the attitude of, "Well, he’s gonna win even without my vote. I can save the effort and let all of those other folks put Obama into the White House." This is probably the thing which is most dangerous to our candidate’s success – complacency.
Yes, Barack Obama is doing well. Yes, he’s kicking McCain’s ass in the debates. Yes, McCain picked a moran as his running mate. Yes, things are looking good for us. But I implore you to not allow yourself to become comfortable. I beg you to remember the feeling of great urgency we all had when it looked like Hillary might win the primary, and when some of the bullshit "scandals" were all over the news, and when John McCain was ahead in the polls – just like Obama is now. This thing could very well turn against us in the three weeks and four days yet to pass before Election Day, just like it turned against McCain in the last three weeks and four days. We’ve got to keep the pressure on. Like Han Solo once told Luke Skywalker, "Don’t get cocky!" Keep pressing the battle and taking the fight to George Bush’s choice for president. This is the most important election I’ve seen since 1968 and likely the most important election many of you will ever see. Remember that we’re fighting for the good of an entire nation. Fight to the end! We could even turn this into a landslide! Send the neocons back to the room in Hell that spawned them.