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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Shadegg (R) 48
Lord (D) 39

Anzalone Liszt Research (D) for the DCCC. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (No trend lines)

Shadegg (R) 44
Lord (D) 45
Shoen (L) 5

We screwed up in the Research 2000 poll by not including the Libertarian candidate. In 2006, the Libertarian got 3 percent. In 2004, with no Democrat on the ballot, it was 20 percent. In 2002, 2 percent. So it's a district that will give at least a couple of points to the Libertarian. And if there's a year that Libertarian-minded Republicans will cast protest votes for Libertarians, it might be this one. But even with that oversight, Bob Lord is within single digits and Shadegg under the magical 50 percent mark.

Crosstabs below the fold.

On the web:
Bob Lord for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

AZ-3 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Third Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 6 and October 8, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  197 (49%)                
Women                203 (51%)

Democrats            116 (29%)    
Republicans          183 (46%)      
Independents/Other   101 (25%)

18-29                 68 (17%)
30-44                128 (32%)
45-59                121 (30%)
60+                   83 (21%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Shadegg? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         35%         31%         10%         12%

MEN                 14%         38%         29%          9%         10%
WOMEN               10%         32%         33%         11%         14%

DEMOCRATS            5%         22%         44%         15%         14%
REPUBLICANS         20%         47%         17%          6%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        11%         35%         32%         10%         12%

18-29                7%         27%         31%         12%         23%
30-44               11%         34%         26%          7%         22%
45-59                8%         30%         29%          9%         24%
60+                 10%         33%         26%          8%         23%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Lord? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  9%         33%         28%          7%         23%

MEN                  8%         31%         31%          8%         22%
WOMEN               10%         35%         25%          6%         24%

DEMOCRATS           14%         45%         14%          3%         24%
REPUBLICANS          5%         20%         43%         11%         21%
INDEPENDENTS         9%         34%         27%          6%         24%

18-29               11%         37%         25%          5%         22%
30-44                7%         30%         31%          9%         23%
45-59                9%         34%         26%          5%         26%
60+                  8%         31%         30%          9%         22%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Bob Lord the Democrat or John Shadegg the Republican?

                   SHADEGG     LORD        OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         39%          2%         11%

MEN                 51%         37%          2%         10%
WOMEN               45%         41%          2%         12%

DEMOCRATS            6%         88%          2%          4%
REPUBLICANS         78%          6%          3%         13%
OTHER               43%         43%          5%          9%

18-29               45%         41%          2%         12%
30-44               51%         37%          2%         10%
45-59               47%         40%          2%         11%
60+                 50%         37%          1%         12%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 50%         39%          3%          8%

MEN                 52%         38%          4%          6%
WOMEN               48%         40%          2%         10%

DEMOCRATS            6%         88%          2%          4%
REPUBLICANS         81%          6%          3%         10%
OTHER               44%         43%          5%          8%

18-29               47%         42%          3%          8%
30-44               53%         37%          4%          6%
45-59               49%         40%          3%          8%
60+                 52%         37%          2%          9%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:55 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I have confidence in the AZ voters (4+ / 0-)

    AZ voters are feeling the pinch of republican fingers too.  They'll do the right thing for their family at the end of the day.

    Campaign platform: McCain/Palin = Lie. All the time. To everyone. About everything.

    by winter outhouse on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:01:15 PM PDT

  •  Bush won 58% of the vote here in 2004 (0+ / 0-)

    Obama has reduced the margin by 5 points. But that won't be enough to win the state, unfortunately.

  •  Youd think (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    michael1104

    a guy named after the Creator could beat a Republican!

  •  Great to see big undecided percentage in the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    revgerry

    Repub column. I think they're trying to figure out what John Shadegg has ever done in Congress - except to vote NO for every program that might serve his constituency, and YES on most Bush policies.

    "One cannot be pessimistic about the West. This is the native land of hope." Wallace Stegner

    by Mother Mags on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:03:02 PM PDT

  •  He'll wish he had retired after this is through. (0+ / 0-)

    At least then he could've saved a shred of dignity.

    Evolution is an incremental project.

    by Common Cents on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:03:15 PM PDT

  •  Are the Republicans undecided because they're (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    buddabelly, yank2351

    racist or because a bunch of them really don't like McCain (we know conservative Arizonans aren't thrilled with him).

    •  R's are whatever they are told to be. nt (0+ / 0-)

      Republicans are not a national party anymore. Read My Lips: One Spouse, One House.

      by jalapeno on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:09:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The hard core republics here hate mcsame (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      yank2351

      with a passion. The first straw poll of Maricopa county was won by Hunter and mcsame came in last.

      Basically he's not quite insane enough and they really hated his semi-sane border proposal. It was amnesty as far as they were concerned, and even though he's walked it back, they don't trust him.

      Heavy libertarian and nativist element in the republic base here.

      I'd like to see a full state poll done with current registration numbers used in the weighting. We've really blown the republics out of the water in new registrations.

      Plus all the statewide polls show around a 10 point lead for mcsame with around 16% undecided still.

      Obama has a real chance here as I think the polling is skewed to old numbers where the base in Maricopa could outnumber the rest of the state. With the registration advantage and some serious gotv it's now possible.

      Also mcsames internals here must be horrible as he has been advertising pretty heavy in Pima county.  If he's advertising in Maricopa also well....then the times are a changin....

    •  yeah i get the feeling (0+ / 0-)

      that many of the "undecided" Republicans are flirting with voting for the libertarian because they are pissed off.
      However, I think most will vote for Shadegg in the end...

  •  Why do you think the under 50% is so magical? (0+ / 0-)

    Is there actual data out there that actually puts a number on the probability that an incumbent will lose based on polling 3 weeks out from an election?

    McCain: Out of touch and out of time.

    by Anne Elk on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:07:00 PM PDT

    •  Well, it used to be that undecideds broke (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rolfyboy6

      against the incumbent, so keeping them under 50% was key.  But I'm not sure that's the case anymore.

      "[I]t's so clear, again, what those choices are. Either new ideas, new energy and reform of Washington, DC, or more of the same." Sarah Palin. Agreed!

      by AUBoy2007 on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:14:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      yank2351, obscuresportsquarterly

      Mark Blumenthal, back when he was "Mystery Pollster, discusses it here. While he's focusing on the presidential race in 2004, the phenomenon applies to downticket races as well.

      It's no guarantee the incumbent will lose (obviously), but it's indicative of an incumbent in trouble.

    •  Chuck Todd was saying a few weeks (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      yank2351

      ago on Meet The Press, that 48% is the magic number Obama needs to be at in the state polls when election day comes.  He estimates that at that number, the undecideds will break enough in his favor to put him in the win column.

      "Somewhere in Texas a village is missing its idiot."

      by Gramarye on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:37:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  17% less dems than R in this districrt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rolfyboy6, revgerry

    and we are frickin close?  Are you kidding me?

    Wow!!

    I guess tidal waves are blue aren't theY?

    Republicans are not a national party anymore. Read My Lips: One Spouse, One House.

    by jalapeno on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:08:37 PM PDT

    •  But how many Independents? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      buddabelly

      In Arizona, the Independent vote is very key.

      •  Arizona's electorate is roughly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        buddabelly

        1/3 Democratic, 1/3 independents, and 1/3 Republicans.  The indies will decide the vote here.

        "Somewhere in Texas a village is missing its idiot."

        by Gramarye on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:38:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  that may be statewide (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jalapeno

          but in AZ-3 it is more like 45Rs quarter 30 Dems and a quarter Inds...
          It is very similar to AZ-5 where Mitchell beat Hayworth in 06. It is really impressive that Lord is competitive here but if Mitchell showed us anything it CAN be done.

      •  Back in August, there was this (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        limulus, buddabelly

        article about voter registrations in Arizona:

        New voter registration figures released Wednesday show the Grand Old Party added more than 57,000 people since the 2006 primary. But the Democrats managed to pick up another 110,405 followers in the same period.

        That means Democrats now total more than 34.2 percent of the nearly 2.8 million people registered to vote, up from less than 33.5 percent two years earlier. In contrast, the Republicans' share of those eligible to cast ballots slipped from more than 39.6 percent to less than 38 percent.
        Still, Republicans maintain a 103,696 registration edge.

        And the number and share of those not interested in affiliating with any of the recognized parties went up by nearly 94,000. They now total more than 27.1 percent of eligible voters, and they will be eligible to vote in Tuesday's primary, under a state law that allows them to select which party's primary they want to participate in.

        And then there was this recent tidbit about last minute voter registrations this week in AZ:

        Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer says she sees record interest for voting in the upcoming general election.

        Brewer says her office collected nearly 42,000 registrations on Oct. 6, the deadline for registering in time to vote in the Nov. 4 election.

        Brewer says the nearly 39,000 online registrations compares with the previous single-day online registration record of more than 21,000 in October 2004

        Those later registrations are not broken down by party affiliation yet, but I bet their aren't nearly as many Republicans vs Democrats and Indies registering the last minute.  This is all good news for AZ.

        "Somewhere in Texas a village is missing its idiot."

        by Gramarye on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:45:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Deregulation (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    limulus

    Democrat Bob Lord is running in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District against incumbent Republican Rep. John Shadegg. "Deregulation" is the third television spot from Bob Lord for Congress.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:08:39 PM PDT

  •  I wouldn't call this poll "within striking range" (0+ / 0-)

    He's performing the same as Obama, except slightly more Republicans are undecided.

    •  Which is basically the same in all the polls (0+ / 0-)

      except Darcy Burner, where there seems to be a perceptible number of people who are voting Obama & Reichert.

    •  McCain is at 50 percent (0+ / 0-)

      and Obama doesn't have an active election in the state.

      Shadegg is under 50 percent, faces a well-funded challenger waging a very active, and very aggressive campaign.

      There's a huge difference between the two.

      •  Obama doesn't have an active election in the stat (6+ / 0-)

        e............. Whats you talkin bout Willis...

          I have been making Phone calls for Obama at Obama Biden on 6th street and Roosevelt and have been calling for candidates at 75th ave and Cactus,

          We are going to whoop the Republicans in Arizona and give Obama a Win..... Right here ...Right Now!

        Read to your kids..... "I am the slime oozin out From your tv set" F.Zappa

        by Tadly on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:23:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Obviously, current polling numbers being equal, (0+ / 0-)

        Shadegg is less likely to win the district than is McCain, for that reason.

        However, the poll has the exact same numbers in all 3 party demographic groups for Obama and for Bob Lord; the only difference seems to be that in the Shadegg v. Lord race, 13% of Republicans are undecided, while in the McCain vs. Obama race, 10% of Republicans are undecided (with the 3% difference going entirely to McCain).

        Looking at the undecideds, even with the very generous assumption that Lord gets 1/3 of the undecided Republicans, 100% of the undecided Dems, and 75% of the undecided others, he'd still be down 9 points.

        Of course, R2000 didn't poll the Libertarian, and that guy could be pulling angry Republicans who didn't respond in the affirmative to "Other," especially given that "Other" wasn't given as an option.

        And 400 does have a fairly high MOE (4.9)

  •  Democrats could go Libertarian, too, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    limulus

    especially in a Congressional race.  A lot of people are fed up with both Dems and Reps in Congress.

    Vote for yourself at www.ni4d.us

    by rossl on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:11:27 PM PDT

    •  Stats show (0+ / 0-)

      that libertarians take votes away from republicans at a 2 to 1 clip as opposed to Democrats.

      so yes some Dems may vote for a libertarian but it is a small number and this district has had Shadegg for a long time if they are fed up with anyone it is Republicans...

      •  Data (0+ / 0-)

        I am not saying you are wrong about the D/R/L/ redivide, but I am always interested in new sources on this.

        •  I have read in numerous (0+ / 0-)

          articles about how 66 percent for Ronald Reagan in 1980, 74 percent for George H. W. Bush in 1988, and 72 percent for George W. Bush in 2000.

          Recently because of Bush's spending habits this dropped drastically in 2004 to 59% for Bush. This is largely because of Bush's big spending and the Patriot Act and things like that.

          They still tend to gravitate towards Republicans, especially in states like AZ where I am from. The site where I pulled that info from is here...

          http://www.cato.org/...

  •  "we screwed up ..." (0+ / 0-)

    Wouldn't this be a much better world today if over the last 8 years we had heard those words when they were appropriate from all sorts of people?

    Thank you, Markos. That shows real class. Makes me damn proud to hang out at your place!

    You kids behave or I'm turning this universe around RIGHT NOW! - god

    by Clem Yeobright on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:11:36 PM PDT

  •  Sorta OT, but there's no open thread for it (0+ / 0-)

    Brent Musberger announcing the Texas-Oklahoma game, they cut to a Texas State Fair "see the fun they're having here" clip of a pig race...  so the pigs all slam into the food bowl they were racing to and the ¿Oreo Cookie? flips out of the cage.  Four snouts poked thru the wire grid tryin' to reach the cookie and Musberger says:

    'Is there any lipstick on those pigs?'

    8^)

    Conservatism is a function of age - Rousseau
    I've been 19 longer'n you've been alive - me

    by watercarrier4diogenes on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:14:24 PM PDT

  •  Here's the Bush morphing into Shadegg ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    yank2351

    "Somewhere in Texas a village is missing its idiot."

    by Gramarye on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:34:26 PM PDT

  •  95% of Kossacks think paying Taxes is Patriotic (0+ / 0-)

    So how do we fight this narrative that Obama is bad, because he'll raise your taxes?

    Neanderthal Grunt: Taxes Bad Obama Bad

    My first instinct is to point to the $235B interest on debt that we paid in 2007.

    I'd like to point to M3 to show how many dollars have been printed, but the Treasury stopped announcing that in Feb 2006.

  •  Shadegg Working to be Queen of the Backbench... (0+ / 0-)

    But it would be awesome to see him fall in M¢Cain's backyard.

    Why not send #3 GOPer Adam Putnam home, too?

    FL-12.  The forgotten race between GOP frat boy and progressive Navy man...

    http://www.teamtudor.org

    Because Doug Tudor's a better Democrat, too!

  •  Good polling (0+ / 0-)

    Match the poll to the actual list of candidates

    New Hampshire, Third Party Candidates
    http://www.sos.nh.gov/...

    Massachusetts, all candidates
    http://www.sec.state.ma.us/...

    (mind you, polling Massachusetts is perhaps not your highest priority.)

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