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Research 2000's poll for Daily Kos shows Republican incumbent Thelma Drake ahead of her Democratic challenger, Glenn Nye, by a healthy margin.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Drake (R) 51
Nye (D) 37

Glenn Nye is a highly attractive candidate in many ways, but if this poll is to be believed, Drake has a comfortable lead in her bid for reelection this fall. While she faced a nailbiter of a race against Democrat Phil Kellam in 2006, frequently trailing in polls, she's had a consistent lead over Nye this time out.

Nye is actually underperforming Obama by a few points - Obama trails 51% to 42% in VA-02. Democratic internal polling has shown Nye within striking distance of Drake - just five points back - so all is not lost in this district, but Nye looks to have an awfully hard road ahead.

It's especially unfortunate to see this in the wake of a heinous smear campaign from Drake. We'll be pulling for Nye to pull this one out.

On the web:
Glenn Nye for Congress

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Second Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 6 and October 8, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  193 (48%)
Women                207 (52%)

Democrats            124 (31%)
Republicans          161 (40%)
Independents/Other   115 (29%)

18-29                 69 (17%)
30-44                133 (33%)
45-59                123 (31%)
60+                   75 (19%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Thelma Drake? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 16%         32%         24%         12%         16%

MEN                 17%         34%         23%         11%         15%
WOMEN               15%         30%         25%         13%         17%

DEMOCRATS            7%         22%         35%         18%         18%
REPUBLICANS         26%         43%         14%          7%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        15%         31%         23%         11%         20%

18-29               14%         29%         27%         14%         16%
30-44               17%         33%         22%         11%         17%
45-59               15%         31%         26%         12%         16%
60+                 18%         34%         22%         11%         15%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Glenn Nye? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         31%         22%          8%         29%

MEN                  9%         29%         25%         10%         27%
WOMEN               11%         33%         19%          6%         31%

DEMOCRATS           17%         44%         12%          4%         23%
REPUBLICANS          5%         18%         33%         13%         31%
INDEPENDENTS         8%         31%         21%          7%         33%

18-29               11%         33%         25%          7%         24%
30-44                9%         28%         19%         11%         33%
45-59               10%         32%         23%          8%         27%
60+                  8%         31%         18%         10%         33%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Glenn Nye the Democrat or Thelma Drake the Republican?

                   DRAKE       NYE         UNDECIDED  

ALL                 51%         37%         12%

MEN                 54%         36%         10%
WOMEN               48%         38%         14%

DEMOCRATS           12%         77%         11%
REPUBLICANS         83%          5%         12%
OTHER               49%         38%         13%

18-29               48%         39%         13%
30-44               53%         35%         12%
45-59               51%         38%         11%
60+                 52%         36%         12%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 51%         42%          3%          4%

MEN                 55%         40%          3%          2%
WOMEN               47%         44%          3%          6%

DEMOCRATS           11%         85%          2%          2%
REPUBLICANS         84%          8%          3%          5%
OTHER               49%         43%          3%          5%

18-29               47%         44%          3%          6%
30-44               55%         40%          3%          2%
45-59               49%         43%          3%          5%
60+                 54%         41%          2%          3%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 06:50 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  A lot of democrats I talk to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    don't care for Glenn Nye that much. They'll vote for him but they won't support him with donations. I don't know why but he doesn't get the same support Kellam got last go round. Kellam almost beat Drake in a nailbiter of an election.

    Drake's running a smear campaign against Nye. She's disgusting. I'd love to see her go but I fear Nye has an uphill battle that may be too much to overcome in a short time.

    •  Funny....Most of the Dems that I speak with... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      In Norfolk & VB- elected officials, Dem activists, and others are VERY excited about Nye's candidacy.
      He's has an outpouring of support from my local Dem Committee and many elected officials are busting their behinds to get him elected.
      I have NEVER given more that $10, maybe $15 to a candidate- I have given Glenn Nye $100 and plan to give him what I can.
      He's a great guy and I believe that his biggest flaw may be that he is taking the high ground and not hitting her back like she is hitting him.

      Thelma Drake represents Rovian politics at its lowest. As a matter of fact- Karl Rove did a fundraiser FOR her this summer. She's using personal unfounded attacks against Glenn and it's a shame. I know if his campaign dug into her past they would find that as a realtor she was in bed with some of the worst predatory lenders in this area.

      I'm excited that I get to cast my vote this year for three excellent candidates- Barack Obama, Mark Warner, and Glenn Nye!!

      "We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett

  •  I used to be Drake's constituent. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sanuk, snaglepuss

    She actually took my phone call once (good for her) to  explain why she thought Congress was justified in  trying to prolong Terry Schiavo's misery.  (Oi vey.)

    "Unrestricted immigration is a dangerous thing -- look at what happened to the Iroquois." Garrison Keillor

    by SpiderStumbled22 on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 06:58:31 PM PDT

  •  Perriello in 5th is more likely to win (4+ / 0-)

    there are a lot of reasons Nye is not doing as well as some people expected, nor as well as Kellam did.  Phil had a track record as an elected official, and had name recognition.  Glenn lacks both.  And from what I have heard is that as attractive a candidate as Glenn is he does not connect as well in person with many of the voters as he would need to in a district that is heavily Republican.   And Thelma has taken his campaign very seriously, and has been after him from the get-go.  

    The real issue will be whether there is significant new black registration and turnout within the district, which is the only real shot Nye would have.  Remember, a person like Palin will appeal to many voters in a district that includes Pat Robertson's operations, and drawing those voters out for McCain will also help Drake.

    do we still have a Republic and a Constitution if our elected officials will not stand up for them on our behalf?

    by teacherken on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 06:59:34 PM PDT

  •  any relation (0+ / 0-)


    (sorry, couldn't resist) - Status of the Electoral College

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 07:01:14 PM PDT

  •  Keep in mind that the GOP controled (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    VA Breeze, snaglepuss

    the last redistricting. The old district used to be VA Beach and Norfolk. It might have also included Hampton and Portsmouth. It didn't include the VA part of the DELMARVA peninsula.

    The 2000 redistricting removed the most Democratic precincts from Norfolk, giving them to the 3rd. Looking at a map of the current 3rd districtit is clear that the 3rd takes in the most friendly Democratic precincts from Richmond to Hampton Roads. As a result this is why VA-2 and VA-4 now elect Republicans.

    Should the Democrats control redistricting they would be best served reducing the number of Blacks in VA-3 and giving them to VA-2 and VA-4.

  •  Sad to see (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    This is a bit discouraging.  I had hoped that Kellam would take her in the last election.  It was close but Thelma won.

    Kellam probably had some help in his name recognition.  Kellam is an old family name from the area.  In comparison Glenn Nye is a virtual unkown.

    This district is outside of the area I live but I do work in it.  I was asked a colleague the other day "who is running against Thelma Drake?" and his answer was the first I had ever heard of Glenn Nye.  Perhaps Nye doesn't have the budget or he doesn't have the support but he doesn't seem to be getting his name out there as much as Kellam did 2 years ago.

  •  I've been canvassing for Obama in the second (3+ / 0-)

    I was out there today.  We are pushing hard for Nye.  People don't know who he is, but pro Obama voters are eager to send the whole team to Washington.

    Most people I speak with are suprised to find that Ms. Drake's CV is limited to a GED and a real estate license. .

    She's in lock-step with bush so I suspect she is much more vulnerable than this  poll implies.

  •  Obama has got to be doing better than this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    in VA-02 if he is winning statewide.  When Jim Webb won statewide by just 9000 votes, he lost VA-02 by just 3%, meaning the district is about 3% more Republican than the state as a whole.  In 2005, Tim Kaine actually won the district by 3% when winning by six, which is about the margin Obama seems to be leading in state polls.  

  •  Something strikes me as a bit odd about this poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    VA Breeze, snaglepuss

    Bush won here in 2004, 58-42. Obama is outperforming Kerry by 7 points.

    Bush won VA by 8 points. The latest polls all have Obama up big in the state, whether by 8 (PPP), 10 (SUSA), or 12 (Suffolk.) Obama should be doing a lot better in this district than this poll has him doing... either that, or VA will be shaping up to be a lot more of a nailbiter than people thought it was.

  •  These numbers are depressing (3+ / 0-)

    Drake is my rep.  She came to speak at a meeting a local supervisor held about a year ago.  I didn’t like her as soon as she walked through the door.  For the next half an hour all she did was regurgitate repug talking points.  My sense was that she had a marginal command of the issues, so that was about all she could do.  I really hope she gets tossed out on her lard ass.

    Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité

    by snaglepuss on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 07:23:58 PM PDT

  •  Something doesn't compute. (0+ / 0-)

      How can Obama be winning Virginia by 2-7 points and be down by NINE points in this district?  It doesn't make sense to me.  His lead has to be coming from somewhere.

    John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

    by redrelic17 on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:53:51 PM PDT

  •  I just met Glenn Nye (0+ / 0-)

    and he's terrific, but has never run for office before and seems just a little uncertain about how to run a campaign.  He was on the eastern shore today which is only 8% of his district, traditionally R, but the Dems have had a huge and successful voter registration drive here.  

    In the Suffolk poll which has Obama up 12 in VA, they had Obama up .9 in Accomack County which is shocking, and wonderful.

    The DNC staffer here said they haven't been able to get any yard signs from Nye's campaign for awhile so I wonder if he's having money problems.

  •  It is great to see the interest in Nye's campaign (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sccs, proudvirginiadem

    with Obama at the top of the ticket-who knows what will happen on Nov 4th!

    There is just as much horse sense as ever, but the horses have most of it. ~Author Unknown

    by VA Breeze on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 06:02:16 PM PDT

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