Stepping back from the Palin trooper scandal and the mob scenes at McCain events, what in the larger picture is the most likely thing to throw the election to McCain?
I love wonky websites like 538. I can't get enough of their regression analyses, weighting criteria and inside-baseball look at the election. So, it shouldn't be surprising to see one of the most insightful, wonkful diaries there, written by Rany Jazayerli on the biggest danger to a Obama-Biden election:
...this is the month where dramatic late-breaking news can tip an election. In fact, given the sizable lead that Barack Obama has now opened up – roughly six points in the national polls, with a favorable electoral map – and the crystallizing of opinions among the electorate, it may be that only dramatic late-breaking news can tip this election.
So, what is the October Surprise that could tip the election to McCain-Palin? The answer is both surprising and obvious but no one is talking about it. Hint: McCain isn't going to be the one dropping the bomb if it comes and it is transparently predictable.
Jazayerli is an Muslim Arab-American sportswriter and dermatologist (quite a combination, eh?) who writes from a unique perspective with intelligence:
Historically, a six-point lead with four weeks to go is almost impregnable barring unforeseen circumstances. Given that, it’s possible that John McCain is just waiting for the perfect time to drop a bomb on the election process.
But realistically, if McCain had any bullets left in his gun, he would have shot them by now.
If there is to be a true October Surprise – a pre-meditated attempt to use unexpected news to alter the course of the election in the 11th hour – it’s unlikely to come from the McCain campaign.
The one person who has a hope of tipping the scales is none other than Osama Bin Laden. He has the means, the motivation and he has tried to do it before.
This may sound crazy, but it isn't. I'm not referring here to the 9/11 attacks but to the 2004 election. Most people have forgotten that on the week of Oct 21, 2004, John Kerry led George Bush in electoral votes by winning margins for much of the week (~271 to 257 EV). What happened?
On Oct 29, 2004, bin Laden released a video tape that pushed a lot of the right buttons and re-energized fear and terrorism concerns that clearly helped Bush. Issues like Supreme Court nominations, the deficit and the bungled and illegal war in Iraq were temporarily swept aside for a few days but would come back with a vengeance in the subsequent spring and Bush's approval rating would plummet. And all it took was a few days. Was this the factor that swayed 2.5% of Americans to vote for Bush? Maybe, maybe not, but if anyone is likely to think that it did, it is bin Laden.
Bin Laden is a strategic and evil genius at asymmetric warfare. His rag-tag group of nutcases can't seriously engage us militarily and they have never really tried. Instead, he has leveraged us into fighting the Iraqi and Taliban government forces, and doing so in such a way as to try to ignite a worldwide war against Islam. The Bush Administration and the Republican party have marched in lockstep over a cliff in a way that Bin Laden could never dream of hoping for. Stupidity among American leaders is bin Laden's biggest ally.
As Jazayerli points out, Bin Laden is a theocratic nilihist. Bin Laden's End-of-Days dream is to have America endlessly fighting in both Iraq and Iran (remember when we attacked Iraq that Saddam was a secular enemy of Bin Laden and now Iran is a Shia-led theocratic enemy of Bin Laden). It would be icing on the cake for us to continue to be ineffectual in hunting down Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Who would bin Laden prefer to face as an enemy? McCain or Obama? Palin or Biden? He knows that his favorite president that obliged him so perfectly can't continue on, so where should Bin Laden now put his chips?
Bush won the popular vote by 2.5%, and won Ohio – whose electoral votes would have given Kerry the presidency – by only 2.1%. Correlation is not causation, but it is at least arguable that the release of the bin Laden video altered the outcome of the election. Presented with a video in which the embodiment of evil and our sworn enemy openly mocked our leader, Americans did what we did after 9/11: we closed ranks around that leader, and voted him to a second term.
Which is exactly what bin Laden wanted.
The immediate reaction of most Americans was predictable, and bin Laden used that predictability to his advantage. There is no doubt that he timed the release of the video in order to influence the election, and any appearance by bin Laden, by placing the issue of terrorism and national security in the front of voters’ minds, was likely to give a boost to the incumbent. If bin Laden truly wanted Kerry to win the election, his best move would have been no move at all. (There are two constituencies who can best help their preferred candidate by publicly supporting his opponent: terrorists and Hollywood celebrities.)
While bin Laden is many things, he is not hopelessly unintelligent. He knew that his video would help Bush’s bid for re-election, even if – or precisely because – the immediate reaction from voters (and far too many pundits) was that his intentions were the exact opposite. Somehow, we as a nation took the statements of the world’s most heinous and duplicitous man at face value.
A terrorist act is unlikely (and unnecessary--the point of terrorism isn't to blow people up but to make them fearful) since it might be stopped and would thus be a propaganda defeat. Why go to the trouble when all you need to do is make a few video tapes? These tapes wouldn't praise Obama--that would be stupid and transparent--all they need to do is attack the US government in general. As Hunter eloquently stated on another topic, it would be as easy as taunting a dog through a fence, and the public reaction would be equally predictable.
Bin Laden is almost sure to try to land a sucker punch, so what should we do? First off, don't count on the McCain camp to join hands with Obama to rebuff this transparent propaganda ploy. Sophisticated and nuanced, the McCain election campaign is not. Count on McCain to say, "I told you so!." (Please also don't be a nutter and say that McCain and bin Laden are in league with each other. They aren't--McCain genuinely hates bin Laden as much as you and I do. He just isn't as smart as you and me.)
Right now, Obama has political breathing space. It might be wise for him to republicize his militancy and determination to destroy Al-Qaeda and bin Laden, to get in front of this propaganda broadside which is likely to come in the next couple of weeks. Be the one to start talking again about taking the war to bin Laden instead of waiting until bin Laden sends a package to Al-Jazeera. Putting ads up that remind people that Obama is as committed to tracking down and destroying Al-Qaeda is not only patriotic and smart but it is a good political strategy, not unlike Kennedy's tough talk about the Soviet Union and its missiles in 1960. Don't let bin Laden vote in this election.
Go read the whole post here