The Pollster.com composite now has Obama above 50 percent for the first time. And looking at the individual polls, one can get a better sense of just how difficult it would be for McCain to surpass Obama.
First of all, there are just four polls all year that have shown McCain over 50%, all of them outliers:
Gallup, 1/10-13: M50, O45
Rassmusen, 3/22-25: M51, O41
Gallup, 9/5-7: M54-O44
Rasmussen, 9/11-13: M50, O47
In the same time frame, there have been about 36 polls that have given Obama a +50 percent result. Since October 1st, Obama has cracked 50 percent in 10 polls, while McCain has been unable to crack 45 in any. But McCain's inability to approach 50 percent isn't a recent trend -- it's been a systemic problem for his campaign all year.
McCain has had two bumps. The first was during Wrightapalooza, the second was after the RNC convention. But other than those two bumps, McCain has consistently hovered below the 45 percent mark. Truth is, he's never had much traction.
Obama, on the other hand, has consistently hovered between 45 and 50 percent. People have wanted to like him, but "he's a Muslim" emails and whatnot have gotten people to hold back, trying to determine whether to believe the smears or not. That line of resistance has burst in October, fueled by the Democratic ticket's three winning debate performances and the deteriorating financial picture, allowing Obama to surge to his best numbers (by far) of the year.
So the problem for McCain isn't just knocking Obama down a peg or three. He's been trying unsuccessfully all year to do that. More worrisome for his campaign is that the American people have never embraced him, and he's never been able to break 46 percent even during his post-convention high-water mark.
People simply do not like John McCain, and no amount of smearing of Obama is going to change that, not when 100 percent of your advertising and message today is negative.