Research 2000's poll for Daily Kos shows Republican incumbent Thelma Drake ahead of her Democratic challenger, Glenn Nye, by a healthy margin.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Glenn Nye is a highly attractive candidate in many ways, but if this poll is to be believed, Drake has a comfortable lead in her bid for reelection this fall. While she faced a nailbiter of a race against Democrat Phil Kellam in 2006, frequently trailing in polls, she's had a consistent lead over Nye this time out.
Nye is actually underperforming Obama by a few points - Obama trails 51% to 42% in VA-02. Democratic internal polling has shown Nye within striking distance of Drake - just five points back - so all is not lost in this district, but Nye looks to have an awfully hard road ahead.
It's especially unfortunate to see this in the wake of a heinous smear campaign from Drake. We'll be pulling for Nye to pull this one out.
On the web:
Glenn Nye for Congress
VA-2 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Second Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 6 and October 8, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 193 (48%)
Women 207 (52%)
Democrats 124 (31%)
Republicans 161 (40%)
Independents/Other 115 (29%)
18-29 69 (17%)
30-44 133 (33%)
45-59 123 (31%)
60+ 75 (19%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Thelma Drake? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 16% 32% 24% 12% 16%
MEN 17% 34% 23% 11% 15%
WOMEN 15% 30% 25% 13% 17%
DEMOCRATS 7% 22% 35% 18% 18%
REPUBLICANS 26% 43% 14% 7% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 15% 31% 23% 11% 20%
18-29 14% 29% 27% 14% 16%
30-44 17% 33% 22% 11% 17%
45-59 15% 31% 26% 12% 16%
60+ 18% 34% 22% 11% 15%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Glenn Nye? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 31% 22% 8% 29%
MEN 9% 29% 25% 10% 27%
WOMEN 11% 33% 19% 6% 31%
DEMOCRATS 17% 44% 12% 4% 23%
REPUBLICANS 5% 18% 33% 13% 31%
INDEPENDENTS 8% 31% 21% 7% 33%
18-29 11% 33% 25% 7% 24%
30-44 9% 28% 19% 11% 33%
45-59 10% 32% 23% 8% 27%
60+ 8% 31% 18% 10% 33%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Glenn Nye the Democrat or Thelma Drake the Republican?
DRAKE NYE UNDECIDED
ALL 51% 37% 12%
MEN 54% 36% 10%
WOMEN 48% 38% 14%
DEMOCRATS 12% 77% 11%
REPUBLICANS 83% 5% 12%
OTHER 49% 38% 13%
18-29 48% 39% 13%
30-44 53% 35% 12%
45-59 51% 38% 11%
60+ 52% 36% 12%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 51% 42% 3% 4%
MEN 55% 40% 3% 2%
WOMEN 47% 44% 3% 6%
DEMOCRATS 11% 85% 2% 2%
REPUBLICANS 84% 8% 3% 5%
OTHER 49% 43% 3% 5%
18-29 47% 44% 3% 6%
30-44 55% 40% 3% 2%
45-59 49% 43% 3% 5%
60+ 54% 41% 2% 3%