Cross posted at slothropia.com.
It is E Minus 3 in Canada. Three days, that is before Election Day.
The public tracking polls continue to be conducted and published but everybody's trading in a narrow range. The Conservatives are somewhere in the mid 30's, the Liberals in the mid to high 20's, the NDP at 22% (says Nanos), 19% (last night's Ekos) or 18% (Harris/Decima). The consensus is that the Bloc is somewhere around 40% in Quebec and the Greens are averaging around 10% (Nanos has them at 8%).
There is, as I said a narrow range in which support for each party drifts, but that is in the national polls. The real differences between pollsters are in the regional breakdowns. They various polls differ so much in this regard as to be nearly completely useless.
Campaign ads continue but will be shut down by law on Monday, I think. Voter intentions have for the most part hardened and changes from now to the end will be marginal. The parties more or less know how many seats each will end up, but that is closely held information. Conventional wisdom says follow the Leaders to know where they hope to make gains or where they need to defend against possible losses. Most of them are in Ontario and/or Quebec for the duration. May will be in the riding where she is nominated trying hard to get out of third place there.
More importantly, the parties are all preparing their E Day or GOTV operations, even as they try desperately to find that last milligram of support. This is the end game, and the final results will be determined by what is done on the ground for the next three days.
I still can't figure out what will happen in the Atlantic region. In Quebec, it looks like a near sweep for the Bloc, with the Tories severely reduced, the Liberals recalled from death (for now) and the NDP hoping for a breakthrough beyond Outremont.
Ontario could give either the Liberals or Conservatives a slight edge, with a hungry NDP happily coming up the middle and taking seats from the Liberals in the South and the Conservatives in the North.
Conservatives will make hay on the Prairies, but with the NDP seeming to come to life in Saskatchewan. Alberta distorts the national support figures for the Conservatives and will elect at least 26 Tories on Tuesday.
B.C. will give most of its seats to the Conservatives, with the NDP increasing its share and the Liberals holding what they have.
The above will all be shown to be true, unless I have been misled by the pollsters, the media and my sources on the ground.
Tomorrow night I will predict the number of seats each party will win in each province and territory.