New Hispanic/Latino numbers in battleground states. The good stuff first
crossposted on my site,.
Latino Decisions has been the one of the polling outfits that has been keeping track of the Hispanic/Latino Vote this election season. Their polls have been targeting only the Hispanic/Latino community and have been coming out since July. Since the Democratic primary the numbers for Obama have been going up. The notion that Obama couldn’t win the Hispanic vote was silly. The polls showed before the primaries were wrapped that Clinton’s support would transfer to Obama.
"The Latino vote will be critical in the Southwest and Florida, and results of this poll show very clearly that Latinos may well provide Sen. Barack Obama with the margin of victory," said Matt Barreto, a University of Washington professor of political science who is a co-partner on the research.
The survey, conducted between Aug. 18 and Sept. 10 also showed that an unprecedented number of Latinos may vote - nearly 90 percent in those states. Given the growing Latino electorate in states like Nevada, where 59,489 Latino voters have registered since 2004, a high Latino turnout could determine outcome of the national election, Barreto said.
Respondents also said the economy is their top priority. Nearly a third said they had trouble making mortgage or rent payments during the past year.
In 2004, all four Latino battleground states voted Republican. However in 2008, those states are leaning slightly toward Obama, a Democrat, according to poll averages collected by Real Clear Politics.
What has been surprising to me is that McCain has been losing ground at a rapid pace. If you look back at 2004 and go by the exit polls that showed Bush getting 40-44% of the Hispanic vote you would assume that McCain would carry the same support. First of all I the numbers came from what we all know were flawed exit polls that showed Kerry winning, but I do believe that Bush might have at least increased his parties s support among Hispanics into the high 30’s.
In 2006 we saw Hispanics / Latinos turned into a political football and we saw the demographic turn dramatically to back to Democrats. Historically Dems win the demographic by gaining around 65-68% support. In 2006 we saw dems across the nation gain support of 70+% of the demographic. The problem was that only 7% of Hispanics voted. Good news is that the numbers in NV, CO, NM, and even FL are well above the 2004 levels of support that Bush received. More importantly is that the percent that McCain is receiving is devastating. In all but FL he’s in the low 20’s. McCain has spent millions to try and win over the demographic. His campaign has stated time and time again that 40% was key to victory in Nov. The very least that they could afford to get was 35% (traditional number).
As the electoral map takes shape, it's increasingly clear the Latino vote may be decisive," said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund, which helped pay for the survey. "In key battleground states," he added, "Latino voters are ready to vote in huge numbers, and a significant percentage is still persuadable. Underestimating the Latino vote could be disastrous for either party."
Latino Decisions, a public opinion firm whose partners include Barreto, Stanford University political scientist Gary Segura and Pacific Market Research, telephoned 1,600 Latino registered voters drawn equally from official statewide files in the four states. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 percent for each state.
In 2008, the Latino vote is expected to increase to 9 million, or roughly 8 percent of voters. By comparison, 7.6 million Latinos voted in 2004 and 5.9 million in 2000.
Obama’s numbers have only gone up and up and up and are now at all time highs or holding around his highs from the early Sept. polls that were mostly conducted in August. He's been holding and increasing these leads since the July/August polls. With 3 weeks left the ground is just too great to make up. I would not get too upset about the Hispanic vote in FL because Republican’s normally win the states demographic because of the Cuban vote. What is nice is that Obama is doing better than normal for Dems in the state. More good news is that the percent of voters going to the polls this year is expected to increase as noted above. Why you ask?
IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID!
The issue carries acoss all demographics and all states
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
(MAY NAME TWO ISSUES)
CO FL NM NV
Jobs/Economy 48% 51% 55% 54%
War in Iraq 27% 31% 34% 25%
Health care 20% 17% 20% 13%
Immigration reform 13% 11% 11% 27%
Here are comparison numbers from 2004. Look at FL. That is important. Obama is doing much better than Kerry. The expected increas in turnout with Obama's current averages is the making of a big big night on Nov. 4th. Keep up the work and make it happen.
November 2004 (Latinos - NEP exits)
State Kerry Bush
Colorado 68% 30%
New Mexico 56% 44%
Nevada 60% 39%
Florida 44% 56%
UPDATE: Latino Decision stopped polling Texas, New York, and California in July because Obama was already BLOWING McCain out fo the water with high 60's and low 70's support. They decided to focus on the battle ground states. Democratic Corp tracked the AZ last month and showed Obama winning the vote there by big margins too.