I have a Ph.D. in modern U.S. political history and teach at a major American University. A recent diarist asked what historians might say about the 2008 election, several years from now. After the jump, I give a few of my thoughts...
I suspect we will be writing about some of these things:
- Obviously, the historic first win by an African American candidate. In the larger context of American history, this is epic on a grand scale.
- The repudiation of 20-30 years of conservative, laissez-faire rule, punctuated by the global economic meltdown. If so, then perhaps we will look back and see this election as the turning point toward a new form of capitalism with human need and environmental sustainability at the core, rather than human greed and selfishness. If not, we will look back in disgust at ourselves for this missed opportunity.
- Linked to the previous point, perhaps we will be writing about the emergence of a new liberal/progressive moment in American history.
- We will surely see the sorry pandering of John McCain to the religious right by selecting a clearly unqualified VP candidate in Palin as a key blunder, even though it also created some sizzle for his campaign. I suspect, in the end, the historical judgement on Palin will be negative and the McCain campaign, overall, will be seen for the trainwreck that it has been.
- We will look back at the Obama campaign as one of the most effective in American history, where an underdog candidate first toppled the wife of a former president who had all the advantages and then the "war hero" of the opposition. We will see more clearly the pioneering role of the Obama campaign in utilizing digital technologies to mobilize constituencies.
- Perhaps we will write about the emergence of electoral realignment, should Obama win in a landslide, have a successful first term and solidify his gains in 2012
- Perhaps we may look back and see this as a turning point in global environmental affairs, the moment when the U.S., and the world, began to seriosuly confront climate change and the broader environmental crisis. Again, if not, we will look back in disgust at ourselves for not doing what obviously needed to be done to save humanity and the planet.
- Perhaps, we will look back and see this as the beginning of a new era in global economics, when nation-states realized that they needed to create international institutions and policies to deal with economic crisis.
Now, of course, all the "perhaps" bullets above are dependent on how things play out from here. It is hard to tell how we will write the history of the 2008 election, without knowing what comes next, over the next 20 years or so. As such, my post is a bit of speculation and hopeful thinking from a progressive perspective... but we can all dream, right?
What do you think we'll be saying about the 2008 election 20-30 years from now?