This much is clear: McCain's strategy of character assassination over the past week has failed. The past week of national and state polling has only shown continued deterioration of McCain's position, and as DemFromCT's detailed post shows again this morning, the campaign's recent efforts to tar Obama with the terrorism label has done nothing but driven up McCain and Palin's negatives.
So, accepting that the "go negative" ploy hasn't worked, the question for the McCain campaign becomes, what next? Nate Silver has a very astute observation this morning.
The McCain campaign is planning on a major "reboot" of its campaign in some point in advance of Wednesday night's debate. This will take on something of the form that Bill Kristol advocates in his must-read Monday AM piece in the Times, including some combination of (i) pledging to run a positive campaign; (ii) firing/demoting Steve Schmidt and or/Rick Davis; (iii) apologizing for his campaign's tone. In fact, Kristol's column may be something of a trial balloon for this strategy.
How does Obama combat this?
I think Nate is absolutely right. All the other pieces fit: Palin toning down the rhetoric, McCain talking back to his own "base", and the rest from this past weekend.
Obama needs to get out in front of this, and do it now. That's the best way to blunt the comeback attempt from McCain in the last few weeks ahead.
Nate Silver goes on to say:
What the McCain campaign really, really doesn't want is for this move to be portrayed as desperate stunt. McCain has already developed a reputation for being a bit erratic under pressure -- the ABC/Post poll now shows that a 48-45 plurality of voters trust Obama to handle an "unexpected major crisis" -- and Bill Burton and Robert Gibbs must be foaming at the mouth waiting to spin something like this.
And that's just what Obama needs to do. Obama needs to come out, today or tomorrow, in the wake of escalating tensions in the campaign atmosphere (addressing both the comments from Congressman Lewis and the escalating anger from the Republican base) like he did in response to the injection of Rev. Wright and race into the Primary campaign.
He needs to come out and perhaps insinuate, if not pledge directly, a return to the "New Kind of Politics" theme of his early Primary run. He needs to declare that we have slipped back into "silly season" over the past few weeks, and that while he can't control what the "other guy" is going to do, he will review all of his campaign's ads and ensure that they are focused on what really matters... Getting Americans the help they deserve for the future, and not focusing on the he-said, she-said of everyday politics.
If he does this, and does it now, he will show leadership in this issue, and will build upon his already established theme of a new kind of politics. It will seriously blunt the effect of any kind of McCain campaign shake-up, and block the ability of McCain to blame his problems on the failed campaign managers (who he will quickly fire or shuffle off the stage). And, more importantly, it costs Obama almost nothing to do it. Obama's ads are widely viewed as more positive and issue oriented because they are! All he needs to do is go through and pull or edit some of his more "under the radar" Radio and small market ads which push the envelope. McCain's transformation, and transformation of his base and the people at his rallies, is going to be much more difficult and more dirty than that by comparison. It will make McCain look like a follower, rather than a leader, and will support what the voters already know and believe about Barack Obama, that he is the change we need!