Today (Tuesday) is voting day in Canada's 40th federal general election. The first polls close in Newfoundland at 8:30 pm Newfoundland Time. The major results will start coming in from Quebec and Ontario at 9:30 Eastern Time.
For those Kossacks who wish to watch or listen, I'd recommend CBC livestream or radio, found here.
Let me say out front that I'll be rooting for my New Democratic Party. The NDP is the more-progressive alternative to the Liberal Party. But the main story is: will the combined weight of the progressive parties knock Steve Harper's Conservatives out of power, or at least deny them the majority government they want soooooo badly?
On the second half of that question, the answer appears to be "YES!" Harper himself admitted over the weekend that there will most likely be another minority, Liberal or Conservative. The polls agree, especially the Nanos tracking poll, which has been the most accurate during the past five campaigns.
On the first half, it's a toss-up. The Cons are leading nationally but, as I pointed out in an earlier diary, the Con vote is not as "efficient" as the Lib or NDP vote. The Cons have huge support in Alberta, for example, way more than they need to win all 28 seats there (although they are in trouble in one). So that's a lot of wasted votes under our absurd first-past-the-post system. Everyone who knows the numbers and the system know this, which is one reason Dion is saying he's "running to win".
If Harper fails to get his majority (very likely) there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth in the Con ranks. This is Harper's third kick at the can; he lost once in 2004 and eked out a small minority in 2006. Another minority will make his future very problematical. An actual loss and the knives will come out for sure.
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Newfoundland - Premier Danny Williams, who is extremely popular on The Rock, has been waging an "Anybody But Conservative" campaign, in spite of the fact that he himself is a Con, but of the milder Progressive Conservative brand. (Confused yet?) Williams has it in for Harper due to Harper unilaterally overturning an offshore gas and oil revenue agreement called the Atlantic Accord. Will Williams cost Harper his 3 Newfoundland seats?
Nova Scotia - Bill Casey is a former Con who was kicked out of the party for his refusal to take the Harper line on the Atlantic Accord. He's running as an independent. Will he hold his seat of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley? Likely yes.
Central Nova, where Green Party leader Elizabeth May is taking on Defense Minister Peter McKay, and no Lib is offering. A tough challenge for May, and the NDP might actually walk up the middle.
My own riding of West Nova. The Liberals won this narrowly in 2006. This is probably the only chance of a Con pick-up in the province.
Quebec - The Bloc Quebecois has come on strong in the last weeks. Will the Libs and the Cons manage to hold the 11 seats they each currently hold? Will Justin Trudeau, son of the late Prime Minister, win his seat? And will the NDP elect a member from Quebec for the first time in a general election? (We have won by-elections, including one member running today for re-election.)
Ontario - The big battleground. 1/3rd of all seats in Parliament. The Cons need a breakthrough here, especially in Toronto, but the numbers aren't looking good for them. Here is where the NDP could pick up seats to historic levels, especially in Northern Ontario. And will the Greens actually manage to elect a member here or anywhere else in the country? Is Green support in the polls real, or is it a parking vote?
Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta - The Cons have to hold nearly everything they have here to have a chance to hold on to their minority.
British Columbia - The other battleground. BC has a political culture all its own. All 3 major parties are in play across most of the province. The final reckoning will likely be here. Expect fireworks.
MY PREDICTION:
A very narrow minority for the Cons, with the final results unknown for weeks due to recounts. It's going to be very, very close. But there is spirit of change in the air. I think you'll see a lot of changes in the details north of the border before the dust settles, although the overall outcome will likely be very much the same as in 2006.