Jim Himes vs Chris Shays, Rounds 1 and 2
My notes and commentary from two debates in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District on Tuesday, October 14th.
I grew up in the 4th CD, but moved away in 1994 - I spent a few days in town for a family reunion and did some volunteering for the Coordinated campaign. On Tuesday I attended the first and second of the Himes vs Shays debates, I'm told there are 7 in total scheduled.
See my notes after the flip, transcribed and edited in flight from CT to FL last night. Sequence of events in the debates is not linear.
Cross posted on OpenLeft - I am not affiliated with any candidate or campaign
Jim Himes vs Chris Shays, Rounds 1 and 2
My notes and commentary from two debates in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District on Tuesday, October 14th.
Round 1: Housatonic College - Health Care Specific
Each candidate had 30 minutes of cumulative time, to be used at their discretion, free to rebut their opponent at the cost of their own time. At ~25 minutes consumed by each candidate they gave closing statements, followed by two questions from the audience. Moderated by the President of the Bridgeport Regional Business Council, questions asked by three panel members, a doctor, the managing editor of the Connecticut Post and ??? (a professor maybe?).
Himes opened with a narrative of his background and why he is running, well delivered. He made eye contact and spoke with passion and energy.
Shays opened with a couple jokes, questioning why Himes, a defender of endangered species, would try to eliminate an endangered species - a bi-partisan/independent minded Congressman and the last New England Republican. Following the joke, he went into a lengthy personal biography, read directly from a script on the podium, he made little or no eye contact for the duration of his 5 minute intro. The oddity being that this was personal information, he was reading the names of the schools he attended and the things he himself has done in his life.
Shays touted an 88 page book his campaign has produced containing the "facts about his record", and he spent several minutes going through the contents of the book. He referred to the "outrageous statements" and "scurrilous " mailings sent out by the "negative attack driven" Himes campaign.
Himes responded that his mailings and statements are backed up by footnotes and facts, facts are not negative attacks.
On Health Care, Shays said "Barack Obama is right..." launching into his support of an extension of the Federal Employee Health Benefits Plan to all Americans. In later responses he attacked Himes for suggesting Medicare should be negotiating prices like the VA does, saying "Price Controls" will kill the pharmaceutical industry, development will cease if they are dictated what prices will be. He went in depth in citing a particular pharmaceutical company from California he had spoken to that had told him if there were price controls they would not have developed a particular drug as the costs of R&D would exceed the potential profits. How he got from "negotiate prices" to "price controls" you wonder? He suggested that the Federal Government, through Medicare, could not possibly negotiate prices, they could only dictate prices as they have too much leverage, he used the word "monopoly" in fact. It seems that Congressman Shays has forgotten the effectiveness of free markets and American innovation.
Himes talked about the need for true universal health care, no exclusions due to "pre existing conditions." He told a story about a guy he had met yesterday who told him after losing his job and going on to Cobra Coverage he had to choose which of his twin daughters to cover, because he couldn't afford to cover both. This seems odd to me, as my understanding is that covering one child is "family coverage" and additional children incur no additional costs. Anyone know the facts on this? Fine print aside, Himes was passionate, charismatic and clearly knowledgeable on the issues of Health Care and the Economy as related to Health care.
Shays repeated his scoldings of Himes' campaign mailings and ads, citing that he had been unable to sleep due the mailing questioning his support of Veterans the Himes Campaign had sent out.
When challenged on taxes, Shays saying Himes lies about not supporting tax increases because he has said he would allow the Bush Tax Cuts to expire, Himes responded by challenging the notion of the Bush Tax Cuts. He said it is unprecedented and immoral to cut taxes in the run up to a war while increasing spending substantially. He called it "deferring taxes to our children and our children's children," not a tax cut, holding up a credit card to explain how the government is paying the bills for their reckless actions. That is an interesting tact, denying a tax cut and calling it out as a tax deferment, I like it.
Overall I found Himes performance to be strong and more compelling than the incumbent. What he failed to do was effectively shut down Shays self portrayal as an independent moderate, which is really the challenge to winning this district. This redefinition of Shays has been part of their message/media effort for some time, but does not seem to have taken root in the district from my own (less than scientific) surveying.
Round 2: Norwalk Chamber of Commerce / 12 News Debate
Time limited responses (2 minutes I think?), no rebutal time, all questions asked by the 12News anchor, submitted by the Chamber (or some submitted by the chamber?)
Shays opened with the same canned script biography, read again, staring at his podium rather than making eye contact with the attendees.
Himes opened similar to his morning opening, speaking much more comfortably and emotionally than Shays did, not reading the lines from a script helps.
A great deal of the back and forth was the same, though in this format they could not respond with direct rebutals, though they could rebut in the answer to the next question, with much more strict time constraints.
Shays blamed the economic crisis on Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and Low Income Home Mortgages, saying he advocated for more regulation and oversight thereoof as early as 2002. He said it was Democrats who protected the corruption in FM/FM and he and fellow Republicans were pushing for regulation. He said "The fundementals of our economy are sound." Ya, stealing lines from McCain is sure to win him more votes.
Himes countered with gasp logic and facts. He has no chance of winning folks, logic and facts will doom any candidate. He explained that the sub-prime loans of FM/FM and Low Income Home Loans are roughly six trillion dollars, while the CDS/other exotics market are $60 Trillion. He went further explaining that it was the Gramm bill that mandated no regulation on CDS/etc and Chris Shays had supported that. Himes attacked on the fundementals lines, saying that "jobs are the fundementals of our economy," citing the number of jobs lost since Dec 2007. This exchange was a clear win for Himes, who showed his credentials on the financial systems and economy (12 years at Goldman Sachs).
Shays moved on to attacking Himes for suggesting at some point earlier in this campaign that Shays is on the wrong committee. Himes said Shays should be on Transportation not Financial Services. Why any challengers are even wading into the territory of committee assignments baffles me, its far toO inside baseball for the bulk of persuadable voters to care about, yet I've seen several 2008 challengers wade into these waters. One Democratic Challenger suggested he would like a spot on Appropriations, who wants to explain to him how many incumbents would be ahead of him in that line?
Shays again went through his book, again called out Himes for outrageous statements and the Vets mailer in particular. Again I found it to come off like a child blaming the broken window on the baseball.
Update: forgotten bit - Congressman Shays attacked Himes for his proposals, saying they would increase the already high tax burden on the 4th District. He emphasized they were already excessively burdened with a poor rate of return, getting only 69 Cents back for every Dollar they pay in taxes. I found this to be fairly amusing, he's been the Congressman for 21 years, isn't that his fault?
In a foreign policy segment, Shays refered to his judgment being right, to support the surge, bouncing of some of Himes comments earlier in this debate and in the morning debate about Afghanistan being the place we need more troops, Shays rejected that notion, saying that his experience told him such a move would cause harm and thwart progress. Himes retorted that it was Shays experience that supported George Bush's call to war, the same experience that repeatedly proclaimed progress was being made on the ground in Iraq in 2003-2005, that voted repeatedly against bills with time tables after campaign in support of them in August of 2006, "if that's Chris Shays experience on Iraq, I think I'll pass on his advice for Afghanistan." He further mocked Shays on his call for time tables saying "We've seen that movie before" campaigning to support time tables and then voting against them after the election.
As they did at the first event, the Shays campaign camped the exit door and handed every person leaving a copy of the 88 page book, I have two now. I'd estimate the printing cost, depending on volume around $3/unit, maybe less. The design costs are negligible, its just text and graphs produced by basic office apps, nothing fancy , no graphics or pictures, no fancy layouts.
On their table, the Shays campaign also had aluminum water bottles they were handing out, I'd guess .6L, multiple colors available, with a Shays logo on the side and a metal belt clip (caribiner style). I just note this because it is an expensive give away item, like the 88-page handout book.
In terms of content at the podium, I give the nod to Jim Himes by a small margin, maybe 55-45. Again, he didn't do enough to counter/destroy Shays self presentation as an Independent/Moderate. I certainly would have liked to hear Himes link Shays to McCain and Bush more/better. Shays had the edge on the handouts/materials, the 88 page book is substantial and completely boring - perfect to make most voters believe you without checking for themselves. Shays also had excellent visibility at the Bridgeport Columbus Day parade on Sunday, with supporters handing out balloons and Shays participating in the parade himself. Himes had no presence at all despite listing the event on their website. This is a fairly significant event, particularly among Italian-Americans in the region.
I believe Jim Himes is far and away a better representative for the district based on his issue positions, he displaced intelligence and competence in both debates, and seems to have the likability needed to unseat a popular challenger. The campaign has had it's struggles over the past 15 or so months, though not in the fund raising department where they have consistently kicked ass. Under new management since the end of the summer, they seem to be on a much better track and are working hard in the field doing the dirty work of direct contact aggressively and actively. If they had the campaign they have now 9 months ago, this would be moving towards a blowout for Himes. If Shays continues to say dumb things and somehow is shed of his mantle of "independent", Himes will win this seat, if he doesn't, it could go either way. Turnout may skew this race disconnected Shays/Himes with depressed R turnout and increased Dem turnout, particularly among minority (Obama) voters from Bridgeport in particular who have no allegiance to (and likely little knowledge of) Chris Shays.