Cross posted at slothropia.com
Here is a twofer diary, with a Canadian election wrap up and my impressions of tonight's final Obama/McCain bout.
First the fresh meat.
Just finished watching the last presidential debate. I was surprised at how effective Schieffer was as moderator, at least in contrast with his three predecessors. He go the two principals to engage each other, and explore issues more substantively than we've seen in the other debates.
Like the last time, Obama won by not losing. McCain lost by trying too hard. He finally attempted to pin Obama with the Ayers matter, but it did him no good, I am guessing. More broadly, McCain's strategy of attacking constantly was probably a loser. Nothing wrong or unethical about critiquing your opponent, but an infinite string of attacks is not what voters want right now.
The MSNBC crew is saying that McCain made a big blunder when he ridiculed the health of the mother exception in relation to late term abortion legislation. I agree. I couldn't believe how tone deaf McCain was at that moment.
In summary then, McCain performed well, and did his best to put Obama on the defensive. He just didn't succeed. This was more like a real debate than the previous performances were, so give it to McCain on points, despite a string of goofy utterances and mannerisms. Acorn? Honky, please!
And yes, he is still losing. We'll see shortly how the viewing audience scored the match.
And here is one now. An early release of the CBS poll calls it Obama 53%, McCain 22% and 24% called it a draw.
In regard to the Canadian election, while it is clear who the winners and losers were, it is a little more difficult to say why each party won or lost - and what that means for the future.
Like almost all other observers, I expected the Conservatives to win in the sense of getting the most seats. I did not expect them to get as many seats as they did, although the final Nanos poll caught a last minute uptick for Team Harper. Clearly the Tories had a steadier base than the other parties, and perhaps the stock market wild fires helped them. Maybe for a critical number of Canadians, Harper and the Conservatives are the devil they know. Harper is safe for now (PMs usually are) but he should think three times before going to the people early.
They don't know Dion and now will never have that pleasure. Liberals expected to lose, but they will no doubt punish Dion for the magnitude of the loss. They can live with the size of the new caucus, but seem to be having a hard time believing how few votes they got. They probably believe that all they need is a new leader, someone who can speak both French and English fluently, who can continue the comeback in Quebec while making Western gains. Someone, in other words, who can turn wine into water and raise a Lazarus like party from the dead. Pick Ignatieff, and lose progressives. Pick Rae and lose the business wing and most of Ontario. Maybe a compromise candidate can be found...wait that's how they got into this mess. Also they are broke.
The Bloc did well, but where do they go from here. Duceppe is done. Is there another leader waiting? Will they continue to claim their mission as serving the interests of Quebec, rather than promoting sovereignty? Can they work with other parties, like the NDP, to promote progressive legislation? Is the sovereignty movement dead or sleeping (I say sleeping, but for how long I don't know).
Despite not getting the votes the pollsters all said they would, the New Democrats made some important gains and expanded their base into significant new territory. As Angus Ricker said in comments at slothropia.com, "There is a chance to make these seats NDP heartland." The NDP has representation in all provinces except PEI and Saskatchewan (!!)and the Saskatchewan comeback is just a matter of time and redistribution.
Almost 20 years ago, I wrote something for the current NDP leader (probably shredded immediately) about how green politics were on the way, and how the Canadian left would have to deal with that in some way. I recommended keeping the environmentalists and labour in the same tent, especially in B.C. and in cities. I know, easier said than done. How does one do that, exactly. And things have gotten more complicated since then of course.
But at some point, disappointed Greens may go party shopping, and the NDP might be a friendly place for them.