Because you've been working so hard for so long, I thought I'd give you a brief moment to relax and fantasize about what the results are going to look like coming in on Election Night. All projection times are based on a careful study of elections over the last couple of decades. Poll closing times are from the Green Papers, supplemented by the interpretation on NPR's website. Results are my own optimistic gloss on the latest take at fivethirtyeight. For easier reading, all times are Eastern Standard (although I'm in the Pacific timezone myself, and I suspect the presidential candidates will be in their home timezones). I know I don't cover House races or other downballot contests here, but frankly neither do most network newscasts on Election Night, other than giving the big picture. At any rate, enjoy...
THROUGHOUT THE DAY
News reports dwell on the very heavy turnout, particularly among first-time voters, including young adults and African-American and Latino/-a voters. Late in the afternoon, exit polls are leaked. They look good for us.
7 PM
Polls close in Vermont, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, and Kentucky. The networks immediately call Kentucky and South Carolina for McCain and Vermont for Obama. They predict that the Republicans have retained the governor's chairs in Vermont and Indiana and that Lindsey Graham has won re-election to the Senate. In Virginia, Mark Warner becomes the first Democrat to pick up a Senate seat. No one is able to project who has won the Georgia or Kentucky senate races.
Electoral votes: McCain 16 - 3 Obama
Senate: Democrats +1
7:30 PM
Polls close in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Ohio. No network will project a presidential winner in any of these states, nor will they call the North Carolina statewide races. Jay Rockefeller and Joe Manchin handily win re-election in West Virginia.
8 PM
Polls close in Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Illinois. The networks project right away that Obama has won DC, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. They call Mississippi, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Tennessee for McCain. No projection is made in Missouri or Florida. Senate races are called for the Republicans in Maine, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, and the Democrats in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois. Joe Biden wins re-election to his Senate seat. Thad Cochran is projected to win re-election, but the Musgrove-Wicker race is too close to call. The Democrats hold onto the governors' mansions in New Hampshire and Delaware and Jay Nixon wins a convincing victory, as indicated by the exit polls, in Missouri. Lastly, Jeanne Shaheen is projected to take away another Republican Senate seat in New Hampshire.
With every network able to project the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania winners from the exit polls alone, already there is a slight sense of blood in the water, though most anchors remain professionally cagey. Talk turns to what a good night the Democrats are likely to have in the Senate.
Electoral votes: Obama 103 - 49 McCain
Senate: Democrats +2
Gubernatorial: Democrats +1
8:30 pm
Polls close in Arkansas. In another bad piece of news for John McCain, there are still no projections made here or in any other outstanding state, except that the Democratic Party has maintained its unbroken record of retaining all its Senate seats.
8:50 pm
The first world-rocking development transpires when the Associated Press calls the presidential election in Virginia for Barack Obama and other networks follow. Pandemonium breaks out in the blogosphere. Commentators gravely note that McCain cannot afford to lose any other Bush state.
Electoral votes: Obama 116 - 49 McCain
9 pm
Polls close at this hour in Rhode Island, New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. The networks make immediate calls as follows: Barack Obama has won Rhode Island, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New York. John McCain has won Wyoming, South Dakota, Kansas, Louisiana, Arizona, and Texas. The networks project that McCain has also won most of Nebraska, but the Second District and the Senate race are too close to call. Democratic senators are re-elected handily in South Dakota, Rhode Island, Louisiana, and Michigan. John Cornyn has won re-election, and the GOP has held onto Kansas as well. John Hoeven has kept the North Dakota governor's mansion in Republican hands, as was universally forecast. The Minnesota Senate race cannot be called at this hour, but the Udall cousins have both been projected to win their elections. TV and radio newscasters are still unwilling to tip their hands, but there is a growing aura that something massive is changing in America.
Electoral votes: Obama 188 - 118 Mccain
Senate: Democrats +4
9:15 pm
Networks cut away from analysts as one to bring the news that the AP has now projected Barack Obama as the winner in Indiana and, in a stunning upset, Georgia. While no anchor, this year, will come out and declare the election over before voting wraps up on the West Coast, several do openly say that it will take a miracle for John McCain to turn this one around. To add insult to injury, Georgia's early voting has borne further fruit with the election of Jim Martin as United States Senator. Max Cleland, radiant, is interviewed on national TV. The McCain brain trust is reported to be closeted with the Senator and shots of dejected Republicans in hotel ballrooms begin to be played.
Electoral votes: Obama 214 - 118 McCain
Senate: Democrats +5
9:30 pm
With most of the rest of the vote left to be counted coming from solidly Democratic counties and with Barack Obama leading in the exit polls and the partial returns, the networks call Florida for the Democratic ticket. With that bit of poetic justice, no one on TV can restrain themselves any longer. Noting that California would have to fall into the ocean before John McCain could win the election, commentators say that a concession is only a matter of time. Shots are shown of crowds filling the streets of East Coast cities in celebration. Obama campaign staffers modestly relate that they are heartened by the early returns and that they are waiting for the votes to be counted before they can say more.
Electoral votes: Obama 241 - 118 McCain
10 pm
Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Utah, and Nevada. Barack Obama immediately picks up Iowa and John McCain gets five more electoral votes from Utah, where the Republicans are projected to win yet another consecutive governor's race. The Democrats keep their Iowa Senate seat. Brian Schweitzer easily wins a second term in Montana. There is no presidential projection there, though, nor in Nevada.
Electoral votes: Obama 248 - 123 McCain
10:05 pm
The networks are ready to project three Southern Senate races now, and they tell us with astonishment that all three are set to go to the Democrats. Kay Hagan has knocked off Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina; Ronnie Musgrove has ended the short-lived Senate career of Roger Wicker in Mississippi, a state that Barack Obama turns out to have missed winning by only a few thousand votes; and, in the sweetest and least expected Senate outcome of the night, the Republicans have been Daschled in Kentucky. Comparisons to the presidential-Senate sweep of 1980 begin to be made.
Senate: Democrats +8
10:10 pm
No sooner has the bad news for Republicans in the Senate sunk in than they receive even worse news: Barack Obama has now been forecast as the winner of New Mexico's and Colorado's combined fourteen electoral votes. Millions of Democrats are already blissfully drunk, while on the West Coast thousands more are still imploring people to get to the polls, some oblivious that they have already carried the day.
Electoral votes: Obama 262 - 123 McCain
10:15 pm
The world will long remember 10:15 pm EST on November 4, 2008, as the moment that an African-American man was first elected President of the United States. At that hour, the Associated Press is the first to project that Barack Obama has won Missouri's eleven electoral votes. Blogs are unable to contain the traffic and many go down briefly altogether.
Electoral votes: Obama 273 - 123 McCain
10:30 pm
Still feverishly discussing the implications of the news from Missouri, analysts are again interrupted by the newscasters announcing, at the bottom of the hour, that they are finally able to project a result in North Carolina, where the Demorats have won the gubernatorial contest and, in an yet another upset on a long night of upsets, Barack Obama has carried the state that so narrowly escaped Bill Clinton's grasp in 1992.
Electoral votes: Obama 288 - 123 McCain
10:35 pm
Five minutes later, Barack Obama's victory in West Virginia is announced: another Democratic stronghold reclaimed. His trip to the state as part of an Appalachian swing in late October is credited with bridging the gap.
Electoral votes: Obama 293 - 123 McCain
11:00 pm
With less drama than could have been expected just a day before, the polls close in Idaho, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawai'i. Barack Obama is instantly projected to win in all four Pacific states, with McCain left to pick up the scant consolation prize of Idaho's four electoral votes. Jim Risch, alas, retains Larry Craig's Senate seat, but there is no projection in Oregon. Unsuprisingly, the Washington gubernatorial election is far too close to call.
Electoral votes: Obama 370 - 127 McCain
11:05 pm
Results are finally in from Nebraska, where, despite Scott Kleeb's valiant campaign, Mike Johanns has narrowly won re-election. The sting is somewhat eased by the news that, with only one precinct left to report, Barack Obama has apparently carried the Second Congressional District.
Electoral votes: Obama 371 - 127 McCain
11:15 pm
With nearly all the votes counted in Arkansas and North Dakota, McCain has narrowly won the former, but the latter's three electoral votes add to Barack Obama's pile. Word comes that McCain is waiting to concede until the polls close in Alaska out of respect for Sarah Palin. A minute later, more word comes: Al Franken has beat Norm Coleman in Minnesota. Joe Lieberman's future becomes the subject of media discussion.
Electoral votes: Obama 374 - 133 McCain
Senate: Democrats +9
11:30 pm
The networks project two more states for Barack Obama: Nevada and, in still another surprising development, Montana, where he has won a narrow victory. He has now exceeded even Clinton's best result. Frenzied crowds in Chicago are already chanting "O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA!" in front of the stage where he is set to deliver his victory address in, we learn, an hour's time. Republican pundits are practically weeping on national television. Speculation begins about party-switching. The Democrats are on track to gain well over two dozen House seats, we learn.
Electoral votes: Obama 382 - 133 McCain
11:40 pm
Running a victory lap, and despite the Republican Party's vicious attempt to suppress the vote, Barack Obama is at last projected to win Ohio's twenty electoral votes.
Electoral votes: Obama 402 - 133 McCain
12:00 midnight
With the polls now finally closed in Alaska, which the Republicans do carry, we know tonight's final electoral vote tally: Barack Obama has won 402 electoral votes to John McCain's 136. Obama is forecast to win the popular vote by something in the neighborhood of ten percent. While we are waiting for John McCain to take the stage, which he is expected to do any second, we learn that the Democratic Party has emerged victorious yet again, with House Speaker Jeff Merkley defeating Gordon Smith in Oregon. When Joe Lieberman's name is mentioned, in various parts of the country there is cackling and there is rubbing together of hands.
Electoral votes: Obama 402 - 136 Mccain
Senate: Democrats +10
12:05 am
John McCain officially concedes the 2008 presidential election.
12:30 am
Barack Obama takes the stage in Chicago, jubilant despite the lateness of the hour. His words are calm but inspiring and he gives special attention to thanking the millions of volunteers that made this night possible. No one watching will ever forget this moment.
Wednesday, November 5
By the end of the day, it appears that Chris Gregoire has eked out the narrowest of re-election victories in Washington. Even better, Mark Begich has defeated Ted Stevens in Alaska. Press and online commentary takes a moment to acknowledge this clean sweep of Senate and gubernatorial races with no turnovers to the Republicans, although most speculation is already turning to President-Elect Obama's transition team and Cabinet. The Democrats have won thirty House seats and may win one or two more before the counting is done. Historians reach back to 1980 and 1932 freely as they discuss precedent. In truth, though, commentators acknowledge that what has been accomplished is in some respects completely without precedent. The stock market soars. Snap polls in the days to come will show a higher approval rating for Barack Obama even than his popular vote percentage in the election.
Senate: Democrats +11
Gubernatorial: Democrats +1
* * *
Whew! Okay, was that as good for you as it was for me? Do you want to see it happen? Then, I love you, but GET BACK TO WORK! And so shall I, tomorrow. Sweet dreams.