Charlie Cook is, along with Stuart Rothenberg, a conservative prognosticator of elections. He runs significantly behind the rest of us in terms of seeing takeover opportunities, and is slow to acknowledge the reality on the ground. In short, he is a mainstream pundit with a ton of information at his disposal.
Which is why the fact that he made 25 changes to races today, and ALL 25 were in favor of the Democrats, is really quite a big deal.
His entire list of changes is after the flip.
Here is the list of updates from this morning:
- DELAWARE | Governor: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat
- MISSOURI | Governor: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
- SOUTH CAROLINA | District 1: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- VIRGINIA | District 11: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
- TENNESSEE | District 4: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat
- PENNSYLVANIA | District 8: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat
- PENNSYLVANIA | District 4: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
- OHIO | District 16: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
- OHIO | District 2: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- NEW HAMPSHIRE | District 2: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat
- MISSOURI | District 9: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- MISSISSIPPI | District 1: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
- MARYLAND | District 1: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- KANSAS | District 2: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
- INDIANA | District 9: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
- INDIANA | District 3: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- ILLINOIS | District 14: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
- ILLINOIS | District 8: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat
- GEORGIA | District 12: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat
- CONNECTICUT | District 5: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat
- CALIFORNIA | District 50: Solid Republican to Lean Republican
- CALIFORNIA | District 46: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- CALIFORNIA | District 4: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- CALIFORNIA | District 3: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- ARIZONA | District 8: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
And here is a list of the House races that Cook thinks are competitive.
Some notes:
Cook now has 4 Publican seats as likely Dem pick-ups (AZ-01 (open used to be Renzi), NY-13 (open, used to be Fossella), NY-25 (open, used to be Walsh)), and VA-11 (open, used to be Davis), and 2 more as lean Dem pick-up (IL-11 (open, used to be Weller) and OH-16 (open, used to be Regula)). In sum, 2 scandals and 4 "moderate" Publicans.
In addition to the 6 Pubs likely to flip, 56 Cons are in some trouble. Conversely, only 25 Dems make the list, and only 1 Dem is in any real danger, and that is ex-Publican Tim Mahoney in FL-16 (good riddance to bad rubbish I say).
When a conservative guy like Cook makes 25 changes, and all 25 all to the benefit of the Dems, you cannot help but smile. All in all, excellent news.