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A short diary, because given the fact that we are just 19 days away from Election Day, this is a very short polling day. No national numbers, and only 22 individual polls.

This does not reflect last night's debate. Worth noting--McCain made up ground again in the "big five" tracking polls. By this morning, he had erased nearly all of the gains that Obama made after debate #2 on 10/7. Of course, one has to believe that any forward progress McCain was making was effectively stalled by last night's debate rout (if insta-polls and focus groups are to be believed).

Follow me....

PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS

Surprisingly, not a single new national poll today. This strikes me as particularly strange, given how close we are getting to the election. NBC has not polled in ten days...a rather strange time to take a vacation, if you ask me.

The "big five" trackers gave us a mixed record today, with McCain getting the preponderance of the movement. Two polls moved his way today, with Rasmussen going down to four points (50-46), and Gallup's likely voter II model (the one I am now using) slid to six points (51-45). Both of those are the best results for McCain in more than two weeks.

Meanwhile, two of the other three trackers held steady today. These were the two polls that have historically been the most favorable for Obama: Research 2000 (Obama +11) and Diageo/Hotline (Obama +8). Meanwhile, Zogby loses its status as Matt Drudge's favorite pollster, since it actually showed movement to Obama last night (up to Obama +5).

As for the quasi-trackers, IBD-TIPP has Obama still at +3 (unchanged) while GWU/Battleground continued to tighten off of its Monday high, now showing Obama leading by six (50-44).

TRACKING POLLS
Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 49%, McCain 41%
Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%

NATIONAL/QUASI-TRACKING POLLS
GWU/Battleground: Obama 50%, McCain 44%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 45%, McCain 42%

PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLING

This was, to put it mildly, a pretty boring day on the state polling front. Everything was reasonably close to what we have seen over the past few weeks. Of course, if you have 300+ electoral votes banked, boring is good.

If you are a McCain fan (and if you are, what the hell are you doing here??!!??), you like Rasmussen's result in Ohio (although Rasmussen has been awfully favorable to McCain in Ohio). If you are an Obama backer, you love North Dakota (although that is a partisan poll, taken for a local union). Also, worth noting, Christopher Newport University polls Virginia again. Last time, they got lambasted for showing McCain up nine, while showing virtually nonexistent black and youth voter turnout. This time around? Obama by six.

Using our tracker of momentum (this day's polls vs. the trend composite over at Pollster.com), we see ten states with new polling today. Obama "beats the spread" on seven of them, while McCain does so on just three of them. Although, it must be said that two of them are potential battleground states (OH,VA)

CONNECTICUT--Rasmussen: Obama 56%, McCain 39% (Obama)
GEORGIA--Research 2000: McCain 49%, Obama 43% (Obama)
KANSAS--P.O.S. (R): McCain 51%, Obama 38% (Obama)
MASSACHUSETTS--SurveyUSA: Obama 59%, McCain 35% (Obama)
NEW YORK--Rasmussen: Obama 57%, McCain 37% (McCain)
NORTH DAKOTA--DFM Research (D): Obama 44%, McCain 41% (Obama)
OHIO--Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 49% (McCain)
OREGON--Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 41% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg: Obama 53%, McCain 37% (Obama)
VIRGINIA--C. Newport University: Obama 49%, McCain 43% (McCain)

NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING

Quite a bit of House polling today, both public polling and internal polling. The developing narrative of a BIG Democratic wave is not contradicted by today's polls, which show some alleged "third-tier" races are much closer than some might have thought. One disappointment--SUSA thinks that Sam Graves is pretty safe in MO-06.

CT-04--SurveyUSA: Jim Himes (D) 48%, Rep. Chris Shays (R) 45%
GA-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 47%, Jim Martin (D) 45%
KY-03--SurveyUSA: Rep. John Yarmuth (D) 57%, Anne Northup (R) 41%
MA-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. John Kerry (D) 59%, Jeff Beatty (R) 29%
MD-06--Garin Hart Yang (D): Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R) 45%, Jennifer Dougherty (D) 39%
MN-06--Grove (D): Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) 42%, El Tinklenberg (D) 38%
MO-06--SurveyUSA: Rep. Sam Graves (R) 51%, Kay Barnes (D) 40%
ND-GOV--DFM Research (D): Gov. John Hoeven (R) 66%, John Mathern (D) 22%
ND-AL--DFM Research (D): Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 55%, Duane Sand (R) 30%
NE-02--Anzalone Liszt (D): Rep. Lee Terry (R) 47%, Jim Esch (D) 46%
OR-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 47%, Jeff Merkley (D) 47%
OR-05--SurveyUSA: Kurt Schrader (D) 51%, Mike Erickson (R) 38%

A word on the debate polls. Worth noting--this was the most one-sided polling we saw on the debates to date.

DEBATE #1--CNN +13 (51-38)
DEBATE #2--CNN +24 (54-30)
DEBATE #3--CNN +27 (58-31)

One has to wonder the effect it will have on the polls, starting as early as tomorrow. I also suspect that Team Obama has one or two potential reinforcements at the ready, such as key endorsements (GOPers? Colin Powell?). Notice that they are also STILL sitting on their September fundraising totals.

Let me be the king of understatements--I still really like our chances.

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 06:05 PM PDT.

Poll

The Holy S&*t Poll For Today (10/16) Is....

17%33 votes
46%88 votes
17%34 votes
8%16 votes
6%12 votes
2%4 votes
1%2 votes

| 189 votes | Vote | Results

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