Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/14-15. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/5-7 results)
Cornyn (R) 50 (48)
Noriega (D) 44 (44)
Adams (L) 2 (n/a)
Those trendlines are deceiving. They are from May, but Noriega's campaign headed south soon afterward. Rasmussen has been one of the few pollsters surveying this race. On August 21, they had the race at 52-38. Then in late September, it had closed to 50-43. This poll confirms that the race remains close, within single digits. Cornyn is at 50 percent, so he's where he needs to be. It's up to Noriega to knock Cornyn off that perch.
Noriega has gotten a great deal of recent help from Hillary and Bill Clinton, both of which are raising money and campaigning for Rick. If Hillary could help spur the kind of turnout in southern Texas that she got in the primary, Noriega would have a serious chance. Hopefully she can come through.
And with a tightening race, the DSCC is stuck with a tough decision -- do they play? Texas is an expensive state, with something like 18 media markets, costing millions. Yet on the flip side, they have a real opportunity in a ridiculously good environment to take out Cornyn before he's too entrenched in that seat.
Of course, when it comes to dilemmas, that's the good kind to have, but it's one that must be resolved soon. We're down to two and half weeks before Election Day.
On the web:
Noriega for Senate
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TEXAS POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Texas Poll was conducted from October 14 through October 15, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (51%)
Democrats 198 (33%)
Republicans 241 (40%)
Independents/Other 161 (27%)
White 390 (65%)
Black 78 (13%)
Hispanic 114 (19%)
Other 18 (3%)
18-29 108 (18%)
30-44 198 (33%)
45-59 192 (32%)
60+ 102 (17%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Cornyn? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 19% 33% 23% 15% 10%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 52% 38% 10%
MEN 56% 35% 9%
WOMEN 48% 41% 11%
DEMOCRATS 25% 65% 10%
REPUBLICANS 75% 17% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 36% 13%
18-29 48% 41% 11%
30-44 56% 35% 9%
45-59 55% 37% 8%
60+ 49% 40% 11%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Noriega? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 16% 31% 22% 15% 16%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 47% 37% 16%
MEN 45% 41% 14%
WOMEN 49% 33% 18%
DEMOCRATS 78% 18% 4%
REPUBLICANS 24% 53% 23%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 36% 20%
18-29 50% 34% 16%
30-44 44% 41% 15%
45-59 46% 37% 17%
60+ 48% 36% 16%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Rick Noriega the Democrat John Cornyn the Republican or Yvonne Adams the Libertarian?
CORNYN NORIEGA ADAMS UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 44% 2% 4%
MEN 53% 43% 2% 2%
WOMEN 47% 45% 2% 6%
DEMOCRATS 8% 85% 1% 6%
REPUBLICANS 87% 9% 1% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 46% 5% 2%
WHITE 65% 31% 3% 1%
BLACK 7% 78% - 15%
HISPANIC 31% 63% - 6%
OTHER 36% 61% - 3%
18-29 46% 47% 2% 5%
30-44 54% 41% 3% 2%
45-59 51% 43% 2% 4%
60+ 49% 45% 1% 5%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 52% 40% 4% 4%
MEN 56% 36% 5% 3%
WOMEN 48% 44% 3% 5%
DEMOCRATS 14% 80% 1% 5%
REPUBLICANS 84% 7% 5% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 41% 6% 2%
WHITE 68% 25% 6% 1%
BLACK 4% 89% - 7%
HISPANIC 33% 57% - 10%
OTHER 35% 55% - 10%
18-29 49% 44% 4% 3%
30-44 56% 35% 5% 4%
45-59 53% 39% 4% 4%
60+ 51% 41% 3% 5%