Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/14-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/15-17 results.)
Senate
Stevens (R) 46 (44)
Begich (D) 48 (50)
House
Young (R) 44 (39)
Berkowitz (D) 50 (53)
We got spoiled by months of big leads in both these races. They are now tightening, though the edge remains ours. Last poll was conducted at the end of the GOP primary, so his Republican support was anemic (75-19). The number is now 79-14. That and a slight improvement with independents is helping him gain ground in this heavily Republican state. Sen. Tubes has gained ground on the strength of a 6-point swing among Republicans, and a 5-point swing among independents.
Full crosstabs below the fold, including the first Palin Fav/Unfav numbers we've ever asked. She's at 63-34, which is great, except that other polling used to have her in the 80-90 percent range. She's coming down to earth.
On the web:
Ethan Berkowitz for Congress
Mark Begich for Senate
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page
ALASKA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from October 14 through October
16, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 291 (49%)
Women 309 (51%)
Democrats 132 (22%)
Republicans 186 (31%)
Independents/Other 282 (47%)
18-29 108 (18%)
30-44 210 (35%)
45-59 189 (32%)
60+ 93 (15%)
Anchorage 287 (48%)
Central/Other 94 (16%)
Fairbanks/Juneau 219 (36%)
U.S CONGRESS:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 21% 33% 20% 20% 6%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 54% 40% 6%
MEN 51% 45% 4%
WOMEN 57% 35% 8%
DEMOCRATS 78% 16% 6%
REPUBLICANS 29% 61% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 38% 4%
18-29 64% 31% 5%
30-44 51% 44% 5%
45-59 55% 39% 6%
60+ 46% 46% 8%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 32% 35% 21% 1%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 43% 56% 1%
MEN 50% 49% 1%
WOMEN 36% 63% 1%
DEMOCRATS 11% 87% 2%
REPUBLICANS 71% 28% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 59% 1%
18-29 34% 65% 1%
30-44 47% 52% 1%
45-59 42% 56% 2%
60+ 49% 50% 1%
QUESTION: If the 2008 election for Congress were held today for whom would you votefor if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat and Don Young
the Republican?
BERKOWITZ YOUNG UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 44% 6%
MEN 46% 50% 4%
WOMEN 54% 38% 8%
DEMOCRATS 85% 8% 7%
REPUBLICANS 14% 79% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 38% 4%
18-29 53% 39% 8%
30-44 49% 46% 5%
45-59 51% 43% 6%
60+ 47% 48% 5%
ANCHORAGE 51% 44% 5%
CENTRAL/OTHER 41% 49% 10%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 52% 42% 6%
U.S. SENATE:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 20% 33% 22% 15% 10%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 53% 37% 10%
MEN 50% 41% 9%
WOMEN 56% 33% 11%
DEMOCRATS 79% 13% 8%
REPUBLICANS 28% 66% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 29% 14%
18-29 59% 33% 8%
30-44 49% 40% 11%
45-59 56% 34% 10%
60+ 48% 42% 10%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 31% 31% 20% 5%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 44% 51% 5%
MEN 48% 49% 3%
WOMEN 40% 53% 7%
DEMOCRATS 15% 81% 4%
REPUBLICANS 71% 26% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 53% 6%
18-29 37% 58% 5%
30-44 50% 46% 4%
45-59 38% 56% 6%
60+ 51% 44% 5%
QUESTION: If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich the Democrat and Ted Stevens
the Republican?
BEGICH STEVENS UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 46% 6%
MEN 44% 51% 5%
WOMEN 52% 41% 7%
DEMOCRATS 86% 7% 7%
REPUBLICANS 11% 85% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 55% 39% 6%
18-29 55% 38% 7%
30-44 44% 49% 7%
45-59 50% 45% 5%
60+ 44% 51% 5%
ANCHORAGE 50% 44% 6%
CENTRAL/OTHER 40% 54% 6%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 49% 45% 6%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 57% 38% 2% 3%
MEN 61% 34% 3% 2%
WOMEN 53% 42% 1% 4%
DEMOCRATS 13% 84% 1% 2%
REPUBLICANS 88% 7% 1% 4%
OTHER 55% 38% 3% 4%
18-29 49% 48% 1% 2%
30-44 62% 31% 3% 4%
45-59 57% 40% 1% 2%
60+ 60% 33% 2% 5%
ANCHORAGE 57% 37% 2% 4%
CENTRAL/OTHER 60% 34% 1% 5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 56% 41% 2% 1%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 19% 44% 23% 11% 3%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 63% 34% 3%
MEN 66% 32% 2%
WOMEN 60% 36% 4%
DEMOCRATS 30% 68% 2%
REPUBLICANS 92% 6% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 59% 37% 4%
18-29 57% 38% 5%
30-44 68% 30% 2%
45-59 61% 35% 4%
60+ 66% 32% 2%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sarah Palin is doing as Governor?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 60% 35% 5%
MEN 63% 34% 3%
WOMEN 57% 36% 7%
DEMOCRATS 26% 70% 4%
REPUBLICANS 90% 6% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 56% 38% 6%
18-29 54% 41% 5%
30-44 65% 30% 5%
45-59 58% 36% 6%
60+ 63% 33% 4%