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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/14-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/15-17 results.)

Senate

Stevens (R) 46 (44)
Begich (D) 48 (50)

House

Young (R) 44 (39)
Berkowitz (D) 50 (53)

We got spoiled by months of big leads in both these races. They are now tightening, though the edge remains ours. Last poll was conducted at the end of the GOP primary, so his Republican support was anemic (75-19). The number is now 79-14. That and a slight improvement with independents is helping him gain ground in this heavily Republican state. Sen. Tubes has gained ground on the strength of a 6-point swing among Republicans, and a 5-point swing among independents.

Full crosstabs below the fold, including the first Palin Fav/Unfav numbers we've ever asked. She's at 63-34, which is great, except that other polling used to have her in the 80-90 percent range. She's coming down to earth.

On the web:
Ethan Berkowitz for Congress
Mark Begich for Senate
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ALASKA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from October 14 through October
16, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  291 (49%)
Women                309 (51%)

Democrats            132 (22%)
Republicans          186 (31%)
Independents/Other   282 (47%)

18-29                108 (18%)
30-44                210 (35%)
45-59                189 (32%)
60+                   93 (15%)

Anchorage            287 (48%)
Central/Other         94 (16%)
Fairbanks/Juneau     219 (36%)

U.S CONGRESS:


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 21%         33%         20%         20%          6%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 54%         40%          6%

MEN                 51%         45%          4%
WOMEN               57%         35%          8%

DEMOCRATS           78%         16%          6%
REPUBLICANS         29%         61%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        58%         38%          4%

18-29               64%         31%          5%
30-44               51%         44%          5%
45-59               55%         39%          6%
60+                 46%         46%          8%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         32%         35%         21%          1%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 43%         56%          1%

MEN                 50%         49%          1%
WOMEN               36%         63%          1%

DEMOCRATS           11%         87%          2%
REPUBLICANS         71%         28%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         59%          1%

18-29               34%         65%          1%
30-44               47%         52%          1%
45-59               42%         56%          2%
60+                 49%         50%          1%


QUESTION: If the 2008 election for Congress were held today for whom would you votefor if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat and Don Young
the Republican?

                   BERKOWITZ   YOUNG       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 50%         44%          6%

MEN                 46%         50%          4%
WOMEN               54%         38%          8%

DEMOCRATS           85%          8%          7%
REPUBLICANS         14%         79%          7%
INDEPENDENTS        58%         38%          4%

18-29               53%         39%          8%
30-44               49%         46%          5%
45-59               51%         43%          6%
60+                 47%         48%          5%

ANCHORAGE           51%         44%          5%
CENTRAL/OTHER       41%         49%         10%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    52%         42%          6%

U.S. SENATE:


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 20%         33%         22%         15%         10%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 53%         37%         10%

MEN                 50%         41%          9%
WOMEN               56%         33%         11%

DEMOCRATS           79%         13%          8%
REPUBLICANS         28%         66%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         29%         14%

18-29               59%         33%          8%
30-44               49%         40%         11%
45-59               56%         34%         10%
60+                 48%         42%         10%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         31%         31%         20%          5%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 44%         51%          5%

MEN                 48%         49%          3%
WOMEN               40%         53%          7%

DEMOCRATS           15%         81%          4%
REPUBLICANS         71%         26%          3%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         53%          6%

18-29               37%         58%          5%
30-44               50%         46%          4%
45-59               38%         56%          6%
60+                 51%         44%          5%


QUESTION: If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich the Democrat and Ted Stevens
the Republican?

                   BEGICH      STEVENS     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         46%          6%

MEN                 44%         51%          5%
WOMEN               52%         41%          7%

DEMOCRATS           86%          7%          7%
REPUBLICANS         11%         85%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        55%         39%          6%

18-29               55%         38%          7%
30-44               44%         49%          7%
45-59               50%         45%          5%
60+                 44%         51%          5%

ANCHORAGE           50%         44%          6%
CENTRAL/OTHER       40%         54%          6%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    49%         45%          6%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 57%         38%          2%          3%

MEN                 61%         34%          3%          2%
WOMEN               53%         42%          1%          4%

DEMOCRATS           13%         84%          1%          2%
REPUBLICANS         88%          7%          1%          4%
OTHER               55%         38%          3%          4%

18-29               49%         48%          1%          2%
30-44               62%         31%          3%          4%
45-59               57%         40%          1%          2%
60+                 60%         33%          2%          5%

ANCHORAGE           57%         37%          2%          4%
CENTRAL/OTHER       60%         34%          1%          5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    56%         41%          2%          1%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         44%         23%         11%          3%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 63%         34%          3%

MEN                 66%         32%          2%
WOMEN               60%         36%          4%

DEMOCRATS           30%         68%          2%
REPUBLICANS         92%          6%          2%
INDEPENDENTS        59%         37%          4%

18-29               57%         38%          5%
30-44               68%         30%          2%
45-59               61%         35%          4%
60+                 66%         32%          2%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sarah Palin is doing as Governor?

                   APPROVE     DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE        

ALL                 60%         35%          5%

MEN                 63%         34%          3%
WOMEN               57%         36%          7%

DEMOCRATS           26%         70%          4%
REPUBLICANS         90%          6%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        56%         38%          6%

18-29               54%         41%          5%
30-44               65%         30%          5%
45-59               58%         36%          6%
60+                 63%         33%          4%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 04:30 PM PDT.

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