Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/14-15. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/16-17 results)
McCain (R) 45 (53)
Obama (D) 45 (40)
It looks like the nation's economic woes have dragged this state back into a tie, after seemingly out of reach for Obama. This confirms two recent polls showing the race neck-and-neck.
Let's be honest here -- this isn't a state we need to win. Its 3 electoral votes won't make much a difference to Obama's chances of victory. It's mathematically irrelevant.
But politically, it would be HUGE. This is a state Bush won by 28 points in 2004. Obama would expand the Democratic map, earning a national mandate by winning in every region of the country. And it would show Republicans that they aren't safe anywhere, not even in their supposed "strongholds".
Full crosstabs below the fold.
NORTH DAKOTA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 North Dakota Poll was conducted from October 14 through October 15, 2008. A total of 500 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were s/elected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 245 (48%)
Women 255 (52%)
Democrats 155 (31%)
Republicans 195 (39%)
Independents/Other 150 (30%)
18-29 91 (18%)
30-44 138 (28%)
45-59 161 (32%)
60+ 110 (22%)
North 134 interviews
East 204 interviews
South 162 interviews
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 45% 45% 3% 7%
MEN 48% 43% 4% 5%
WOMEN 42% 47% 2% 9%
DEMOCRATS 6% 88% 2% 4%
REPUBLICANS 79% 7% 3% 11%
OTHER 42% 49% 4% 5%
18-29 42% 50% 2% 6%
30-44 47% 43% 3% 7%
45-59 46% 43% 4% 7%
60+ 45% 44% 3% 8%
NORTH 51% 41% 1% 7%
EAST 39% 50% 3% 8%
SOUTH 48% 42% 4% 6%