Hey everyone. Not a large diary but thought I thought this may be good since today is our bi-weekly freak-out day. Yeah we saw the four point drop in today's R2K poll (Thursday numbers, not the three-day average).
Call it what you want: signs of a trend, outlier, whatever. I personally think a four day drop in one day is a sure sign of statistical variation: while I don't doubt that the numbers are tightening, the cross-tabs seem to show a larger amount of McCain supporters than before. Either way, it's not a sign to be concerned as far as I'm...concerned. Numbers go up and down, and we'll see what happens end of the weekend when we'll have a clearer picture. Just remember, some polls have us going down, some going up, but also keep this in mind: Obama's range is always 48-52 and McCain's 42-46, and this has been STABLE for some time.
That said, you may want to hear what Obama has to say. From the AFP, courtesy of TalkingPointsMemo
Barack Obama headed onto Republican turf Friday bidding to seal the deal with voters 18 days from election day while warning Democrats not to forget their ability to "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory."
The Illinois senator was en route to Virginia, which has not voted for a Democratic White House hopeful since 1964 but is now very much in play as Republican John McCain struggles to shore up his own support for November 4.
But while he is flush with cash and poll readings that hint at an election wipeout, Obama issued a clarion call against complacency following a fundraising concert here late Thursday with Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel.
"Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory," he said, only half in jest. "Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up."
He added: "I want everybody running scared. Over the next 18 days, other than your family and your job, I want you to make a decision that there is nothing more important than bringing about this change that we need."
So while I don't care for the freakouts, I suppose you are technically doing what our leader asks of you. Therefore I will compromise: be scared, work hard(-er), but just no flailing your hands like the world is ending. The race is going to get tight and we got 18 days left.
Now to encourage a somewhat lighter mood so that those who are listening to Barack will at least calm down enough to be constructive, here's a fun poll for you.