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A rather strange day of data, the kind that sent those who are predisposed to panic and exultation over every individual data point into a roller-coaster of emotions. Every release that reinforced the positive was followed by one that raised a potential negative. It was that kind of a day.

In all, we get (again) no national polls, just the "big five" tracking polls as well as the pair of quasi tracking polls. Most of the individual race data came in-house via the DKos/Research 2000 series of polls, but we did get numbers from outside, and they were a mixed bag, as well. In all, there were new polls from 26 individual races.

Follow me....

Strangely, it was an "up" day on the big five tracking polls today (albeit fractionally) for the Democrats. Barack Obama's lead went from an average edge of 6.8% on Thursday to an average of 7.0% today.

That said, it was a rather sobering day, given some insights into the one-day samples on two of those polls. Of course, the R2K/DKos tracker gave us the first mini-blow of the day, with a one day sample that showed notable movement to McCain (O+10 on Wednesday down to O+6 on Thursday). That came on the heels of the revelation from Zogby that while his numbers only moved fractionally (remaining, when rounded, at a five point Obama lead), the one-day number for Thursday was a few points closer than previous days (3.8 points).

Yes...yes...high margins of error...statistical noise. Still, the one-two punch that polls looked CLOSER after the debates was a bit of a blow, especially for those of us who thought that the 3rd presidential debate might blow the race open, at the last.

Rasmussen held steady (50-46). Worth noting, Nate Silver over at 538 thinks that Obama actually had a very good single night of polling last night, based on the internals on the debate poll (he estimates it at 9-10 points).

Then, in a bit of a relief, we got SOME positive movement in Obama's direction, courtesy of Diageo/Hotline. In their tracker, Obama went from an eight-point edge out to ten points (50-40). Gallup gained a point among registered voters, but held steady with the Likely Voter II sample that I have elected to use (51-45).

The quasi-trackers were mixed, with IBD/TIPP giving Obama a two-point bump (up to a 46-41 lead), while GWU/Battleground continued to tighten, now down to four points.

Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 42%
Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%
Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%

IBD/TIPP: Obama 46%, McCain 41%
GWU/Battleground: Obama 49%, McCain 45%

On balance, the day was a good one for Senator Obama. Rasmussen gives him his biggest leads to date in a few critical red states (Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada). And that California poll looks good, even if the actual winner out here is really not in doubt.

There is some cause for a touch of trepidation here, as well. Two polls that included yesterday in their sample gave disappointing results: SUSA's foray into Florida (the first lead ANYONE has had for McCain in Florida in three weeks) and Muhlenberg's tracker in Pennsylvania (yes, it is still 14 points. But that does represent a two-point swing).

Now, worth noting: both Colorado and Nevada's Ras polling was based on yesterday's polling, as well.

All in all, there are new numbers in twelve states. Momentum (this poll, compared to the trend estimate) is in Obama's corner in nine states, while McCain beats the spread in three of them.

CALIFORNIA--SurveyUSA: Obama 59%, McCain 35%, Others 3% (Obama)
COLORADO--Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 45% (Obama)
FLORIDA #1--Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 45% (McCain)
FLORIDA #2--SurveyUSA: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, Others 3%
MISSISSIPPI--Research 2000: McCain 50%, Obama 40%, Others 3% (McCain)
MISSOURI--Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (Obama)
NEVADA #1--Magellan Research: Obama 47%, McCain 44% (Obama)
NEVADA #2--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
NORTH DAKOTA--Research 2000: Obama 45%, McCain 45%, Others 3% (Obama)
OREGON--Research 2000: Obama 53%, McCain 38%, Others 4% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg: Obama 53%, McCain 39%, Others 2% (McCain)
TENNESSEE--Ayers McHenry (R): McCain 54%, Obama 39% (Obama)
TEXAS--Research 2000: McCain 52%, Obama 40%, Others 4% (Obama)
WYOMING--Research 2000: McCain 58%, Obama 35%, Others 4% (Obama)

Florida gives us both of the "double-take" polls today. The GOP releases an internal out of FL-16, showing that Tim Mahoney turned a 25-30 point lead into a 25-30 point deficit in a week. Gosh, I wonder what HE did.

Over in FL-24, however, a pretty respected Dem pollster (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner) shows Democrat Suzanne Kosmas thrashing GOP incumbent Tom Feeney. Now, since we can assume that Feeney didn't ALSO pay off a mistress this week, we have to assume that something else is at play.

In other downballot news, a public poll gives Jerry McNerney a double-digit edge in the California 11th, while a pair of Rasmussen polls give Democrats Jay Nixon (MO-GOV) and Mark Udall (CO-SEN) pretty comfortable leads.

CA-11--SurveyUSA: Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) 52%, Dean Andal (R) 41%
CO-SEN--Rasmussen: Mark Udall (D) 51%, Bob Schaffer (R) 44%
FL-16--Tarrance (R): Tom Rooney (R) 55%, Rep. Tim Mahoney (D) 29%
FL-24--GQR (D): Suzanne Kosmas (D) 58%, Rep. Tom Feeney (R) 35%
MO-GOV--Rasmussen: Jay Nixon (D) 57%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 38%
MS-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 47%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 46%
OR-SEN--Research 2000: Jeff Merkley (D) 47%, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 41%, Others 6%
TX-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. John Cornyn (R) 50%, Rick Noriega (D) 44%
WI-08--P.O.S. (R): Rep. Steve Kagen (D) 46%, John Gard (R) 44%
WY-SEN "A"--Research 2000: Sen. John Barrasso (R) 57%, Nick Carter (D) 36%
WY-SEN "B"--Research 2000: Sen. Michael Enzi (R) 61%, Chris Rothfuss (D) 34%
WY-AL--Research 2000: Gary Trauner (D) 44%, Cynthia Lummis (R) 43%

I know Kos is getting Alaska released later today, but tonight is a football night for me, so I will not be able to update. I will add those races to tomorrow's edition of FTP.

Have a good weekend, all.....

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:15 PM PDT.


The Holy S&*t Poll For Today (10/17) Is....

8%8 votes
30%30 votes
22%22 votes
3%3 votes
5%5 votes
11%11 votes
5%5 votes
14%14 votes
1%1 votes

| 99 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips, Comments, Recs, Love, Hate.... (16+ / 0-)

    Interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

    Now, I am well aware that this diary, because it spots some polls as potentially disappointing, will unleash some discord among the relentlessly positive.

    The purpose of this diary is not cheerleading. It is to bring numbers and information. Not all of it today is wonderful news. To assume otherwise is to be like those McCain apologists in the press who try to trumpet every news event as "good news for McCain!!!".

    "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
    Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
    Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

    by Steve Singiser on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:18:28 PM PDT

  •  Florida thoughts (4+ / 0-)

    Everyone knew that Mahoney was cooked when the sex scandal broke. And while we all knew Feeney was in trouble, I am stunned by the idea that Kosmas could win by a veritable landslide. Confirms Cillizza's take on FL-24 earlier today ("Consider Feeney another inevitable Abramoff casualty"). I'll trade FL-16 for FL-24, especially considering our good shots in FL-21, FL-25, and FL-08.

    The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:20:32 PM PDT

  •  Aside from the FL tossup (4+ / 0-)

    It's another great day for Obama.  I love that McCain is only at 50 in Mississippi.

  •  I don't think it's the debate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    that is causing the daily trackers to tighten.  I think it's the ACORN stories, and maybe a little of the Joe plumber added in.  I think that's offsetting whatever gains there was from the debate.

    Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

    by duha on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:23:47 PM PDT

    •  I think you're right. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser, duha

      Obama should have turned the ACORN thing back at McCain about voter suppression.  At least make the issue a wash in people's minds.  And it's getting some traction.  

      I read earlier that Obama's fighting back on voter suppression with some letter to Mukasey; but I couldn't find a link to it.  Does anyone know anything more about this?  

      I think this is critically important in the final weeks.  

  •  Great job (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueyedace2, Steve Singiser, Ivey476

    Let's hope that in the next couple of days what happened after the first day after the debate when people have time to digest that debate, the numbers will move in our direction, but you're right I was pretty depressed this morning.  I also think "Joe the Plumber" became the focus of the news cycle and to that degree McCain may have been able to muffle the debate a little, but we'll see.  I think we will know more on Monday.

  •  Looking good overall (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueyedace2, Steve Singiser

    We're in such better position than I ever would have thought possible a few months ago. I expect to see the usual tightening, perhaps increased by McCain's fearmongering.  But we really don't know how much all of the early voting will protect against last-minute smear campaigns.
    It's an interesting time to be alive.

  •  I'm most happy with the RR results in CO and NV. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    If you think about it, widening leads of 7 and 5 in those two States go against RR's national tracker of Obama +4.

    FL is a buzzkill cuz noone has polled McCain ahead there in weeks.  One would have to assume things are tightening in FL.

    One caveat on the MO +6 poll from Ras:

    The polling ended on the 13th.

    It's the fascism, stupid!

    by lastman on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:37:00 PM PDT

  •  Florida poll has some big question marks. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CA Pol Junkie, Steve Singiser

    Now, I love SurveyUSA as much as the next Kossack.  But after looking at their crosstabs in FL, I was shaking my head.

    African-Americans: Just 10% of the sample size, and 22% of it goes to John McCain.  Sorry, SUSA, but I call bullshit.  If McCain gets more than 5% of the AA vote on Nov. 4, I will be stunned.

    (The weirdness isn't confined to Florida.  Their California poll gives 18% of the AA vote to McCain as well.  Again, highly questionable.)

    Moreover, SUSA samples 44% R, 40% D in a state that leans Democratic in overall registration (I think).  That too will skew the numbers.

    Yet another flaw in the "likely voter" model... you end up screening out voters who will actually show up, and present a misleading result.

    •  Almost all of the SUSA polls (0+ / 0-)

      seem to undercut the black vote for Obama. Could it be that white republicans are clicking they are black in the SUSA polls; as they are done by having the person polled pressing numbers on their telephone, rather than being interviwed by a live person?

      "If BS were currency, Palin would be able to bail out Wall Street by herself." Kathleen Parker

      by pollbuster on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:53:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Might be their "likely voter" screen... (0+ / 0-)

        I suspect (again, wild guess) that they're screening out younger African-American voters without much of a voting history, and leaving in older, more socially conservative AA voters who might lean more toward McCain.

        That's about the only thing I can guess would cause SUSA to give such a large share of the AA vote to McCain, when every shred of anecdotal evidence points toward an African-American voter tsunami boosting Obama's numbers.

        •  Why do you think that older (0+ / 0-)

          blacks are socially conservative? Blacks have voted democrat at around 90% even before Obama. The big difference with Obama is that now it's up to about 94%, and they have been and will be turning out in record shattering numbers.

          "If BS were currency, Palin would be able to bail out Wall Street by herself." Kathleen Parker

          by pollbuster on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 05:10:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Survey USA in the South (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      That Anonymous Guy

      Survey USA has a systematic problem polling African-Americans.  They did a horrible job in the South in the primaries, and they still have the problem.  

      At least they give us the demographic breakdowns, though.  Then we can shift the African-American demographic to 13% turnout to match 2004 (a conservative assumption) and to 95% Obama.  That nets Obama about 6 points and puts the poll in line with all the other Florida polling.

      You have the power to change America. Yes. We. Can.

      by CA Pol Junkie on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 04:13:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  nate from 538 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollbuster, jessica69

    said he studied the cross tabs  from yesterday ras and believe obama should start polling better over the weekend........

    Sarah Palin think the Flintstones were a documentary....

    by bosshogg on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:49:03 PM PDT

  •  At this point I'll take an Obama (0+ / 0-)

    victory any way I can.  I'd like for him to seal the deal in CO, NM, NV.  Then OH, MO, FL, VA, and NC are all icing on the cake.

    Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

    by duha on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 04:08:36 PM PDT

  •  throw out the SUSA FLA poll. Did you all see (0+ / 0-)

    the party id breakdown for that poll?  44% R 40% D and 16% Indies.  Get real!  Reps share of the registered electorate in FLA has DECLINED through the course of the past year, yet SUSA says they will significantly outperform their share of the electorate (by over 7%).  Meanwhile Dems share of the registered electorate has INCREASED through the course of the past year in FLA, yet SUSA says Dems will underperform (again by a significant margin over 3%).  I did a diary in August about the voter registration numbers in FLA and compared the trends to those in previous elections.  To say that Reps will overperform but Dems will underperform is malarkey.  SUSA's poll is CRAP and I say that with supreme confidence.

  •  there is a GOOD reason nat'l polls tighten.. (0+ / 0-)

    Obama is way ahead in CA, NY, etc, magoo is ahead in TX.  As magoo goes from 25+ pts down in the solid blue states w/ lots of voters to 18-20, the national polls seem to tighten.  TX is the reverse--magoo by 10 to magoo by 15.

    But where actual time/money is being spent, Obama is gaining.

    work hard, pray, don't worry. be healed/the broken thing must come apart/then be rejoined.

    by Zacapoet on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 06:03:51 PM PDT

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