Over the past couple of weeks, I've been thinking some about the Obama camp's end-game strategy. If the primary taught us anything, it's that they already have the final few weeks planned out: you can bet that endorsements, ad buys, and other media-cycle-winning actions are on the docket. If this wasn't already apparent, today's half-announcement of Powell's coming endorsement should confirm this for us.
So what can we expect over the next couple of weeks from the Obama camp? What big moves are they likely to make? And when are they likely to occur? After the jump, I give some possible answers to these questions.
First: the calendar.
Oct -
Sun. 12
Mon. 13
Tues. 14
Wed. 15 Debate
Thurs.16
Fri. 17
Sat. 18
Sun. 19 Powell Endorsement
Mon. 20
Tues. 21
Wed. 22
Thurs.23
Fri. 24
Sat. 25
Sun. 26
Mon. 27
Tues. 28
Wed. 29 Major Ad Buy
Thurs.30
Fri. 31
Sat. 1
Sun. 2
Mon. 3
Tues. 4 E-day
Ok. So this is what we know. Here are my predictions:
- The McCain campaign is planning a huge burst of negative advertising this coming week, which will continue on through the election, but will be tempered in the final week and a half with positive, pro-McCain spots. Look for the anti-Obama attack ads to be funded by the RNC.
- The Obama campaign, preparing for this likely onslaught of smear, has lined up a series of events meant to reassure voters about Obama's fitness for the job (and to neutralize the race-based and terrorism-related smears). Powell's (presumed) endorsement this weekend is the first of these events. Look for another next Wednesday or Thursday, and possibly other such events on each of the following Sundays or Mondays. The ad on the 29th is also clearly designed to reassure voters about an Obama presidency.
Now: what might these mystery events be?
Most likely, at this point, are endorsements from prominent (ex-)Republican dudes. I'm guessing, for instance, that Chuck Hegel is in the lineup somewhere. He has already lent his support to Obama's campaign (when he traveled to Iraq with Obama), his wife has endorsed Obama, and there is little doubt that his endorsement would cause a media splash (if only for a day or so). I could see him coming out for Obama next week.
Also, watch for Obama to make dramatic and news-worthy speeches during the week of the 26th. He is going to want as many of these speeches to get play as possible, so he is likely to hold them in noteworthy locations, have noteworthy co-speakers (incl. the Clintons, I'd imagine), and/or hold them at sundown. Look for huge rallies in large public parks, with dramatic backgrounds (like in the waning days of various primary races -- think Texas). In the past, his poll numbers have briefly spiked (upward) when he has given dramatic and well-publicized speeches. The ephemerality of these spikes has been frustrating for many of us, but in this case, an ephemeral jump in the polls is actually meaningful, as it could have residual effects on E-day, and would certainly motivate his corps of volunteers.
Finally, watch for the numbers at his rallies to go through the roof in the coming weeks. Everyone wants to be a part of history.
Let's make this happen -- and push Obama across the finish line!