OK folks, it's now game-time. Come Tuesday, we are two weeks away from election day, and, to be honest, the national polls are tightening. It may or may not be coincidence, but Barack Obama and his campaign have all come out today, publicly and privately, saying they worry about complacency, and foregone conclusions causing many not to care. So, this is a post to get people motivated for the final push: we need it, we need to stay focused, and we need to get people to GET OUT AND VOTE, either now in early voting, or on Tuesday, November 4th. As Barack Obama says, it's time to start "running scared."
Yeah, this may be a prevelant theme in the diaries today, but I don't think people are quite understanding how urgent this is. I'm repeating this plea here, with visuals, and quotes, to make sure people understand that this is serious, and we have it within our power to lose this thing, and if we keep going the way we are, we just may.
(This is a cross post from my blog The Daily Shocker. It's too important to not get out to as many people as possible.)
First, take a look at pollster.com's trendlines, with a little projection-modification by me:
Nervous yet? You should be.
Remember "the fundamentals of our economy are strong?" Remember the suspension of the campaign? The Couric / Palin interview? The debates? The hate rallies? What did that do? 8% lead. That's it. McCain never dropped below 40% average. Obama never broke 55% average. After all the damage, hypocrisy, lying, race baiting, and fear mongering, this is still, right now, a 6.5% race. Think McCain can't make people forget the past month?
The McCain campaign is well aware of their favorables being where they are, and there is a lot they can do to repair them. How about getting Palin some free exposure on Saturday Night Live? It's happening this weekend. Maybe Johnny-boy can show contrition on Letterman; it happened last night. How about McCain doing his grandfather routine, saying he's not George Bush, he's a likable guy, and Palin is completely misunderstood? It's happening right now. Still think we should get complacent?
Barack Obama doesn't. This is from Talking Points Memo. It's about private conversations top men in the Obama campaign had privately with fundraisers and surrogates. What are they talking about? Complacency:
Obama and his aides have publicly warned against complacency, but in general terms, and such gestures have been widely viewed as pep-talks. These private discussions, though, suggest that the worry is genuine, and that it has taken the specific form of worry about money and get-out-the-vote efforts.
"The calls each had the same theme, which struck me," the person who was on both calls says. "They were worried about Democrats being so confident of victory -- it's a recurring theme." The Obama campaign declined to comment on the calls.
Think this is more poker-face bullshit? It's not. This is for real. We are counting on the votes of people who may have been 10 years old when Bush stole the 2000 election. When I was 10 years old, I worried about who stole my baseball cards, not my election. Many people have not been through the rage and anguish we've been through in the past two elections. They don't have the moral imperative inside them to vote. They never had to feel what losing an illegitimate election feels like. We need to make sure they don't feel that this time.
This isn't a joke. I'm not being glib here. I'm deadly fucking serious. We cannot afford to think this is in the bag, and we need to convince people who are new to this; people who never bothered to vote before, that they need to vote this time. They need to. There's no other way we are going to win this. Say what you want about the polls showing Obama up in Florida, and Missouri, and Virginia. Republicans have had eight years to create a voter suppression apparatus. You think the U.S. Attorney scandal wasn't for this very cause? The Republican party lost it's way because it didn't think it could be held accountable to the voters anymore. They got their 50%+1 system in place. It's going to take a lot more than 4% in the polls to beat that:
"With this voter fraud [investigation], we're seeing an unholy alliance of law enforcement and the ugliest form of partisan politics," Bob Bauer, an elections lawyer with the Obama camp, said on a conference call with reporters just now. Bauer compared the decision to launch the investigation with the US attorneys scandal, in which several US attorneys were fired for their unwillingess to pursue politically charged cases, including voter fraud, with sufficient aggression to satisfy the Bush administration.
Bauer released a letter sent to Attorney General Michael Mukasey calling on him to have the issue taken on by Nora Dannehy, the prosecutor he appointed to investigate the US attorney firings.
Bauer went on to accuse John McCain of "trying to create a much greater doubt about the electoral process altogether," by alleging that ACORN voter fraud could threaten the fabric of our democracy, as McCain claimed in the debate Wednesday night.
Our only weapon is turnout. The exit polls had Kerry up. Zogby predicted a Kerry win mid day in 2004. The polls were wrong. More people voted for Bush. That's the bottom line. The polls had Kerry winning, and the votes showed Bush won. No more letting the polls decide this.
The Republican A-Game is stealing elections. They're brilliant at it. These are the tactics we just know about, thanks to Josh Marshall. Do you really think we've uncovered and nullified all the tactics they'll use? Do you really think this election is going to be 100% fair?
The only way we are going to win this thing is if we convert all our new registrations into new votes, and old registrations into new votes. Posting bullshit about Palin wearing blue shoes in a red state isn't going to do shit to get the vote out.
Barack Obama is not trying to sound humble when he says this:
"Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory," he said, only half in jest. "Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up."
He added: "I want everybody running scared. Over the next 18 days, other than your family and your job, I want you to make a decision that there is nothing more important than bringing about this change that we need."
Let me translate that for you:
You got that? "There is nothing more important than bringing about this change that we need." You wanted a new iPod? Forget it, help Obama win. Donate money. Maybe you wanted to go out drinking this weekend? Forget it, help Obama win. Donate money. Need a new winter coat? Well, go get a winter coat, use it to canvass, and help Obama win. For the next two-and-a-half weeks, the thinking needs to be: Help. Obama. Win.
One of our huge strengths right now is we are drowning McCain in television ads. We are playing offense in Florida. Fun fact about Florida, it has about ten media markets. For a state that size, that's a large number:
That means you have to buy air-time in 10 different markets. There's no bleed from other states. That means we need money. Florida is an expensive state to compete in, and for us to win this thing, we need to be consistent there until the day of the election. If we give McCain any breathing room on air-time, we fail. We have no excuse for that. Donating money gets more ads up, more mailers out, more resources to win this thing. Kos says, we need to crush their spirits, right? Throw them an anvil? Well it's not enough to say "hey, they're gonna lose big!" We need to crush them financially, and physically. Support Obama with your pocketbook, and then win this thing with your feet. Canvass, volunteer, get people excited to vote again. We cannot let complacency kill us. Palin has the Republican base ready to kill on sight. They will be out on Election Day. Do not assume that this is a sure-thing. It is not. Now is the time to forget everything else, and do what has to be done.
You saw what Obama and his top advisors said. They aren't messing around with this. This isn't posturing. They sense something. They sense a relaxing of enthusiasm. Ohio's had early voting for weeks now. They thought they could get 100,000. They got 10,000. If that doesn't scare the shit out of you, I don't know what will.
Of course, call to action time. What can we do? Here's what you can do:
Donate Money. Even $10. If that's all you can do, then do it.
Volunteer. Even if it's just calling people on the phone. Do it. Every single vote, in every single state, is another anvil to throw at the Republicans.
Stomp the ground. Get out and knock on doors. This isn't a joke. You want to help win this thing? Make it happen yourself.
Two more weeks, that's all we got. This is so much more important than anything else going on right now, act accordingly. Talk to all your friends, make sure they are voting. Get them to donate! Even $10! That's all it takes. Tell them how good they'll feel afterwards. Tell them BarackObama.com sells the kind of warm fuzzy feeling you can't buy anywhere else. If they give money to Barack Obama, they'll be sure to get Change Back.
Do not get complacent. Not now.