I've rec'd many of David's diaries as a consistant contributor to his early rise on Daily Kos, before he became an editor on Open Left. Below the fold, I have to take exception to some of his claims in his recent diary.
His diary on Oregon politics is titled: "COLUMN: Signs of a Political Earthquake in Oregon":
Put into movie terms, as the outrage of Gung Ho's factory workers became the seething anger of Office Space's cubicle drones, politics began realigning along class lines in places like the Northwest - with the "us" being most workers and the "them" being the very wealthy.
Basics on income distribution in Oregon. Oregon's population of the "very" wealthy is not especially large. Nor is it "us against them" rich vs. poor in politics.
Having lived throughout the Portland and southern Oregon areas, I can state that the richest part of Portland-its west hills--are very blue. Yes, there were some supporters of, say, Jim Francesconi (I know his largest contributor) up there, and Gordon Smith, but Republicanism has not exactly been hip even among the "elite". In 2004, the Kerry support was aboslutely lopsided just by a simple demonstration of walking through a neighborhood, be it Council Crest or West Slope.
It is true that Lake Oswego to the south is more Republican, (not that that says much) but this are is considered more "new money" with semi-large custom housing, (California's upper middle might find it modest) and many of the residents really used to be the upper eschelon of the upper-middle.
The real Republicans are out in Beaverton and to the west and south from there... the Tigard-Murray area, (upper-middle) cities like Newberg and McMinnville which have blossomed from ultra-conservative semi-rural to generally conservative exurb sprawl. Also Salem's suburbs. For those making above middle class income, this area is predominantly upper-middle, Hummers used to be big, SUVs yadda yadda, as the old money prefer to live in the (considerably) modest-sized homes and new condos in the city limits. Without this exurb population which demonizes liberals like Peter de Fazio and Barack Obama, you would have very little in the Valley's political drama.
There are wealthy Republicans in Central-Oregon Bend-Redmond, for sure, but they are far outflanked by the humble Oregonians of the east, who've always voted rightwing. There are not many wealthy people in Eastern Oregon, period. We're talking Malheur County, the Wallowas region, et cet.
"The financial crisis and the subsequent decimation of everyone's 401(k) plans, of course, has only accelerated this convergence - and now the wedge politics of Smith is being aggressively countered with the unabashed populism of Merkley. And polls show it is working."
This might be the case in middle-class Medford, which was always a Republican stronghold. (Medford, btw, is staggeringly populated by those born in California. The city's population growth is astounding for Oregon. And the real estate speculation was around the fifth greatest for the nation.) But Medford is again, more upper-middle class than a truly wealthy area. Ir more resembles California cities like Stockton or Redding than Orange County.
But much of the weakening is the fact that Smith's stronger areas: Klamath County, Douglas County, Josephine County, have a lot of
a) hard-right retirees who are hurting
and b) the economy in Southern Oregon is terrible. Klamath County goes huge for Republicans every election, but in fact the largest employer out there is the Klamath Tribes... there just aren't that many good paying jobs, and with the water crisis only worsening, Smith's 2002 effort to stick the finger to native peoples and "save the farmers" hasn't amounted to much.
You're talking, overall, about a state that's largely rural, and despite the sparseness of the rural areas, there's so darn many of them that it was giving the real base to Smith. The idea that there's this large pool of super-wealthy Oregonians is mistaken and misleading. Save mixed-areas like Bend, the offensive battleground is the suburbs and the middle-class people who've seen their 401ks slaughtered. And the base is the rural poor, not the "super wealthy".
"As just one example, a Democratic U.S. Senate that included Merkley as one of its stars would have a much more difficult time rubber stamping the corporate-written trade policies. And because Merkley would have just won in Oregon's "Silicon Forest," Democrats would suddenly face very real counter-pressure to ignore their high-tech industry donors demanding more unfair trade pacts."
It's also worth pointing out Oregon's Silicon Forest is not as large compared to Washington and California's computer industry, but the article would suggest equivalency.
You might never be able to persuade the Oregon GOP's rich donor friends, but the vast majority of Republican areas are hurting and that's a wedge issue. You can talk about money with them. There simply are no where near enough super wealthy people in Oregon to stop liberals if we do things right. The diary took a cookie-cutter approach (mixing elements of California, Washington and Colorado's political culture) and blending them to make Oregon without considering it on its own terms.