Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/14-15. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/8-10 likely voters.)
President
McCain (R) 44 (55)
Obama (D) 46 (38)
Senate
Dole (R) 45 (48)
Hagan (D) 49 (42)
Governor (see update)
Perdue (D) 48 (42)
McCrory (R) 43 (47)
The last time we visited North Carolina, Republicans were enjoying their convention bounce. That has obviously faded for two out of the three big races this year, as Obama and Hagan enjoy narrow leads. Hagan, looks best of all, just flirting with breaking 50 percent while Dole falls well short. I'm going to enjoy seeing Liddy go down.
The Democratic-held open seat governor's race, on the other hand, continues to look poor. All other polling in this race looks tighter, so this is hopefully a bit of an outlier, rather than trend. R2K has consistently given Perdue some of her worst numbers, so let's hope that's the case.
On the web:
Kay Hagan for Senate
Bev Perdue for Governor
Update: The crosstabs in the governor's race are screwed up. So either Perdue and McCrory's names were reversed (and she leads), or the data is mismatched. I'm checking in with R2K to try and figure out what the actual results are. I suspect it's the former.
We may have all good news in this poll after all.
Update II: Good news! Perdue is up five. R2K accidentally flipped the names in the crosstabs.
NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from October 14 through October 15, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 283 (48%)
Women 317 (52%)
Democrats 264 (44%)
Republicans 210 (35%)
Independents/Other 126 (21%)
18-29 108 (18%)
30-44 204 (34%)
45-59 192 (32%)
60+ 96 (16%)
White 414 (69%)
Black 144 (24%)
Other 42 (7%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
AL 19% 36% 24% 11% 10%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 55% 35% 10%
MEN 52% 39% 9%
WOMEN 58% 31% 11%
DEMOCRATS 76% 20% 4%
REPUBLICANS 27% 54% 19%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 34% 8%
18-29 58% 32% 10%
30-44 52% 39% 9%
45-59 55% 35% 10%
60+ 55% 34% 11%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
AL 16% 34% 26% 17% 7%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 50% 43% 7%
MEN 54% 41% 5%
WOMEN 46% 45% 9%
DEMOCRATS 31% 65% 4%
REPUBLICANS 76% 19% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 48% 38% 14%
18-29 46% 46% 8%
30-44 54% 40% 6%
45-59 52% 43% 5%
60+ 48% 44% 8%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Kay Hagan the Democrat or Elizabeth Dole the Republican?
HAGAN DOLE OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 45% 3% 3%
MEN 46% 49% 4% 1%
WOMEN 52% 41% 2% 5%
DEMOCRATS 82% 12% 2% 4%
REPUBLICANS 10% 85% 3% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 46% 45% 4% 5%
WHITE 32% 63% 4% 1%
BLACK 88% 6% - 6%
OTHER 79% 7% - 14%
18-29 53% 41% 3% 3%
30-44 46% 48% 4% 2%
45-59 48% 46% 3% 3%
60+ 50% 45% 2% 3%
RALEIGH/DUR 53% 40% 5% 2%
CHARLOTTE 45% 49% 2% 4%
GREENSBORO/WS 43% 51% 2% 4%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today would you vote for Beverly Perdue the Democrat or Pat McCrory the Republican?
PERDUE MCCRORY OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 43% 3% 6%
MEN 45% 47% 4% 4%
WOMEN 51% 39% 2% 8%
DEMOCRATS 80% 10% 3% 7%
REPUBLICANS 10% 84% 2% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 43% 4% 9%
WHITE 31% 60% 4% 5%
BLACK 87% 5% - 8%
OTHER 77% 7% - 16%
18-29 52% 39% 3% 6%
30-44 45% 46% 4% 5%
45-59 47% 44% 3% 6%
60+ 49% 43% 2% 6%
RALEIGH/DUR 52% 39% 5% 4%
CHARLOTTE 44% 47% 2% 7%
GREENSBORO/WS 42% 49% 2% 7%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 44% 3% 7%
MEN 42% 49% 3% 6%
WOMEN 50% 39% 3% 8%
DEMOCRATS 76% 14% 2% 8%
REPUBLICANS 8% 84% 3% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 40% 5% 8%
WHITE 27% 62% 4% 7%
BLACK 91% 3% - 6%
OTHER 80% 7% - 13%
18-29 55% 36% 2% 7%
30-44 42% 49% 4% 5%
45-59 44% 47% 4% 5%
60+ 43% 44% 1% 12%
RALEIGH/DUR 51% 38% 4% 7%
CHARLOTTE 42% 49% 2% 7%
GREENSBORO/WS 41% 51% 2% 6%