It may be a little ahead of time, but since the networks are starting to contemplate how they're going to cover Election Night, I figure it can't hurt to visualize the goal posts. I've been curious exactly how early the election might be called for Obama, assuming it all goes our way.
My answer: no earlier than 9:00 PM EST, most likely before 11:15 EST.
But that's just my guess. See for yourselves. Since I'm a little obsessed this year, I've put together a chart showing all the poll closing times:
Here are all the poll closing times, broken down by likely party. (I did McCain a favor and left Georgia & Montana in the R column and New Hampshire in the swing column.)
† Indicates that some of the polls close one hour later - this is the earliest time that returns will start coming in. The networks won't call the state for another hour. The cumulative totals in the chart only reflect states that have closed completely. A ° indicates a less likely flip.
For McCain to win, he can only lose 8 from the swing column (i.e., ND and/or either NV or NH.) He needs at least 115 from there.
All times EST:
(Times come from The Green Papers.)
MY HOUR-BY-HOUR ANALYSIS
6:00 EST The first polls close in IN and KY. Some of these states' polls don't close until 7:00 - notably in IN, where the NW portion of the state is on Central Standard Time. That portion is in the Chicago media market, so we can expect it to go strongly for Obama.
The suspense could end very early - if the initial IN returns from 6-7 look strong for Obama, chill the champagne because it looks like landslide. If the returns aren't looking great, no cause to fret. The 7:00 IN returns will improve Obama's numbers, and even if we don't pull it out there, it's one of the longer-shot states anyway.
7:00 The rest of IN and KY close, as do VA and a large portion of FL (some of FL doesn't close until 8:00 EST.) VA will probably take some time to be called - the urban centers, which should go heavily Obama, will take longer to report; expect Obama's numbers to get better and better as the returns come in. Again, if VA gets called Blue (or IN does), the night is ours and it's just a waiting game. We've seen FL in action before (more than once), so I wouldn't hold my breath on that call coming quickly...
Georgia also closes. This one has looked more and more like a squeaker, so McCain could be in for some very bad news if Georgia looks to be slipping away.
7:30 Ohio closes. The call probably won't come for a while, but it's another McCain must-win.
8:00 New Hampshire and Missouri close. If McCain's going to nab a Blue State, this is probably the most likely. It's still a long shot, and not worth very much. Missouri looked like one of the longer shots for Obama, but now it's one that would inch him closer to landslide.
Expect an Indiana call to be coming around now, if it hasn't already. If it goes Obama, the game is officially done. If it goes McCain, there are still a lot of ways the Dems can pull it out. It's also probably the last chance to throw any suspense into the evening.
8:30 North Carolina closes. If we're in landslide territory, it will come down on our side.
9:00 Colorado closes. At this point in the evening, Obama should have 176 EVs from non-swing states, once all the 9:00 states are called. Up to this point, there have been 115 votes in the swing column. If at least 94 have been called Obama (Georgia could also be part of that 94), he would be pushed over the top in the 9:00 hour. This would indicate a Rout with a capital "R", with huge margins that allow states to be called quickly.
10:00 Nevada closes, as do Iowa and parts of Oregon. Obama should be up to 183 non-swing votes at this point (McCain can only count on 160, with only Alaska still to be definitely added to his column.) If Obama has gotten 90 additional votes from states in the swing column, he'll have 270 and the big call will be made. This is a little more likely.
On the other hand, if McCain has won or is ahead in all of the swing states, NV would be the final nail in the coffin giving him the victory, even without NH.
11:00 California, Hawaii, Washington, and the rest of Oregon close, giving Obama a guaranteed 260, plus whatever he has from the swing column. Alaska is the only remaining state, most of it closing at 12:00 EST with some of the state coming in an hour later. CA will be called quickly, and if the night is to be Obama's, it will push him over the top (if he's not there already).
The scenario that would keep us biting our nails at this point would be if there are swing states that haven't been called, with McCain having won all the ones that have (i.e., we're still waiting on CO, OH, VA and FL and McCain has won IN, NC, and MO.) Also, McCain swiping a "surprise" state (Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) would throw a wrench into the whole evening and render this prediction completely void.
Essentially, though, McCain is playing a defensive game. If the night is to be his, it will be a late night. The only damper on the evening could come after 11:00 - Obama may win the presidency, but we may also learn that Prop 8 in California has passed, rendering gay marriage unconstitutional there.
There's also the question of Senate races - if someone else wants to figure out when we're likely to learn whether we have a filibuster-proof majority based on the poll closings, please go for it.