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Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading McCain 50-43. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

                 Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Today
Research 2000:  50 (50)    43 (43)    3         LV
Reuters/Zogby:  48 (48)    45 (44)    2.8       LV
Rasmussen:      51 (50)    45 (46)    2         LV
Diageo/Hotline: 48 (49)    41 (42)    3.4       LV
Gallup:         52 (50)    42 (42)    2         RV  See also the LV I and LV II numbers

Yesterday
IBD/TIPP:       47 (46)    40 (41)    3.3       LV  alternate link

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +6 Thurs, +7 Fri and +7 Sat. Today's polling will reflect the debate (all of the sample is post-debate).

With a few more days of data, we can better gauge where we are, though as of now, this looks to be a stable position. Obama has been at 50 or more since 9/29 (see top graph). Obama continues in the 48 to 50 51- 52 range [IBD/TIPP has too many undecideds], McCain in the 40-45 range. There has been little movement in fav/unfav.

Speaking of the debate, Gallup agrees that Obama 'won', although minds are usually not changed much by debates no matter who wins.

Americans who watched Wednesday’s third and final presidential debate say Barack Obama did a better job than John McCain by 56% to 30%. The public viewed Obama as the winner of all three debates.

Despite doing well with the public in every poll, Obama's lead shrunk from +11 to +7 over two days (now stable) in the R2K poll. We've been speculating about the 'why' for a few days, though the tightening isn't seen in all the trackers, so the 'what' isn't clearly established. When we zoom in to Sep-Oct (the graph is the trackers only as of last night), what we get with pollster.com is this:

Gallup notes:

Obama's eight-point lead among registered voters is similar to his margin among this group over the last several days.

Rasmussen notes:

These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-three straight days. McCain has not been up by even a single point in over a month (see trends).

Diageo/Hotline notes:

Obama now leads LVs by 7%; one week ago, in the survey completed 10/10, his lead was 10%. While Obama's margins among Indies and Dems are nearly identical to last week, McCain's advantage among GOPers has jumped 10%.

Of interest is this graph of R2K internals, looking at how each candidate does with his own party, and showing data similar to Hotline.

McCain's improvement appears to be driven by base voters coming home to the GOP. Obama's 87-88 with Democrats has been steady. For comparison purposes (scroll down), Bush got 93% of Republicans and Kerry got 89% of Democrats while splitting independents in 2004, an era where the party ID was equivalent.

In looking at independents over the last week, we see a couple of points of movement.

In 2004, Kerry and Bush split independents 49-48 according to exit polls. Given the larger size of the D base this year, if the candidates do equally well with partisans, splitting the independents should lead to an Obama win. Winning them means a bigger win.

Added: emptywheel asked about Latinos. Obama's numbers have not changed. However, the 10% undecideds are now down to 2, mostly going to McCain. these may be conservative votes coming home.

Since we have a high Latino weighting, this may have played a factor. H/t emptywheel for asking the question.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:18 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  5-day averages (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, CocoaLove, duha, vets74, pico3

    Here are the five day averages for the Kos poll:

    Date_  M%__  O%__  O-M_
    9/12   46.2  46.6   0.4
    9/13   45.8  47.0   1.2
    9/14   45.6  47.2   1.6
    9/15   45.4  47.2   1.8
    9/16   44.8  47.6   2.8
    9/17   43.8  48.4   4.6
    9/18   43.2  48.8   5.6
    9/19   42.6  49.0   6.4
    9/20   42.4  49.2   6.8
    9/21   42.6  49.2   6.6
    9/22   42.8  49.0   6.2
    9/23   43.2  48.6   5.4
    9/24   43.2  48.6   5.4
    9/25   43.2  48.4   5.2
    9/26   43.0  48.8   5.8
    9/27   42.8  49.2   6.4
    9/28   42.2  50.0   7.8
    9/29   41.8  50.4   8.6
    9/30   41.4  50.8   9.4
    10/1   40.8  51.0  10.2
    10/2   40.4  51.2  10.8
    10/3   40.0  51.2  11.2
    10/4   40.0  51.6  11.6
    10/5   40.0  52.0  12.0
    10/6   40.2  51.8  11.6
    10/7   40.6  51.4  10.8
    10/8   40.8  51.4  10.6
    10/9   40.6  51.4  10.8
    10/10  40.4  51.4  11.0
    10/11  40.2  52.0  11.8
    10/12  40.0  52.4  12.4
    10/13  40.2  52.2  12.0
    10/14  40.6  52.2  11.6
    10/15  41.0  52.2  11.2
    10/16  41.8  51.6   9.8
    10/17  42.0  51.0   9.0
    10/18  42.4  50.8   8.4
    

    These numbers are derived using the daily percentages and sample size for five days going back from the listed day on each line.  The total sample size ends up being around 1800, which should have a margin of error below the 3% for the three day rounded numbers (2.3% if the formula I was given is correct).  The earliest numbers will be slightly stale, but this five day average helps to show more general trend movements by smoothing out noise present in shorter samplings.

    Finally, as a weekend special, here is an updated chart of the numbers above:

    R2K-5D-081019

    •  We're fine... (7+ / 0-)

      just keep doing what we're doing... GOTV, and O will keep doing what he's doing and we're golden...

      No need for panic. All is good right now.

    •  SLIME MACHINE call-robocall effects. (0+ / 0-)

      You can tell its the call-robocall system.

      The swing back of Republicans to 'Cain/Palin coincides with massive call bank operations.

      They have the whole Republican base in their databases.

      -- Full family structures

      -- Whoever answers, they know full name, nickname, and specific interests for political issues

      -- Phone scripts provide matching Talking Points

      -- Robocall follow-ups are shipped off to 527s, after the first call is from a human

      They. Lie. Their. Asses. Off.

      This Republican/fascist preference for lies was defined by the Neocons back in the 1940s and 50s. Strauss at Chicago, and then the elder Kristol. Sadly, these were right wing Jewish intellectuals. They understood what happened in Germany and copied methods from Goebbels and Himmler to serve their own purposes.

      Neocon politicians are now into the third generation of proto-fascist slime. Rove went to the same sources. Once they tied in with the Fundies -- culminating in the Empire of Evil terrorism lies that swamped Casey and Reagan -- they knew they had a lucrative, readily saleable political movement.

      There's always a twisty lie that works better than a garden-variety simple-minded truth.

      "If ya' ain't cheatin', ya' ain't tryin'" -- Texas H.S. football motto

      BTW: we don't mind giving it back to them. At least our shit touches reality. For Republican voters in South Florida and the Redneck Riviera:

      -- "What are the medical treatments that McCain is getting on weekends, when he stops campaigning and flies back to Arizona ?"

      -- "Why did Senator Gramm and McCain's North Carolina staff say that a small move toward PRIVATIZING SOCIAL SECURITY would solve the credit crunch ???"

      -- "What drug is McCain taking that caused the tongue-out episode at the last Presidential Debate ??"

      Droogie is as Droogie does....

      by vets74 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:21:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  stop the panic.... (5+ / 0-)

    This was inevitable--McCain getting 40% of the vote on election day was a ridiculous proposition to begin with.

    Obama is still going to win, and with $150 million in the bank they will make it happen.

    The electoral vote is insurmountable by McCain whether Obama is up 15 or 3 in these national polls.

    "People place their hand on the Bible and swear to uphold the Constitution. They don't put their hand on the Constitution and swear to uphold the Bible." --J.R.

    by michael1104 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:21:28 AM PDT

    •  what panic is that? (9+ / 0-)

      people have been remarkably reasonable.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:24:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it was more of a sarcastic (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        vets74, rock2casbah

        comment.

        But I do expect the polls to narrow even more. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 48-44 Dkos poll by the middle of next week. Which again, would still mean an Obama victory. I just never bought into the idea of a 15 point landslide and that may have even had a pernicious effect where say a 5 point victory sounds disappointing, which it clearly is not.

        "People place their hand on the Bible and swear to uphold the Constitution. They don't put their hand on the Constitution and swear to uphold the Bible." --J.R.

        by michael1104 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:36:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Big Big Endorsements -- line up with Colin Powell (0+ / 0-)

          Expect the big Republican newspapers to be followed by several elected politicians.

          I wouldn't be surprised to see Charlie Crist endorse Obama.

          Same for Chuck Hagel.

          There's major blowback in the winds from the crazy way McCain has been acting. He is not managing his campaign.

          He is repeating simplistic crap, no better than Palin. "Joe the Plumber" twenty times during a presidential debate ???? -- wow.

          Droogie is as Droogie does....

          by vets74 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:29:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Thank you. (5+ / 0-)

        Good God, one can't say, "Hmmm, looks like it's 'tightening up'"  or  "Alright, time to tough-it-out in the stretch, folks, it's still not over, yet"  without a half-dozen or so people weighing-in with "Stop the panic!" some kind of mocking or patronizing comment accusing the person of "panicking".  

        Looks like classic "projection" to me.

        Anyway, you're right.  And pointing out that the race is not over, that Democrats should/better not grow complacent, etc., etc. is not "panic".  It's common sense and, indeed, is what Obama campaign is more or less saying.

        bg
        ________________

        "We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown

        by BenGoshi on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:40:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Amen. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BenGoshi

          you would think that saying "the polls are showing some movement for McCain" is the same thing as saying "Obama can't win because of the Bradley effect, we are doomed" these last few days.

          Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

          by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:53:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Disagree... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          Two days ago, in the dKos polling thread, there really was panic in reaction to Obama's drop.  Comments basically saying "Obama will lose now because of racism" and "independents are breaking McCain's way" were seen.  Neither were reasonable kinds of comments.

          All that's happening is that the McCain campaign, in stoking as much hatred as they can among their base, has now put the economy out of the collective base's mind and fired up that base to vote against the evil Obama.  It won't be enough.

      •  I think we may (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mdmslle

        well be seeing a poll convergence, and the reality is three of the most reputable pollsters, Gallup, Rasmussen, and IBD have shown movement for us the last two days.  At any rate if a 5-7 point lead is Obama's "floor", and I believe that is the case, We will create a shortage of champagne on Election Night.

        Nov 4, 2008-The Day That "Yes We Can!" Became "Yes We Did!"

        by Bluejoy on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:41:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  So it looks like McCain has moved both GOPers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    notquitedelilah

    and independents his way over the last 4-5 days.

    Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

    by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:22:43 AM PDT

    •  now will you (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Quege, MKSinSA, leney, krwlngwthyou

      PLEASE calm down and stop disrupting the board with your chicken little pronouncements? That shit is tiring as hell.

      Ugh!

      -7.38, -5.23 The wait is over. Sen. Obama, walk into your season. It's your time.

      by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:24:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it was just a statement (6+ / 0-)

        and an accurate one.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:26:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  How is this not a calm statement? (4+ / 0-)

        How is this a chicken little statement?

        So it looks like McCain has moved both GOPers and independents his way over the last 4-5 days.

        I don't understand the vitriol you get on dkos for pointing out things that aren't going Obama's way.  Why does that move people to become unhinged?

        Not every trend will go Obama's way.  Take a deep breath.  

        Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

        by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:27:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  duha (6+ / 0-)

          This statement is fine. It's the countless others that you posted last night and over the last week. I just want you to calm the hell down.

          -7.38, -5.23 The wait is over. Sen. Obama, walk into your season. It's your time.

          by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:29:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Most of my statements have been the same way. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jmknapp, uc booker

            It's just responses to the vitriol I get for pointing out a trend that isn't going Obama's way.  There were huge battles when the trend started, because so many people were against even pointing out that the race was tightening.  As if it was a huge deal to acknowledge that McCain was moving up.  There were violent attacks that no, it's just noise, there's no way there could be a trend forming, etc.

            Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

            by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:31:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  As one of the resident 'chicken littles' (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            auapplemac, JaxDem

            may I say that even the Obama campaign has made public their 'nervousness' about getting too complacent.  Well I can swear that I am NOT overly confident.  

            I do appreciate when I voice concern that others will point out why the polls are narrowing, or other reasons (McCain's robo slime calls) for the closeness, but to be rude to those of us who are nervous, please quit the baggering.

            You can always skip reading any of my posts.  Less time consuming for you that way.

            •  I'm w/you on that one, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              auapplemac

              GrandmaJ. I get very, very nervous. That is why it's good to get a good dose of reality as to why the poll numbers are doing what they are doing from those here who are far more knowledgeable than I.

              My heart is filled with love for this country. Barack Obama

              by JaxDem on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:16:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  I agree w/ Cocoa... (6+ / 0-)

        Once or twice is fine, but seriously duha has been flooding a bunch of diaries with the same thing. It's definitely crossed the line from calm concern to Chicken Little.

        •  what bunch of diaries, diaries concerning talking (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          uc booker

          about polling?  Where else should we talk about polling trends?

          Point to an example where I'm talking about polling in a diary or frontpage post that isn't about polling.

          Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

          by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:32:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  please, all (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Kula2316

            let's stop. (I know you're the injured party, but) everyone should judge the posts here and now, not bring baggage real or imagined.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:41:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Why Do Chicken Littles Get All The Free Time? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Kula2316

        Rosie is the world's biggest chicken.  

        Our fierce German Shepherd guard chicken did have some Jehovah's fearing they would called home by Jehovah a bit earlier than they intended once.  Made Rosie real happy.  Man oh man did she sound fierce.

        Other times she is hiding under my desk when Jehovah is throwing thunderbolts at her or the brave hunters are out trying to do in Bambi.

        We still like Rosie. Most everybody likes the big chicken, except some Jehovah's witnesses I suppose.

        Would it not be best to not get rattled and leave all the chickens clucking or even woofing as they might?  

        The chicken littles raising the most concern are Obama and his team.  You going to condemn them?

        Just a thought.  We are all on the same side aren't we?

        Best,  Terry

    •  more GOP than indies (0+ / 0-)

      plus a few ticks on the 'white vote'.

      Don't forget a point or two is not a statistically significant number.

      In any case, we apparently are seeing stability, with an Obama lead overall and with independents.

      Time will tell.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:26:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not real happy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Kula2316

        with that float with the independents.

        Still, this is our race to win.  And win it we will.

        Obama's got the ground game to make it happen.

      •  I suspect it's the ACORN flap + Joe the plumber (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mdmslle, rock2casbah

        stuff moving over white indy's and GOPers who were going to go back over anyway, might as well have them move now then later.

        Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

        by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:29:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  it's not clear anyone else moves (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rock2casbah

          the GOP base ain't what it used to be.

          The best scenario is that it moves no one.

          The second best is that it moves the GOP base and they lose anyway so we can stop overestimating them.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:34:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  IMHO (0+ / 0-)

          The biggest changes over the last few days have been:

          1. The media is dividing their attention, focusing on other things besides the economy that aren't as negative for McCain,
          1. The bailout package passed, and
          1. Gas prices are coming down, leading to the sense that
          1. The economic crisis has been dealt with, or at least isn't as much of a crisis now.
    •  Argghh! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vets74

      We just went through this yesterday! There is nothing worthy of freaking out about as long as everyone is still doing what they do. We're in fine shape.

    •  Movement in age groups (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha, vets74, Micheline, rock2casbah

      I found it interesting that McCain is back ahead with the 30-44 crowd (which we haven't seen for several weeks) but Obama has stayed ahead in the 60+ crowd.  It looks like the senior segment of the voters has decided to stay with Obama but the 30-44 group is being a bit flaky.

      •  yes (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        duha, RadioGirl, mdmslle, rock2casbah

        I'll post some graphs on that tomorrow. That's the reagan crowd (grew up with him) and is also the 'investor class'.

        The 60+ better remember Dem presidents, the Depression, fights over Social Security, and what it means to lose value on your 401K.

        Plus, they have to face Sarah Silverman.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:32:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That group I think is more concerned about (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mostman, rennert

        taxes above the grade where they are at now.  The seniors basically know what their income sources will be, and want them protected by a dem.  The 30-44 investor class wants to think like a grade above where they are at, so even though they will pay less taxes under Obama, they want to think about how they hope they will be in the top class very soon, and they respond to the GOP tax argument.

        Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

        by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:36:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The 30-44 crowd has most of young churchgoers... (0+ / 0-)

        in the middle of raising their children.

        This is THE TARGET GROUP for the GOP/fascist call/robocall slime attacks.

        They are now getting 20 calls a week.

        You can see the effect with return of GOP voters to 'Cain -- the second graph above: support from same party.

        This has to do with changes to resources and tactics, not to issues. Zero for issues, other than the ACORN "destroying democracy" slime attack.

        McCain and Palin on the stump are 100% lead-ins for the calls/robocalls.

        "She turned me into a newt... I got better" -- it'll wear off. Expect half of these folks to return to Obama.

        Droogie is as Droogie does....

        by vets74 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:54:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The race is tightening (0+ / 0-)

      I expect this race to be close, but Obama will still win.

      McCain did gain some ground. He won back some Republicans and won over some independents. However, Obama's poll numbers are still at least 48% and often higher. In other words, McCain is gaining ground, but Obama is pretty close to the top, if he's not over already.

      "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat." - Will Rogers

      by wayward on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 06:02:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nate had suggested (11+ / 0-)

    Between "Joe the Plumber", "spread the wealth", "I'm not George Bush", etc., however, McCain at least now seems to have a few somewhat more constructive talking points (in that sense, the fact that the Ayers attacks went over like a lead balloon at the debate might have done him a favor). So some of those crestfallen conservatives might have moved back into the likely voter universe.

    link

    That seems reasonable based on this data.

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:23:26 AM PDT

    •  Obama now has an archive of commercials (5+ / 0-)

      that are provable as working.

      Run the top 3 radio/television ads, especially the more uplifting types, and watch the red states tighten up !

      •  One ad that I think either the DNC or the Obama (3+ / 0-)

        campaign itself should run would be a quick but brutal retrospective of everything that the Republican Party has fucked up in the past eight years.  I really think people need one more reminder of everything that we mean when we say, "more of the same": lying us into a war against a country that hadn't attacked us, ruining our reputation abroad, destroying the economy with their  crackpot ideology, Katrina, and corruption, corruption, corruption.  Any reasonable, moderate person even thinking of voting for McCain/Palin may benefit from such a review.

    •  We've all spent the last several days (0+ / 0-)

      focusing on McCain. He's taken over the spotlight. He's all everyone talks about.

      "Joe the plumber. Joe the plumber. Joe the plumber."

      He did this previously by selecting Sarah Palin, and that got him a bump in the polls. He tried it by suspending his campaign, but it didn't work--the economy overshadowed it.

      We're letting him lead the dialogue. We need to stop reinforcing his frames, we need to stop discussing him, and keep the focus of the media on us. We need to keep the spotlight on Dems.

      You cannot depend upon American institutions to function without pressure. --MLK Jr.

      by Opakapaka on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 08:31:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Most MSM news outlets (0+ / 0-)

      were  showing clips of McCain "I am not Bush, if you ....."  without Obama's reply as some sort of major winning game changer for McCain.  That is one reason.  

      The other is the Joe the Plumber ruse has not been exposed for what it was.  The same manipulation and posing prevalent in this campaign. We backed off totally due to fear of being label attack dogs.  Which is not the case at all.

      Then 4 days of positive friendly spin for McCain.  Even my daughter who knows better was complimenting McCain on his "funny" Al Smith Dinner appearance talked about at her job.  

      Now we all flock to Palin's SNL episode, even though out of morbid curiosity.  SNL will be hawking the amazing popularity of Palin exhibited through her high ratings numbers that we ingeniously help to bolster.

      Therefore, swing is to be expected.  I suggest we get to work on our own behalf the rest of this election.  You are now experiencing another "bounce" thanks to our laxity and tendency toward "good manners" as opposed to toeing the party line as the repubs always do at least to win something.

  •  Nate Silver has Arkansas more reachable than ND & (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74, uc booker

    Montana...$150- million dollars instantly puts Georgia/Arkansas and the remainder of the Mississippi Valley markets on the radar.

    •  not sure I believe that assessment (2+ / 0-)

      Georgia maybe. Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, it would take a miracle. Mississippi will be close. The other two, dream on.

      I grew up in Mississippi and know the region. Some things have changed for the better. But not nearly enough.

      -7.38, -5.23 The wait is over. Sen. Obama, walk into your season. It's your time.

      by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:27:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nate has Arkansas at 18% (0+ / 0-)

        NDakota at 18%, Montana at 8%...The Clinton-Wes Clark Combo in Arkansas/advertising dollars that would bleed into Southern Missouri, W. Tenn/KY, Oklahoma and TX would be the double bonus of playing around money.

        http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

      •  Arkansas is more similar to w VA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Theghostofkarlafayetucker

        in voting habits, but no one consistently polls Arkansas.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:36:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It sits there like a ferris wheel with NO lines (0+ / 0-)

          McCain's advertising hands are tied, Memphis is Dem friendly...

          I'm just thinking down ticket, how Arkansas' location is such a keystone that could be dislodged, to the benefit of the neighboring lower Mississippi Valley.

          Mention Shrub and the levees, that will draw some anger!

      •  Pray for Georgia. Take Out Saxby Chambliss. (0+ / 0-)

        Jim Martin has been running close -- down a couple points recently and UP in the early voting -- with no national support.

        Well, no support but VETERANS nationwide going all out to help him.

        The VFK vols are now up over 1,000 grunts 'n such doing volunteer work for him. We owe it to triple-amputee Vietnam vet, Max Cleland. Slimed by Saxby Chambliss. Payback for the worst of GOP/fascist depravity:

        Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland,
        Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland,
        Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland,
        Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland,
        Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland,
        Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland,
        Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland, Max Cleland.

        Plus our digging on Saxby Chambliss. turns out he was the author for the bizarrely misnamed 1999 Military Extraterritoriality Act while he was a Congressman. That's what got him GOP/fascist promotion to the Senate.

        That Act is also what put the mercenary firms -- such as Blackwater -- outside of legal control for war zones.

        By way of comparison, Bachmann in Minnesota is crazy-fascist and simple minded. Saxby Chambliss is crazy-fascist and smart, dangerous.

        No Saxby Chambliss, no Blackwater -- at least on the scale where its a private army with tens of thousands of men.

        Saxby Chabliss in the military ??? -- His robocalls imply it. THE TRUTH is that he got 6 deferrals. Six of 'em.

        His so-called "tours" are well-insulated trips to Iraq and Afghanistan, not Vietnam. Another chicken-hawk fascist coward, same as Cheney.

        Gotta keep Saxby Chambliss from building seniority.

        Please: jimmartin-dot-com and give time and/or money. Best use nationwide for anti-fascist resources.

        Droogie is as Droogie does....

        by vets74 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 06:17:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  We're (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    First Amendment, Mettu

    only winning by "a lot" instead of a "a ton"...we're doomed!  DOOOMED!  DOOOOOOMED!

    Sarah Palin's voice now makes my TV automatically mute itself.

    by Jeffersonian on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:24:01 AM PDT

  •  One thing that appears to be happening (4+ / 0-)

    is that the R2K tracker is coming into line with the other daily polls.

    Everybody else has had a fairly consistent 5-8 point lead while R2K was all the way up to thirteen points.  Having come back to seven, you're no longer an outlier.

    •  true by numbers but not clear (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RadioGirl

      by chosen demo. if we weight youth more, the population hasn't suddenly gotten older in our poll.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:37:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I want the two point back (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Yosef 52, vets74

    maybe powell (whatever he says) will do that this week

  •  The numbers are stabilizing... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, wishingwell, rock2casbah, uc booker

    now watch for an Obama surge over the next 10 days. We've had some good press the last couple of days. McCain can't get out of the low 40's. Bad news for him.

    Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

    by First Amendment on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:29:27 AM PDT

    •  McCain will get out of the low 40s. (0+ / 0-)

      he won't be going in to 11/4 at 42 or 43, let's be real.  He'll continue to creep up because that's what happens.  As long as Obama stays at or around 50 he'll be ok.

      Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

      by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:46:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes he will, but (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        duha, rock2casbah

        to be in the low 40's this late in the game is not good.

        Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

        by First Amendment on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:08:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  As big Republicans endorse Obama ??? (0+ / 0-)

        Colin Powell is not the only Republican who simply cannot stomach the possibility of PRESIDENT PALIN.

        McCain put his 5-minute attention span ahead of nominating an intelligent, educated American.

        Its not just losing the Chicago Tribune. Obama's from Chicago, so that's understandable.

        McCain has serious health problems -- he's really out of the show for 2 1/2 days a week now -- so Palin is a show-stopper for the long-term professionals.

        Its not just Powell. You're going to see others move to preserve the GOP.

        Second thing: enough with the NeoCons. McCain is a creature of the NeoCons, now. And he has been for five years. That bullshit can't win against middle-of-the-road Democrats in most all of the country.

        Droogie is as Droogie does....

        by vets74 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 06:34:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Racists coming home to roost (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lisa66, JanL, duha, rock2casbah

    No time to panic, time to get back in track and put in a little more effort.

    If nothing else, this may stop any worries about complacency & people not coming out on Election Day since "Obama is so far ahead."

    All stressed out and no one to choke. -6.00, -6.31

    by billssha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:30:22 AM PDT

  •  One thing is for sure... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74, rock2casbah

    at this rate Zogby is going to look like a horses ass again. ;-)

    Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

    by First Amendment on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:31:00 AM PDT

    •  Zogby should be barred (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rock2casbah

      from polling. Too bad that field is not regulated.

      -7.38, -5.23 The wait is over. Sen. Obama, walk into your season. It's your time.

      by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:32:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  now let's not bar Zogby, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        vets74

        comic relief is a good thing.

      •  zogby is a joke (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rock2casbah

        In one day he has independents going from plus 16 to plus 8 for Obama.I`m guessing he is using 2004 data because his result is very similar to gallups traditional result.
        I think tightening was to be expected and even zogby has Obama over 270 electoral votes and that`s before
        you assume he is winning most of the tossup states.

        •  Its worse than 2004 data... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rock2casbah

          He is sampling MORE Republicans than Democrats.  MORE.  Someone posted a breakdown on Pollster on this.

          Go read his writeup on todays poll - if you come away saying either of these things:

          1. This man is not biased
          1. This man has a real grasp on what is going on

          I have a bridge to sell you :)

          However, and I have said this before, this poll is good for one thing - it illustrates the absolute floor of Obama's support.  If the youth vote doesn't show, if party ID turns out to be even, if the GOP base is far more energized than it appears to be - here are your numbers.  The same can be said for the traditional Gallup LV model.

          The people hanging their hat on Zogby or the traditional Gallup are in for a seriously nasty surprise on election day.  Just my 2 cents.

  •  Thanks for good polling data (0+ / 0-)

    and even better explanation of the data.

    I was wondering about Clinton's numbers at this point in 92 ... was he cruising long this smoothly?

    •  remem, Perot was the hot item in '92... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BenGoshi, wishingwell, duha
    •  Compare these. (3+ / 0-)

      Compare this EV Map from yesterday (18 October), to this EV Map from 18 October 2004.

      Interesting.

      bg
      ____________

      "We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown

      by BenGoshi on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:44:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  different dynamics (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        duha, vets74

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:54:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not quite sure what you're trying to say. (0+ / 0-)

          I, ahem, get that the races and years are different.  That's kind of my point in posting the comparator EV Maps:  the results of the "different dynamics" on the ground are reflected in where the EV count is now, compared to '04.

          Maybe that's what you're saying, too.

          bg
          __________________________________

          "We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown

          by BenGoshi on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:33:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm saying you have to read the stuff together (0+ / 0-)

            Kerry slightly ahead vs where he was on Charles Franklin's map.

            Obama vs where he is on same map.

            Provides context. Otherwise, it could be misinterpreted as 'well kerry was ahead and he lost'.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:56:47 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Uh, no. (0+ / 0-)

              1. Both sites (the '08 and '04) are chock-full of "context" --  i.e. dates, states, state-by-state poll #s, what polling companies are providing the numbers used, etc.  The other, broader "context", that I believe the people visiting Daily Kos can readily "get", is that 2008 and Obama v. McCain is quite different from 2004 and Kerry v. Bush.  And, again, it's the differences in the election years and the candidates that are, of course, making/driving the differences in these two comparator maps.

              2.  Moreover, I'm not sure what you mean by "well kerry was ahead and he lost".  In fact, the Oct 18 EV map featured shows Kerry with a less-than-40 EV lead when that "snapshot" was taken; whereas the same day, yesterday, in 2008 shows Obama with an almost 200 EV lead.  I will rely on the intelligence of anyone who wishes to look at the two different pages/days to figure out on their own that your hypothetical syllogism is a false one (not that you're making it, but that you think others will leap to that conclusion due to "not enough context").

              bg
              _______________

               

              "We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown

              by BenGoshi on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 06:08:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  My hunch, FWIW (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, BenGoshi, duha, notquitedelilah
    is that McCain has re-attracted a small portion of the middle that had been repulsed by his lurch to the right, without losing the right.

    Actually as a strategy, it's the one that might have made sense: lurch to the right to collect the base, then back to the middle to reassure the anti-Bush centre, where most of the votes are.

    Except that it clearly wasn't a strategy at all, and so risks appearing to be exactly what it is: an entirely event-led attempt to plug the vote-leaks as and when they appear.

    But it might nonetheless stem the total outflow, and raise the water-level a bit within.

    •  the real argument (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Loose Fur

      is whether he should have camapigned this way all aliong.

      Hi, Febble! So glad to see you posting.

      I will resurrect this diary when we get closer to the election.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:39:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well yes. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DemFromCT, duha
        When the post mortem starts, and the epitaphs, the verdict will be that he fatally damaged his own brand.

        It's a pity Shakespeare isn't around to write the play.

      •  If McCain were a true Maverick he would have (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, Febble, vets74, mdmslle

        picked Lieberman or Ridge and ran for the center right off the bat.  

        Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

        by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:49:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bingo. Maverick =NOT EQ= NeoCon stooge (0+ / 0-)

          I'm also waiting for the obvious cartoon: 'Cain down on his knees... with one of the Fundie Fanatic Televangelist's cum dripping off his crazy-looking tongue.

          Not suitable for this family web site.

          The cartoon Fundie do gotta be done with a horribly deformed, discolored prick. Clap City.

          McCain deserves this one. Porn immortality.

          BTW: this kinda cartoon shit floats around pretty well with the vets.

          We believe in fucking over our enemies.

          Turn the other cheek if you want. We won't mind. To each, his own.

          Droogie is as Droogie does....

          by vets74 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 06:45:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I will throw a (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DemFromCT, Febble, Loose Fur

        theory out there, cold weather.  Republicans love the outdoors, and with the cold weather setting in, perhaps pollsters that do not weight were picking up larger samples of Republicans who were staying at home.  I have noticed they love to go for walks after dinner and the minivan moms love to stroller walk.  Don't laugh, I never believed O was up by more than eight, and it seems his lead is sevenish about now.  All in all, maybe a point of drop.  And we should be getting back the momentum soon.

        Nov 4, 2008-The Day That "Yes We Can!" Became "Yes We Did!"

        by Bluejoy on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:55:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  LA Times doesn't weight (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          emptywheel

          Susan Pinkus, their pollmeister thinks you should take it as it comes for party ID. But most others weight for something in the party ID.

          I am unsure of who does not, but the pollsters are not always transparent about internals.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:00:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Democrats love the outdoors for itself, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          vets74

          not just for what they can kill in it, or muddy up with 4WDs.  

          Plus, it's raining these days in Oregon.

          R2000 -- I'm at home, waiting for your phone call.

    •  then those voters are both pretty dim (0+ / 0-)

      if they fall for that kind of gyration

  •  ROFLMAO! Zogby thinks... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MadEye, duha, vets74, Loose Fur, Kula2316

    http://www.zogby.com/...

    McCain's strong performance at the Alfred E. Smith charity dinner in New York City Thursday, combined with his appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman Thursday night, may have had a positive effect.

    Confirmation that Zogby is a tool pollster.

    Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

    by First Amendment on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:39:41 AM PDT

    •  It may well have (0+ / 0-)

      Both were broadcast nationally, with teh Al Smith speech rebroadcast.McCain was hysterical at the dinner. And he was humbled at Letterman. Both sides of McCain we haven't seen in a while.

      Also remember, one demo they're still fighting over is Catholics. McCain made a bid towards Catholics' culture of life, which I'm sure came off well. And Obama's claim that he wasn't born in a manger seemed to piss off teh Cardinal (never mind that's McCain's slur about Obama). So there are specific things from the dinner that may have swayed Catholics.

      This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

      by emptywheel on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:22:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Zogby's Internals (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SoCalLiberal, rennert

      OG Liberal posts a comment at pollster.com concerning the internal numbers for Zogby:

      I have all the internals.

      The Party ID split is 38-36-26 (D-R-I). Zogby uses a methodology which appears to much closer to Gallup traditional which yesterday showed Obama +2, than Gallup Expanded which showed Obama +4, than Gallup (RV) which showed Obama +8. Bottom line is that with RV movement strongly favoring Dems is key states, that polls which discount RV, which Zogby does, underestimate strength of candidate associated with new RV momentum, in this case the Dems.

      Also notable is that Zogby frequency for AA is identical to 2004. There is no assumption that race affinity would move this number.

      Finally, inexplicable to me at least, is why Zogby weights gender as I posted above with 51% female where as in 2004 the split was 54% female. Again, this seems to me to suggest an an actual electorate which is consistent with census and not consistent with who will turn out on election day.

      Be pleased to respond with specifics to pollsters on the internals from this poll.

      •  That 38-36 split for D-R is funny. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCDemocrat

        51% for female, too.

        They think its 1984 ???

        Or the 1920s, when a lot of women didn't register.

        That is a hoot.

        BTW: you can see the change to electorate with the Early Voter results from Georgia. It goes heavier for older voters, as usual, but that's not the big story.

        Turnout for Blacks and Liberals is more than 50% above "normal."

        Droogie is as Droogie does....

        by vets74 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 06:54:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Not bad internals (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    Obama lost some white support. He is at 38% but it would be great to get it back up to around 40%. It will be essential to turn out the 18-29 yr old whites. The latino number is still great and gives Obama a bit of a firewall in support in Colarado and Nevada. He is still leading among Indies which McCain has to win by a convincing margin to have a chance. My Favorite numbers are the Fav/UnFav ratings. Obama has cracked 60% fav which proves the smears are falling flat. McCain only has 45% fav, which means that he probably will not be able to garner much more support than this 45%. McCain I think is maxed out on support now. He cant move up unless he improves his Fav rating, and its too late for that now I think.

  •  May I also point (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lisa66, wishingwell, duha

    out that after three successive weeks of disastrous drops in the stock market, last week saw a bounce.

    Some movement in the polls was to be expected.

  •  I expect the emphasis from Obama (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cici414, wishingwell, leney, Loose Fur

    ...in the coming days:  
         Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.  McCain has no plan for creating jobs, and the plan he has is the same old plan that got us into this mess.  

          An ad about how small businesses will prosper under Obama.  Prosperity is a powerful word.  

          Obama can win back the tax argument -- he won it a few weeks ago and McCain won it back.  Hit McCain on the hidden taxes under McCain.  And the types of spending cuts that will decimate Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, education, safe medicine and food (which has suffered under Bush anyway).  Show people the consequences of McCain's actions.  

          Don't tell us about the same old tired ideas, show us why they're tired, ineffective ideas.  I think the flaky indys and the selfish 30-44 crowd don't understand how this works.  

    •  Hmmmmm... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, mdmslle

      I think Obama will get a big endorsement this morning......and the talk over the next few days will be about National Security.  I hope Powell will discuss the fact that McCain's foreign policy team is from the same cast of characters as Bush's.  Yeah, those guys.

      But there is no reason why Obama can't talk about both- Foreign Policy and jobs!

    •  agreed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      i am convinced thats why he's gaining in 60+. I;m in FL and see social security ads all the time that say McCain voted 40 times (like bush) to privatize. Then they show pictures of Lehman etc. I think it is extremely effective. But he's flooding the state with highly effective ads of many types.

      IMO the argument boils down to his simple message:

      What EXACTLY has McCain said he'll do differently than Bush? SPECIFICS? NOTHING. He still believes in giving tax breaks to the big corporation and hoping it creates jobs. But in 8 years it hasnt. I'm not ready to try it again. Until McCain can explain how exactly he breaks from the plan we already KNOW doesnt work, i'm not listening to anything he says. Period.

  •  Southern strategy (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teammjs, duha, leney, Kula2316

    Look at the internals for regional numbers. McCain blows Obama away in the "South".  Obama is up big or huge everywhere else.  

    The South has always been strong for McCain and it appears his posting his gains there, where he already leads.  Perhaps, all the hate speech and implicit racial undertones to McCain/Palin rallies has increased his strength there.

    But, you don't get bonus EVs by winning by 45% in OK...

    Barack's strength is in the layout of the map.  Look where all of the campaigning is taking place: red states.  We're still looking at a large EV victory, as well as the largest Pop Vote victory in some time.  Only one of those matters, though.

  •  McCain's angry and nasty debate performance (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lisa66, wishingwell, mdmslle

    helped bring home his base. Telling.

    Don't Legitimize Fox News.
    "Democrats have the heart to care."

    by jeepdad on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:49:56 AM PDT

  •  Two graphs are the most informative (0+ / 0-)

    in your post today, at the bottom:

    "looking at how each candidate does with his own party" (over the last 5 weeks)

    and

    "looking at independents over the last week"

    I haven't noticed these before and to me they are among the most informative of all.  Thank you.  Maybe they deserve little subheadings (although I realize you don't do subheadings).  They definitely deserve regular repeating (every day, I hope).  

    But I just noticed the different time frames of the "own party" graph and the "independents" graph.  Both show every day, but one is compressed horizontally.  Would it be possible to post them with identical horizontal scales?

    I would be happy with about 3 weeks of data (halfway between the 5 weeks and 7 days of the two graphs you displayed), but can live with something else.

    Another note: When I examined the "own party" graph closely, I saw that it has daily ticks, just like the "indepependents" graph (although compressed).  

    A question: Are those true dailies in both graphs, or is each daily tick a 3-day tracking average?  For "own party" they must be true dailies; not sure about the other.

    Final notes:  WOW!  Look at the two-day jump on 10/17 and 10/18 for GOP ("own party" graph) (6% total).  Base really coming home.  Why?

    WOW!  Look at the two-day jump on 10/17 and 10/18 in the independents (7% total).  This consists of move upwards of 3% in the "McCain Independents" (which could be base coming home) but also a drop of 3% in "Obama independents."  Why?  Maybe they all paid attention for just the first 30 minutes of the debate, and turned to the baseball game before the eye-blinking and other bad behavior by McCain began?

    Anyway, I would love it if I had seen these two graphs with the same horizontal time boundaries, rather than one compressed and the other stretched.

    You do great work for a pediatric pulmonologist with an expertise in avian flu!

    •  Interesting according nielsen not a lot of people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      saw the debate in its entirety.

      •  oh really? well now that could mean something (0+ / 0-)

        one, it was boring!  which I agree with ;)

        but two, mccain did fair better in the first half. I think most everyone agrees with that. maybe this is why he is getting a little bump?

        Mr. Puddles? Mr. Puddles, where are you? Has anyone seen my dog? Mr. Puddles? I have snausages.

        by krwlngwthyou on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 09:05:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  all data is three day data from the internals (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha

      posted each calendar day.

      I only looked at this week's indies because I was lazy. We have data going back to 9/11, but the question wasn't what hwere they doing in Sep, it's what happened to explain a 13->7 point lead.

      so...

      slightly different time frames. Indies moved first.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:11:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  here's another (0+ / 0-)

      latinos

      Al Smith dinner, pro-life confirmation in debate, etc.. conservative Latinos are coming home to the GOP. Still a huge Obama lead.

      Kerry won that vote 53-44 in 2004.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:53:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What actually happened (4+ / 0-)

    is Obama caught a perfect storm of three things peaking at the same time:

    (1) economic uncertainty (worst week for market ever)
    (2) McCain erratic behaivor (campaign suspension stunt)
    (3) dumb dumb Palin (interview footage)

    All 3 of these have moved down a bit.  The bailout passed, market and atms seem to be ok for the moment.   McCain stopped pretending he wasn't campaigning and Palin got some favorable coverage by meeting the extremely low bar she had in the debate.  

    Look for backlash on robo-calls to start showing up in about mid the coming week.  

    Scare-a Palin: Democratic Fundraiser of the Century

    by Steko on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 04:58:24 AM PDT

    •  McCain sounding like a phony populist (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, vets74
      •  "John the Plumber." (0+ / 0-)

        That's of the WATERGATE PLUMBERS.

        The G. Gordon Liddy persuasion.........

        The worst democracy-bashing thugs since Arron Burr.

        BTW: there was also a Washington Plumbers.....  Not to be confused with the Watergate criminals.

        That was the local D.C. area chess team that won the first national team championship in 1976. Played over the telephone, prior to the Internet.

        Still remembered for a unique chess magazine cover: the whole D.C. team laying hands on a plunger.

        Droogie is as Droogie does....

        by vets74 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 07:07:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The McCain Campaign (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha, vets74, Micheline, Loose Fur

      are master at creating blacklash against their own campaign. They are incredibly tone deaf.

      •  indedd setting themselves up for EPIC FAIL (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        vets74

        they overdo everything. They are the kings of hyperbole and thats why they lost so much ground earlier in the campaign:

        Now NoVA is communist part of VA
        NoVA is not the real VA
        Palin likes to visit POR american parts of the country

        and the mailers and robo calls are just really over the top as if Obama IS Osama smuggled in underneath the radar.

        They did it with the sex ed for kindergardeners ad' with Palin's foreign policy experience b/c of Russia claims and ACORN possibly destroying democracy...Its a pattern. They just exaggerate EVERYTHING and it erodes any credibility from them and alwasy ends up backfiring.

  •  Rasmussen Sunday O51 (up 1) M45 (same) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    Sunday, October 19, 2008

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the final Presidential debate and shows that the race continues to remain quite stable. Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day for twenty-four straight days while McCain’s total has been between 44% and 46% during those days.

    •  Nate is tuned in well to the daily samples (0+ / 0-)

      Two days ago he said he thought the Thursday night sample had been strong for Obama, and it looks like it was, Obama having ticked up two points in the margin since then it this glacially-static poll.

  •  Anecdotal story - college kid tells me he had (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    trouble getting an absentee ballot.  Then he proceeds to tell me how all his friends, while Obama supporters, either didn't register or didn't get absentee ballots.

    It appears that the GOTV push is going to be critical.    The newly registered voters better show up and vote.

    •  Was this due to complacecy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, sweeper

      I have been door-knocking in areas that 90% Obama to do early voting in FL and boy there are some who have been complacent and don't feel the urgency.

      •  Florida is the land of detachment. People don't (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, Micheline

        get excited much.  Floridians don't feel they have much stake in national issues.  It's big and spread out.  It's difficult to get a united feeling and a movement going.  That's where Republicans have the advantage.  The wealthy and the retired are pretty dialed in to the voting habit.

        Also, there is the oppressive hand of Republican state politics.

        Wake UP, Floridians!!!

        Looks like McCain is ahead in the polls here.

    •  FYI the obama campaign isnt hoping they'll showup (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, krwlngwthyou

      and vote.

      They have lists of voters who are "irregu;ar" but are dems and/or declared supporters. They also have lists of all new registrants. They also have lists of every regstered voters (dem/rep/ind) who has requested an absentee ballot.

      Where i live in Florida, we are not waiting for election day. We are phone banking and canvassing these targeted populations to drag them from their homes to the early voting stations starting Monday. For those who we phone banked or canvassed earlier this summer who are supporters and who are receiving their absentee ballots we are phone banking them again to arrange pick up of their completed ballots.

      In my town we've set a goal: 50% in the can by Nov. 4

      The campaign is leaving nothing to chance. Dont worry. We are not HOPING anyone is showing up> we are supposing that without our effort they wont.

      In other news: for the three days from Nov. 2 until Nov.4 (after early vote ends and before polls open for election day) we will be canvassing and phone banking the refreshed list of those supporters who have not yet voted. Offering rides. The campaign will be setting up a ride hotline. In our town we are working 350 shifts over those days leading up to the election day.

  •  What are the Latino numbers? (0+ / 0-)

    R2K is skewed more to Latinos than other polls. So the drop in Obama's numbers here--but not necessarily in other polls, may reflect a drop in Latino support.

    This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

    by emptywheel on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:04:36 AM PDT

    •  I don't see why, based on the stories (0+ / 0-)

      dominating the news cycles in the past week, it's far more likely the support comes from the shift in white vote.  The Latinos are pretty solidly behind Obama, by 30-40 points in most states west of the Mississippi.

      Don't ignore the ACORN attack.

      by duha on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:12:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  it's (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duha, vets74, Micheline

      68-28-2 now
      67-21-10 on 10/15 (and pretty stable all Oct)

      so undecideds broke for McCain and Obama lost no support.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:18:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  where do you get "a couple points movement" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duha, abraxas

    for independents? What I see on the graph is -4 Obama and +3 MaCain. That is 7 points change overall.  That is not "a couple" is it?

    •  I'm looking at each line not the difference (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      since they were in opposite directions, it adds up to seven.

      The question remains whether they data is significant (with a MoE of 3 for each number) or permanent (we'll see.

      It was enough to make me post the graph so everyone could see it for themsleves. It's not enough to convince me it was as important as the GOP base consolidation.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:15:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Secret Weapon (Joe the Plummer) (0+ / 0-)

    What is with Mccains secret weapon "Joe the Plummer"
    Rus. will take a poll on it.

    By the way in my oppinion the Gallop poll with only
    2% Obama lead is a good one because Obamas people
    have complained about confidentness and cockyness
    and resulting of this could be a problem with fundraising because some people might think he does not need it anymore.

  •  Is it true this poll changed the Party ID (0+ / 0-)

    recently by lowering the Dems 5%? I read it somewhere else and wanted to confirm.

    Don't Legitimize Fox News.
    "Democrats have the heart to care."

    by jeepdad on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:22:54 AM PDT

  •  Nate Silver (0+ / 0-)

    has an interesting discussion here:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...

  •  I like Nate's (0+ / 0-)

    explanation of how McC could have gained support in the trackers after a debate that most people thought he lost: he energized his core supporters enough so that more of them now answer questions in the right way to qualify as "likely voters."

    When civilizations clash, barbarism wins.

    by Allogenes on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:44:04 AM PDT

  •  So insofar as the debate yielded results... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Quege, First Amendment, abraxas

    ...one could say that McCain eked out a small victory in the third debate given that he caused some Republicans to "come home" following his angry display.  Republicans, at least the kind who get whipped up into a froth at Sarah Palin's hate rallies, like the new angry McCain.  It still won't be enough to win.

    Half-baked ideas for sale - cheap!

    by Steaming Pile on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 05:46:29 AM PDT

  •  Off topic, but Powell endorses Obama (0+ / 0-)

    per MSNBC just now.

    I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.

    by beemerr90s on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 06:17:08 AM PDT

  •  Today (0+ / 0-)

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 06:24:04 AM PDT

  •  Today's numbers look very good for Obama. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, vets74

    He had a good day on R2K and Ras.  Zogby's internals seem even better for Obama than those two polls.

    There the usual handwringing on this site, but as Nate Silver said, the state polls don't seem to match the alleged tightening in the national trackers.

    What we see is that McCain had a good day on Thursday and that is skewing the results somewhat.  In my view, it had a lot to do with 2 or 3 days of quiet from Obama and a more active McCain, combined with the focus on Joe the Plumber, which Obama didn't put to much effort into countering.

    Once that day falls off and a few more days added, the averages should go back up slightly to the 8-10 point range.  Now, Zogby is clearly skewing the results, which was expected, but the internals of his poll point to an even wider victory for Obama than predicted by our own Dkos/R2K poll, because of Obama's larger lead among indies.  

    Friday was a great day for Obama with the S-ct ruling, the VA event, some of the endorsements, good state polling, the dismantling of the cult of Joe the Plumber among other things.

    Saturday was even better with more good state polling, two massive rallies in MO, and more interesting endorsements.

    Today is already better than that with the Powell endorsement. I think we all know that the endorsement means something politically.  Obama will control the next two news cycle with that endorsement, and that effectively shortens the campaign and gives him a boost going into the final 2 weeks.

    I would not be surprised to see McCain give up a few points he gained among indies and Obama's lead expand upwards once Thursday and Friday's polling fall off.

    All that said, I think McCain reached the point of mathematical elimination after yesterday's rallies in Missouri.  175,000 in a state that was supposed to be a relatively easy hold for McCain had to send a shockwave up their spines.  I have little doubt that Obama is leading in the state, and there are no credible scenarios where McCain can win the election without MO.  There is no way for McCain to plug all the holes in the dam.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 06:35:37 AM PDT

    •  Compare polling vs. early voting for Georgia. (0+ / 0-)

      And traditionally, early voting has gone more for older voters.

      Obama was up 8% early last week in the exit polls.

      If there's any validity to those exit polls, this is gonna be interesting.

      Droogie is as Droogie does....

      by vets74 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 07:15:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Its the ECONOMY, Stupid... (0+ / 0-)

    for better or worse Obama's numbers peaked with the height of the crisis...

    it is a shame that Americans seem to have ADD...

    you can talk about Ayers, Acorn, and Joe the Plumber...but as the economy issue has faded, Obama's numbers have faded....

    let's hope the Fox News level SPLITS in endorsements causes a bit of a bump in the polls...

    Obama '08: One House, One Spouse. John McCain: Prisoner Of W.

    McCain is not a maverick, he is a gambler!

    by justmy2 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 07:56:10 AM PDT

  •  PPP WV: M:50,O:42 (0+ / 0-)

    "Four seconds is the longest wait " -Sleater-Kinney

    by delphil on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 07:58:01 AM PDT

    •  If Obama wins WV, we are in historic (0+ / 0-)

      landslide territory....

      let's focus on VA, OH, and CO...

      I see an Ohio loss, so we have to have VA, to offset a NV or IA change in pace...

      Obama '08: One House, One Spouse. John McCain: Prisoner Of W.

      McCain is not a maverick, he is a gambler!

      by justmy2 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 08:00:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think we are seeing state polls.. (0+ / 0-)

    catch upto the tightening at the national level.

  •  I think I saw the slip live at the debate (0+ / 0-)

    The campaign has to step down hard on that "spread the wealth" and "Acorn" meme.  Sitting back on a lead fallacy is a problem.

    That was not what the tax cuts are about.  These are about the working classes who pay their taxes and work hard .   All that share the wealth and the patriotic thing to do sounds socialist.

    You leave a deadbeat/welfare recipient taste in these dithering, wishy washy voters.  Wrong though they may be that is the way they think or they would have been decided by now.

    They are looking for a reason to not vote for Obama.  Any reason that they can reconcile won't sound bigoted.

  •  As I have said now for three days, the (0+ / 0-)

    "tightening" is among undecideds who are either Reps or where Rep-leaning Indies.  I think McCain has just hit his ceiling having gotten all the remaining pool of low hanging undecideds that were still out there.  I fully expect the remaining undecideds to start to break in the next week and the majority of them to go to Obama.  I will reiterate the prediction I made three weeks ago, a final pop vote of 52 (maybe even 53) for Obama to McCain's 47 (maybe even 46), which should translate into Obama getting over 350 electoral votes (and if his ground game is as good as it appears he will probably get over 375 electoral votes).  But as Obama said the other day we need to race through the finish line, no letting up to victory.

  •  I'm curious if the screens take into account... (0+ / 0-)

    People who have already voted?  Could it be that R2K is only taking people who have not voted yet?

    America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this. -- Barack Obama, the next President of our United States.

    by BasharH on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 09:26:47 AM PDT

  •  Gallup RV O+10! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Good Hope Road

    Today's tracking poll: O is +10

  •  Gallup: Obama 52 McCain 42 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Good Hope Road

    "We don't throw the first punch, but we'll throw the last." Barack Obama, October 6, 2008

    by jessica69 on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 10:11:10 AM PDT

  •  Just look at the electoral map. (0+ / 0-)

    When you've been riding a 10+ point lead in national polling, seeing a poll or two that shows McCain within a few points can be worrisome.

    It shouldn't be.

    Go to CNN's electoral vote calculator, play around with it a bit, and you'll see that it's going to be virtually impossible for McCain to pull out a victory.  Obama needs the Kerry states -- which he'll get -- and Iowa and New Mexico -- which he'll get.  After that, he needs just ONE more swing state, and it's in the bag.  That means he's got plenty of possible roads to 270.  Many Obama win scenarios do NOT include Florida, Ohio, or Virginia.  It'd be nice to win those, and I think he certainly will, but he doesn't HAVE to.

    Now look at how bleak the electoral situation is for McCain.  Hell, he has to win nearly ALL off the states that are currently classified as swing states.  He HAS to win Florida, he HAS to win Ohio, he HAS to win Virginia, and even with all of those, it's still not enough.

    Am I getting complacent?  No.  But I do look forward to seeing President Obama absolutely dominate the electoral map come November 4.

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