ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: AYERS, ACORN AND PALIN
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Monday, Oct. 20, 2008
More Challenges for McCain
From Ayers to the Palin Pick
More challenges for John McCain: Likely voters overwhelmingly reject his effort to
make an issue of Barack Obama’s association with 1960’s radical William Ayers. Fallout
continues from McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin for vice president, with 52 percent saying it
weakens their confidence in his judgment. And on optimism, it’s Obama by 2-1.
Skepticism about the Ayers issue was one of the factors cited by Colin Powell in his
endorsement of Obama yesterday, and in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll
likely voters broadly agree: Sixty percent say Obama’s relationship with Ayers is not a
legitimate issue in the presidential campaign; 37 percent say it is.
There’s less of a split, though, on the Obama campaign’s association with the community
group ACORN; 49 percent say it’s not a legitimate issue, 40 percent say it is, with more,
11 percent, unready to express an opinion on the subject. McCain’s accused ACORN of
voter registration fraud; the group blames some of its canvassers for filling out faked
forms, and says it itself has notified the authorities of such cases.
On the vice presidential candidates, 52 percent of likely voters say McCain's pick of Palin
has made them less confident in the kind of decisions he'd make as president; that's up 13
points since just after the selection, as doubts about Palin's qualifications (also voiced by
Powell on Sunday) have grown. Just 38 percent say it makes them more confident in
McCain's judgment, down 12 points.
ABC News/Washington Post polls
Those numbers are more than reversed on Obama's pick of Joe Biden: Fifty-six percent
of likely voters say it makes them more confident in Obama's decision-making, 31
percent less so.
Optimism, meanwhile, is a strong point of differentiation between the two candidates.
Likely voters by 62 percent to 30 percent see Obama as more optimistic than McCain –
all else equal, an attractive quality in a candidate, as Ronald Reagan demonstrated. And
in a similar attribute, voters by a 17-point margin, 54-37 percent, see Obama has having
the better personality and temperament for office.
INDIES – On all these, the views of swing-voting independents are critical. They see
Obama as more optimistic by 57-31 percent and as better-suited temperamentally by 52-
36 percent. The Palin pick makes them less rather than more confident in McCain’s
judgment by 51-39 percent, while the Biden selection makes them more rather than less
confident in Obama by 50-33 percent.
3
Independents by 60-37 percent say Ayers is not a legitimate issue; on ACORN they
divide more narrowly, 47-42 percent.
OTHERS – There are other differences among groups. Views of the Palin selection,
naturally, are highly partisan. But majorities of moderates (62 percent), young adults (59
percent) and women (56 percent) all say it makes them less confident in McCain’s
judgment. (More women than men say so.) So do near majorities, 48 percent, of white
women and married women alike.
The pick plays better in the GOP base: Seventy percent of Republicans, 68 percent of
evangelical white Protestants and 67 percent of conservatives say the selection of Palin
makes them more confident in McCain’s decision-making.
On Ayers, similarly, 62 percent of conservatives and 67 percent of Republicans say it’s a
legitimate issue. Just 29 percent of moderates, 12 percent of liberals and 10 percent of
Democrats agree.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone
Oct. 16-18, 2008, among a random national sample of 995 likely voters, including
landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a 3-point error margin for the full
sample. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
Analysis by Gary Langer.
For details on ABC News polls including full questionnaires, methodology and sampling
error information, see http://abcnews.com/...
Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934.
Full results follow (*= less than 0.5 percent).
1-6 held for release.
- (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think
[ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?
d. is more optimistic
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/18/08 LV 62 30 4 2 2
8/22/08 LV 65 27 4 1 2
h. has a better personality and temperament to be president
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/18/08 LV 54 37 6 2 1
9/29/08 LV 57 37 2 2 1
9/7/08 RV 57 35 3 2 3
5/11/08 RV 55 34 4 3 4
3/2/08 RV 59 29 2 4 7
8-10 held for release.
4
11 previously released.
- (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of your vote preference, does Obama’s
choice of Biden as his running mate make you more confident or less confident
in the kind of decisions Obama would make as president?
More Less No No
confident confident effect (vol.) opinion
10/18/08 LV 56 31 11 3
9/7/08 LV 55 29 12 5
- (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of your vote preference, does McCain’s
choice of Palin as his running mate make you more confident or less confident
in the kind of decisions McCain would make as president?
More Less No No
confident confident effect (vol.) opinion
10/18/08 LV 38 52 8 2
9/7/08 LV 50 39 6 4
9/4/08 RV 43 39 14 4
- (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Do you think [ITEM] is or is not a legitimate
issue in this year's presidential election?
a. Obama’s past relationship with 1960s radical William Ayres
Legitimate Not a No
issue legitimate issue opinion
10/18/08 LV 37 60 3
b. The Obama campaign’s association with the community group ACORN
10/18/08 LV 40 49 11
15-17 held for release.
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