As I somewhat expected, we got quite a bit of new polling today. Four national polls are there to compare to our "six pack" of tracking polls, plus our one intrepid quasi-tracking poll from GWU/Battleground. We also have new data from individual contests, a total of 27 new polls already, with more sure to come over the course of the evening.
The polling today seems to affirm the consistency of the race, with some very erratic state polling movement to discuss. All in all, Barack Obama remains in a somewhat enviable position with two weeks to go.
Follow me.
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
There are a quartet of new national polls, and they show an Obama lead ranging from 5-9 points. Leading the way this afternoon is the long awaited new numbers from ABC (who has been teasing this poll out for several days). They show little change from last week, as Barack Obama continues to hold a nine-point lead in their survey (53-44). Meanwhile, the Economist releases their semi-regular poll on the race, giving Obama a six-point edge (48-42). Meanwhile, both CNN and the Democracy Corps peg the race at five points, although there is one key difference--Obama is over 50% in CNN's polling data (51-46), and under 50% in Democracy Corps' numbers (49-44). Lastly, there is no change in the GWU/Battleground Tracking Poll, which stands at four points (49-45).
UPDATE AT 4:06 PM PT: NEW CBS/NYT NUMBERS--OBAMA 54%, MCCAIN 41%. Small caveat--this poll is of a set of likely voters who were called back after being interviewed prior to the first debates.
Meanwhile, the "six pack" of tracking polls is much tougher to discern. There was positive movement in four of the six trackers, but two others (Hotline/Diageo and Rasmussen) actually moved two points in MCCAIN'S direction overnight.
(UPDATE: Apparently, the ABC poll is the first installment of a new tracking poll. I have updated the information below)
We saw sizeable three point jumps in both the Gallup and Zogby tracking overnight, with Gallup actually giving Obama the biggest lead he holds among the trackers (9 points). Meanwhile, both R2000 and IBD/TIPP edged up a point for Obama.
NATIONAL POLLS
CBS/NYT: Obama 54%, McCain 41%
ECONOMIST: Obama 48%, McCain 42%
CNN: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
DEMOCRACY CORPS: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
GWU/BATTLEGROUND: Obama 49%, McCain 45%
DAILY TRACKING POLLS
GALLUP: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
ABC: Obama 53%, McCain 44%
RESEARCH 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
ZOGBY: Obama 50%, McCain 44%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47%, McCain 41%
HOTLINE/DIAGEO: Obama 47%, McCain 42%
RASMUSSEN: Obama 50%, McCain 46%
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLS
Today is a cherry-pickers dream in the state polls. McCain fan? Cite the Rasmussen poll in Ohio. Obama fan? Cite the Suffolk University poll in Ohio. If you are discussing Missouri, cite the OPPOSITE poll.
Some consistent data points, some of the once competitive blue states (WI, PA, MN) are tightening slightly, but still marginally comfortable for Obama. Meanwhile, Virginia and Colorado still look very good for the Democrats, as does North Carolina.
Tracking momentum as we have done (comparing these polls to the Pollster.com trend composite), we see Obama beating the spread in six states, while McCain is beating the spread in six states. Worth noting, however, it says something about the strength of the Obama-Biden ticket right now that a five-point lead in Colorado, a ten-point lead in Pennsylvania, and an (average) eight-point lead in Virginia are not enough for Obama to beat the spreads there right now. Extraordinary.
COLORADO--Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, Others 0% (McCain)
FLORIDA--Rasmussen: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, Others 1% (McCain)
GEORGIA--G.Q.R. (D): McCain 46%, Obama 44%, Others 4% (Obama)
MINNESOTA--SurveyUSA: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, Others 4% (McCain)
MISSOURI #1--Suffolk University: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, Others 1% (Obama)
MISSOURI #2--Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, Others 4%
NEW HAMPSHIRE--Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA #1--PPP: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, Others 2% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA #2--Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 48%, Others 0%
OHIO #1--Suffolk University: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, Others 2% (Obama)
OHIO #2--Rasmussen: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, Others 1%
OREGON--Grove (D): Obama 52%, McCain 39%, Others 2% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Muhlenberg: Obama 53%, McCain 41%, Others 2% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--Susquehanna: Obama 48%, McCain 40%, Others 3%
VIRGINIA #1--Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 44% (McCain)
VIRGINIA #2--SurveyUSA: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, Others 2%
WISCONSIN--SurveyUSA: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, Others 3% (McCain)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
All in all, a pretty quiet day of polling at the downballot level. Ten polls, including a handful of internal polls, grab our attention today. Probably the biggest news is yet another poll which shows Minnesota's Senate race to be a pure toss-up. Watch Dean Barkley here. His support has not risen much in the past few surveys, but this is just about where Jesse Ventura was with two weeks to go in 1998. Furthermore, look no further than the NY-26 Democratic Primary to see the benefit accrued by a third person when the two leading candidates beat the snot out of one another.
On the internal polling front, we finally see a poll out of NJ-03 with Democrat John Adler in the lead, plus a Democratic poll for an activist group has IL-11 as a wipeout Democratic pickup.
CT-04--U. of Connecticut: Jim Himes (D) 45%, Rep. Chris Shays (R) 45%
GA-SEN--G.Q.R. (D): Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 48%, Jim Martin (D) 44%
IL-10--Bennett Pitts (D): Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 47%, Dan Seals (D) 41%
IL-11--Bennett Pitts (D): Debbie Halvorson (D) 50%, Marty Ozinga (R) 29%
MN-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 41%, Al Franken (D) 39%, Dean Barkley (I) 18%
NC-SEN--PPP: Kay Hagan (D) 49%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 42%
NJ-03--Grove (D): John Adler (D) 43%, Chris Myers (R) 35%
OR-SEN--Grove (D): Jeff Merkley (D) 41%, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 36%
VA-SEN #1--Rasmussen: Mark Warner (D) 61%, Jim Gilmore (R) 36%
VA-SEN #2--SurveyUSA: Mark Warner (D) 60%, Jim Gilmore (R) 36%
Tomorrow, we will see if there is any Powell bounce in the tracking polls, plus NBC is way overdue for a poll of their own. Again, with just two weeks to go, I expect the data to flow very heavily over the next fourteen days.
Happy Monday, all.