Early voting in Florida is off to a big start, and Democrats have the early lead. Of the 153,262 Floridians who voted Monday, 56% were Democrats, compared to 28% Republican.
. Like many others, I had to stand in line to vote Monday - 45 minutes in my case. The lines gave folks a chance to chat, and the mood seemed light. The three people in front and the three behind me were all for Obama, which made me feel pretty good about being there instead of at the Obama rally I chose to miss in order to vote on the first day.
I live in the key Hillsborough-Pinellas County Tampa-Bay area, which, according to Al Austin, a top Republican fundraiser in Tampa, is
"The anchor of the I-4 corridor, and you don't win Florida unless you win Tampa Bay."
A Politico/Insider Advantage poll released last week showed Obama leading by six points in Hillsborough County, which President Bush carried by 5 percentage points in 2004.
A high turnout here bodes well for the Dems, since the registration breakdown in Hillsborough County is 43% Democrat vs. 33% Republican. By Tuesday night, almost 2% of the total of 703,000 registered voters here had cast their ballots. Next door in Pinellas County, where 644,226 voters are registered, a slightly lighter turnout (three-quarters of a percent of registered voters) was attributed to the reduction in available polling places – just three in the entire county compared to almost a dozen in the last election.
Obama’s steady hand during the financial crisis has definitely helped win Florida voters over. The state has been in a confirmed recession since March, and 61% of voters say the economy is their top issue.
The lopsided early voting figures completely contradict the latest polling data for the state of Florida (Public Policy Polling's Oct.16-19 Robo-Poll of likely voters) that showed Barack Obama leading John McCain by only one percentage point. It could be that the absentee ballots, which are definitely more Republican, will cancel out the early voters. But if the turnout continues as it has (and all signs show it will), Obama may just complete this state’s color change from rusty old red to beautiful bright blue by Nov. 4th.