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Taking a look at today's RCP electoral map one sees that Ohio has gone into the "Leans Obama" category, and RCP has granted Obama  303 EVs without tossups added.

Just two days after McCain's "going all in in Pennsylvania" went into effect, the wind has left the sails of his Ohio efforts.

I expected this. McCain has very little mojo at this point. So his latest Mavericky move has failed and failed quickly. He doesn't have time to reallocate resources to save Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and simultaneously get a mystical win in Pennsylvania.

I think we can give SOC Jennifer Brunner some credit for this current state of affairs. McCain needed just the right amount of disenfranchisement in Ohio to make theft of Ohio's EVs believable. And to date his efforts have been thwarted by Brunner.

Now I think the polls and the "Republicans jumping ship" are going to get very ugly.

By the time Obama gets back from Hawaii, Chuck Todd will be giving the McCain campaign its last rites on primetime (sometime Monday evening)

Below are the Ohio poll #'s for the past month.

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/22 -- -- 49.7 43.7 Obama +6.0

Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 564 LV 4.2 53 41 Obama +12

CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 737 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 4.0 47 49 McCain +2

Quinnipiac 10/16 - 10/21 1360 LV 2.7 52 38 Obama +14

Suffolk 10/17 - 10/19 600 LV 4.0 51 42 Obama +9

NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/16 - 10/17 625 LV 4.0 45 46 McCain +1

Rasmussen 10/14 - 10/14 700 LV 4.0 49 49 Tie

SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/13 575 LV 4.2 50 45 Obama +5

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 3.0 49 47 Obama +2

InAdv/PollPosition 10/09 - 10/09 509 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5

Marist 10/05 - 10/08 771 LV 3.5 49 45 Obama +4

Ohio Newspaper Poll 10/04 - 10/08 876 LV 3.0 46 48 McCain +2

Strategic Vision (R) 10/06 - 10/08 1200 LV 3.0 48 46 Obama +2

ARG 10/04 - 10/07 600 LV 4.0 48 45 Obama +3

CNN/Time 10/03 - 10/06 749 LV 3.5 50 47 Obama +3

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 3.0 47 48 McCain +1

PPP (D) 10/04 - 10/05 1239 LV 2.8 49 43 Obama +6

ABC News/Wash Post 10/03 - 10/05 772 LV 3.5 51 45 Obama +6

Columbus Dispatch* 09/24 - 10/03 2262 LV 2.0 49 42 Obama +7

Democracy Corps (D) 09/29 - 10/01 600 LV -- 49 43 Obama +6

InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2

SurveyUSA 09/28 - 09/29 693 LV 3.8 48 49 McCain +1

Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 825 LV 3.4 50 42 Obama +8

FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 4.5 47 48 McCain +1

Rasmussen 09/24 - 09/24 700 LV 4.0 46 47 McCain +1

Originally posted to rhodeislanddemocrat on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:17 PM PDT.

Tags

Poll

Ohio going blue this week

43%30 votes
40%28 votes
15%11 votes

| 69 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

    •  Tipped for Chrissie Hynde (6+ / 0-)

      "Any dictator would admire the uniformity and obedience of the U.S. media." -- Noam Chomsky

      by ratmach on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:21:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sadly, Rush Limbaugh is still using this song... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ratmach

        "If the good Lord had intended for us to walk, He wouldn't have invented roller skates." - Willy Wonka

        by RethinkEverything on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:24:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  of course Chrissie's "way to go" was sarcastic (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        beltane

        "Any dictator would admire the uniformity and obedience of the U.S. media." -- Noam Chomsky

        by ratmach on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:26:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No way for her (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rhodeislanddemocrat

        Bitch has done nothing but dis Ohio. She did come home and open a vegetarian restaurant in Akron which I should try but she is such a surly bitch.

        Ohio has always been in the Obama camp. Obama was ALWAYS winning here, and the reasons why are too deep and too structural for McCain campaign appearances, such as the ones that just landed in my email box, to make any difference. The Republicans here are in disarray following 16 years of robbing the state blind and blatant corruption. The state Democratic party began rebuilding in 2005, with an "88-county" strategy supported and funded by Howard Dean. It has almost 100 times more people on the ground than it did in 2004, when Kerry had to build his own campaign structure because there was nothing here, while the Obama campaign came in and seamlessly blended with pre-existing structure, which included 5,000 trained Neighborhood Leaders. In addition, the ODP now has leapfrogged the pubbies as far as voter ID and contact. Also, we have a Democratic secretary of state (Jennifer) committed to fair, free and open elections; that alone probably accounts for a couple of hundred thousand additional votes. Finally, the economy here is so bad that voters HAVE started voting their self-interest instead of fringe issues. We saw that in the 2006 gubernatorial race where Democrat Ted Strickland focused totally on jobs, education and health care and Republican Ken Blackwell got all unfocused once he realized people weren't all THAT terrified of gays.

        The state probably hinges on my district, Ohio's 11. We went 70% for Kerry, we'll go 80% or more for Obama. If we turn out, Obama wins no matter what happens elsewhere. And this district is energized like nothing I've ever seen. Every other person I talk to is volunteering. I went out last night to deliver signs for my county commissioner candidate and every single street is a forest of Obama signs. I almost chuckled whenever I saw a lonely little McCain/Palin sign.

        There's too much that has shifted in Ohio for McCain and Palin to come in here and smear Obama and have it have any resonance.

        We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14: http://www.oneill08.com/

        by anastasia p on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:53:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Tidal wave (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CC Music Factory, ratmach

    I believe alot of what we are seeing is the media narrative is in full effect now, Palin was a bad choice, she is a fake.  McCain makes bad judgements and puts corporate interests first.

    Indeed, the whole Joe the Plumber episode seems to have highlighted Obama's better tax plan, more than any Obama ad ever achieved.

    As such, I believe the tide is against McCain and he is seeing the resulting tsunami breaking shore state to state.  Trickle down failed America.  Thats the story right there.

    Government for the people, by the people

    by axel000 on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:22:33 PM PDT

    •  "Joe the Plumber" has helped Obama big time (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      axel000

      As you said, it's only served to hilite how much better Obama's tax plan is than McCain. Plus, if you watch the whole original encounter, it's impossible to not be impressed by how Obama deals with things... even when dealing with someone who's obviously at least a little hostile. But this whole thing has also drawn attention to the fact that McCain's campaign (like most campaigns of Repugs) is nothing but stupid, corny slogans, chants, ridiculous kindergarten-level stuff.

      "Any Joe the Plumbers out there? I see Mary the Waitress. Ah, and there's Bob the Baker... and there, there's Greg the Gardener! You betcha!"

      "Any dictator would admire the uniformity and obedience of the U.S. media." -- Noam Chomsky

      by ratmach on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:33:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  "Oh why oh why oh why oh did I ever leave (0+ / 0-)

    Ohio?" sings John McCain today

  •  If Ohio goes for Obama (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itsmitch, cjallen, RethinkEverything

    I promise to root for Ohio State the rest of the season except when they play Illinois.

  •  I really think Joe the Plumber backlash (5+ / 0-)

    ended up flushing McCain's hopes in Ohio...

    "If the good Lord had intended for us to walk, He wouldn't have invented roller skates." - Willy Wonka

    by RethinkEverything on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:26:05 PM PDT

  •  Ohio has been going back and forth... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    yellowdog

    ...since the general started, and it's still anybody's state.

    I'm more concerned about the Kerry states plus IA, NM, and CO scenario. That is, and always has been, the best path to the White House.

    Ron Fournier is on the wreck list.

    by beatpanda on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:26:08 PM PDT

    •  I'm more worried about (0+ / 0-)

      the MSM spinning 375 EVs for Obama as a "close race"

      "If the good Lord had intended for us to walk, He wouldn't have invented roller skates." - Willy Wonka

      by RethinkEverything on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:27:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Colorodo is iffy d/t Repub. Sec of State (0+ / 0-)

      and strong Fundie base.

      "Don't tell me. I'll tell you. Me and my people are just about through." Nina Simone

      by rhodeislanddemocrat on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:27:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No, it hasn't and it isn't (0+ / 0-)

      POLLS have been going back and forth, but on the ground it's always been solidly for Obama. It's not "anybody's" state; it's Obama's and all us Democrats who have worked so hard for this for three long years, building the Democratic party, laying the groundwork, recruiting and training volunteers, identifying voters. I'm totally committed to Obama carrying Ohio and so are thousands like me.

      We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14: http://www.oneill08.com/

      by anastasia p on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 02:05:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I keep telling "youse" guys Ohio will deliver! (6+ / 0-)

    We are working hard here in south-central Ohio and its working. The plan was just to get 3% more than Kerry in the rural areas. We will win the cities, but Kerry lost by 118,000 votes. If we could just pick up that extra 3%....But a funny thing happened! We are not covering, WE ARE WINNING. The local Repub Rag endorsed Obama! The polls they run are 60/40 for Obama, signs everywhere, people talking, it looks good for Obama

  •  I hope I am wrong about this ... (0+ / 0-)

    ... but in the end I expect Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Florida, and North Carolina to stay in the Rethuglican column this year. FWIW, I believe Obama will win a narrower victory with Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and (possibly) Nevada.

    Then again, nothing would make me happier than for Obama to win ALL of those states listed. I am hoping for an Electoral College blowout that hits the GOP so hard that their people won't even wake up for a week. After years of taking their abuse, it's time for some payback (at least figuratively speaking). I'm sure Obama would be more presidential and statesmanlike in his approach, though.

    •  I don't expect that (0+ / 0-)

      Don't insult our three years of hard work herre in ohio.

      We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14: http://www.oneill08.com/

      by anastasia p on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 02:16:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No insult intended at all ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... I think the Democratic campaign operation and volunteers are doing a great job. It's just that I lived in Ohio for 10 years and remember it as a state with a distinctly split personality. NE Ohio, for example, seemed quite progressive to me. But I also worked in parts of the Buckeye State that made Alabama seem enlightened ... and unfortunately those are the areas that seemed to turn out more in 2000 and 2004.

        However, I will grant you that Bush's win there in 2004 remains highly suspicious. I still wonder just how much monkey business went on with the vote counting back when the Rethuglicans held the offices of governor and secretary of state.

  •  Finish The Job. (0+ / 0-)

    Leave nothing to chance.  This is for all the marbles.

    Let's finish the job.

  •  Yup (2+ / 0-)

    screw Joe the Fake Plumber
    Cheers for Jennifer the Secretary of State

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