A new site to aggregate polls, using recursive Bayesian filters, and a round-up of recent polls and their effect on the Senate, Presidential, and Governor races. Along with an interactive web applet.
http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/
*********Cross Posted at StochasticDemocracy**********
We'll start with the National Tracking Polls today:
CI- The 95% confidence intervals for what public opinion is today, based on the sampling error in the poll aggregate
FI- The 95% prediction intervals for what the outcome will be in November, based on estimation of variance when treating polls as observations of a random walk(under a hidden Markov Bayesian framework).
The same graph as the first, but only since the conventions
According to my filter, Obama is currently 7 points ahead. While there was a small dip in support over the weekend, there has been a statistically significant increase since then.
As far as the electoral college goes, I've incorporated the polls of the last week into the model. Consequentially, the Delta tabs on the applet at the top of the site show the change in the electoral map since then.
A cartogram, where state's are sized proportionally to their electoral votes. Shaded according to their win probabilities
The new swing states*, in order from most to least Obama friendly, are Missouri(76%) ,Ohio(67%),Florida(60%), North Dakota(53%), and Indiana(20%)
After this, Obama's next best state is West Virginia (11%). [Other state's probabilities can be seen on the applet]
Polls have tightened in Ohio and Florida, but with so little time before the elections, it doesn't look like it will be enough for McCain to have a realistic path to victory.
So onto the Senate:
Probability of maintaining control of the Senate(>=50): >99.99%
Probability of improving our position in the Senate(>51): >99.99%
Probability of a Filibuster-Proof Majority(>=60): 29.3%
Probability of a Lieberman-Free Filibuster-Proof Majority(>=61): 8.5%
The competitive seats** are, from most to least Obama Friendly:
North Carolina(82%) - Hagan(D) vs Dole
Oregon (76%) - Merkley(D) vs Smith
Minnesota(71%) - Franken(D) vs Coleman
Alaska (64%) - Begich(D) vs Stevens
Georgia (34%) - Martin(D) vs Chambliss
Kentucky (30%) - Lunsford(D) vs McConnell
Mississippi (20%) - Musgrove(D) vs Wicker
Finally, Governor races:
There are only two remotely competitive races this year, and Democrats are now favored in both of them
North Carolina (67%) - Perdue(D) vs McCrory
Washington (84%) - Gregoire(D) vs Rossi
Check back soon for news on the House...
*defined as states where the probability of an Democratic Victory is between 20% and 80%.
**defined as states where probability of a Democratic Victory is between 10% and 90%
*********Cross Posted at StochasticDemocracy**********