I love the smell of a positive outlier in the morning. Although Obama may be ahead in Ohio, it's very hard to believe he's ahead by 14. He's up six from the last poll three weeks ago. As for Florida, it's good to see a poll showing Obama with a lead there, although Obama's lead has shrunk by 3 since the poll three weeks ago. Since the last couple have either showed it tied or McCain with a slight lead. The PA poll shows the difficulty with McCain's strategy. SE PA is where the voting population is increasing in the state, and McCain is not doing well there.
From October 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,433 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
1,360 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent;
1,425 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
With 12 days to go, Sen. McCain is narrowing the gap in Florida, but fading in Ohio and barely denting Sen. Obama's double-digit lead in Pennsylvania.
No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls show:
Florida: Obama up 49 - 44 percent, compared to 51 - 43 percent October 1;
Ohio: Obama up 52 - 38 percent, widening an October 1 lead of 50 - 42 percent; Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 40 percent, compared to 54 - 39 percent last time.
. . . .
"Sen. Obama is no longer the candidate of the young, the well-educated and minorities. He is now virtually the candidate of the 'all.' He is winning among all age groups in all three states. He wins women by more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania and is competitive among men in all three states. Whether voters went to college or not, they are voting for him.
"Perhaps the most remarkable development is that Obama is doing significantly better among white, born again evangelicals in Ohio and Pennsylvania than did Democratic nominee John Kerry four years ago. He also is winning Roman Catholics in those states, historically the key swing voter group in the electorate and synonymous here with the blue-collar vote.
"In Florida, Obama's margin over McCain is due mostly from stronger support from Hispanics than Kerry received."
. . . .
"Sen. Obama leads comfortably in Pennsylvania, mostly because he has pulled ahead in the four key suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia where Keystone State races are decided," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Obama is leading among whites and blue collar workers, but white men and 15 percent of Sen. Hillary Clinton's primary supporters are clinging to Sen. McCain, probably not enough to change the tide in the closing days of the campaign," Richards added.