Not that we should be surprised, but the AP poll included double the number of born agains and evangelicals as likelies to come up with their 44/43 split for Obama.
As you guys might have seen. Our gal Sprinkles came out with a perplexing poll which actually showed Obama with a 47 to 37 edge amongst a sample of 1100 respondents. 800 "likely voters" showed only a 44 ot 43 edge for Obama, which was the most pro McCain numbers we've seen outside of a Faux News call-in poll.
The numbers looked strange to me, since to get to 47 to 37 for the overall, the additional 301 voters (1101 - 800) would have had to have gone 55% to 21% more or less...not really a possiblity in a random poll or a normal selection of 'Likely Voters" (a perfectly legitimate process if done correctly). Sure enough, 45% of the total poll and 44% of the 'likely' voters self identified as 'born again or evangelical' vs. 23% who identified themselves this way in 2004. Nearly DOUBLE the amount of religious conservatives than the population as a whole.
Note the Born again data is on page 24, not page 20.
Amongst all the areas where Sprinkles found McCain closing the gap...she some how missed some areas.
McCain's attacks on Obama Fair? 42% yes, 54% no.
Obama's attacks on McCain Fair? 59% yes, 35% no.
Palin's attacks on Obama Fair? 39% yes, 54% no.
Biden's attacks on McCain Fair? 59% yes, 35% no.
All of these trending OUR way...but Sprinkles missed that.
**Update GW Battlegorund also shows this kind of a likely voter split.
GW poll also shows 45% born again evangelical gw battleground
They also show essentially 48% to 44% dem to GOP voting record but 59% self identified conservatives to 36% self identified liberals.
So voter screen problems again. HT to KarmaCop for gtting this as I was researching it!