As many of us here in non-battleground states like Illinois, I've been following the early voting numbers from states like North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio and Florida as I'm sure others have as well. We've seen the large and consistent African-American vote that keeps coming in from North Carolina and Georgia and the 2-1, 3-1 Democratic turnout in some areas. Well, I've been wondering if this is a portent to a potential Obama landslide. I've looked at some of the preliminary numbers out of Florida. Follow me below the fold for the results.
First off, instead of looking at every county in Florida, I decided to limit it to counties that had over 100,000 votes in the 2004 election. I did this because the largest counties would obviously have the largest effect on the outcome of the results along with giving us a glimpse of how both Democratic and Republican areas are performing. They represented each of the 3 main regions of Florida (northern, central and southern) and included both Republican and Democratic strongholds in Florida. Here is the list of the counties by region.
North
Alachua (Gainesville - University of Florida)
Duval (Jacksonville)
Escambia (Pensacola)
Leon (Tallahassee - Florida State University and state capital)
Marion (Ocala)
Central
Brevard (Melbourne)
Hillsborough (Tampa)
Lake (Orlando area)
Orange (Orlando)
Osceola (Kissimmee)
Pasco (Suburban Tampa)
Pinellas (Clearwater - St. Pete)
Polk (Lakeland, Winter Haven)
Sarasota (Sarasota)
Seminole (Orlando area)
Volusia (Daytona Beach)
South
Broward (Ft. Lauderdale)
Collier (Naples)
Lee (Fort Myers)
Miami-Dade (Miami)
Palm Beach (West Palm Beach)
In 2004, Alachua and Leon counties in the North went solidly for Kerry along with Broward, Palm Beach and Dade county in the south. The others were solidly for Bush with the exceptions of some of the central counties such as Pinellas, Orange and Volusia counties which were roughly 50-50.
Here are the breakdowns of the 2004 vote and the latest(August 2008)party voter registrations by county.
Alachua: 56-43 Kerry - registrations nearly 2-1 Democratic
Duval: 58-42 Bush - registrations 4-3 Democratic
Escambia: 65-34 Bush - registrations 8-7 Republican
Leon: 62-37 Kerry - registrations 2-1 Democratic
Marion: 58-41 Bush - registrations 4-3 Republican
Brevard: 58-42 Bush - registrations slightly more Republicans
Hillsborough: 53-46 Bush - registrations slightly more Democrats
Lake: 60-39 Bush - registrations 4-3 Republican
Orange: 50-50 Kerry - registrations 4-3 Democratic
Osceola: 52-47 Bush - registrations 3-2 Democratic
Pasco: 54-44 Bush - registration slightly more Republican
Pinellas: 50-50 Bush - registrations slightly more Democratic
Polk: 59-41 Bush - registrations slightly more Democratic
Sarasota: 54-45 Bush - registrations 3-2 Republican
Seminole: 58-41 Bush - registrations 5-4 Republican
Volusia: 50-49 Kerry - registrations 6-5 Democratic
Broward: 64-34 Kerry - registrations 2-1 Democratic
Collier: 65-34 Bush - registrations 2-1 Republican
Lee: 59-40 Bush - registrations 5-3 Republican
Miami-Dade: 54-46 Kerry - registrations 3-2 Democratic
Palm Beach: 61-39 Kerry - registrations 3-2 Democratic
Now let's look at the early voting numbers this year so far (as of end of day Wednesday) for these counties.
Counties | Dem Vote | % of Vote | Rep Vote | % of Vote | Other Vote | % of Vote |
Alachua | 6,672 | 66.1% | 1,969 | 19.5% | 1,456 | 14.4% |
Duval | 19,841 | 59.1% | 9,816 | 29.3% | 3,893 | 11.6% |
Escambia | 5,131 | 54.9% | 3,249 | 34.8% | 961 | 10.3% |
Leon | 5,950 | 70.2% | 1,580 | 18.7% | 944 | 11.1% |
Marion | 4,642 | 50.7% | 3,059 | 33.4% | 1,463 | 15.9% |
Brevard | 5,155 | 53% | 3,231 | 33.2% | 1,347 | 13.8% |
Hillsborough | 15,806 | 60.9% | 6,332 | 24.4% | 3,838 | 14.8% |
Lake | 5,484 | 43.8% | 5,043 | 40.3% | 1,998 | 15.6% |
Orange | 15,065 | 62.3% | 5,059 | 20.9% | 4,061 | 16.9% |
Osceola | 4,167 | 58.8% | 1,658 | 23.4% | 1,263 | 17.8% |
Pasco | 6,795 | 48.5% | 4,714 | 33.6% | 2,504 | 17.9% |
Pinellas | 4,805 | 58% | 1,983 | 23.9% | 1,501 | 18.1% |
Polk | 6,693 | 59.5% | 2,960 | 26.3% | 1,591 | 14.2% |
Sarasota | 6,332 | 44.1% | 5,499 | 38.3% | 2,543 | 17.7% |
Seminole | 7,140 | 48.6% | 5,029 | 34.2% | 2,522 | 17.2% |
Volusia | 7,316 | 56.2% | 3,412 | 26.2% | 2,301 | 17.7% |
Broward | 25,913 | 70.7% | 4,945 | 13.5% | 5,794 | 15.8% |
Collier | 3,890 | 35.6% | 4,975 | 45.6% | 2,056 | 18.8% |
Lee | 5,722 | 45% | 4,825 | 37.9% | 2,184 | 17.1% |
Miami-Dade | 23,865 | 57.7% | 10,453 | 25.3% | 6,959 | 16.8% |
Palm Beach | 16,173 | 66.4% | 4,037 | 16.6% | 4,136 | 17.0% |
Every county except Collier has had more Democrats early voting and even there the split is nowhere near the 2-1 Republican advantage in registrations. The other strong Bush counties of Escambia, Marion, Brevard, Lake, Polk, Seminole and Lee have all had more Democratic early voters with Polk County seeing a 2-1 Democratic advantage. Now, it's known that many registered Democrats in the panhandle region of Florida end up voting Republican in federal races, but even if it's as high as 20% of Democrats voting for McCain there, the vote count is a wash so far.
As for the Democratic strongholds of Alachua and Leon in the north and Palm Beach, Broward and Dade in the south, the numbers jump out at you. Alachua at over 3-1 Democratic early vote, Leon at almost 4-1, Palm Beach at 4-1, Broward at over 5-1 and Dade at 2-1 means that Obama is probably racking up huge leads in the early voting.
So, what about the all important I-4 corridor in central Florida? It is the swing area of Florida. What do those numbers look like? Well, the Tampa, St. Pete area with Pinellas and Hillsborough counties are running over 2-1 Democratic. Orlando in Orange County is running over 3-1 Democratic. The other central counties, while not running overwhelmingly Democratric, are seeing roughly 5-3 Democratic margins.
While this doesn't necessarily mean we are looking at a landslide in Florida, these early voting numbers have to make the Obama campaign happy. If he is winning in central Florida, blowing McCain out in south Florida and holding his own in areas like Pensacola and the Gulf Coast in early voting, then we may be looking at a blue Florida early in the evening of November 4th.
I'll try and update the numbers from yesterday later today to see if trends are changing much in any direction. Another note: Get out there and work the precincts! Early votes are great, but they don't win the election for you alone.
UPDATE: Here are some useful links.
Early voting statistics nationwide.
http://elections.gmu.edu/...
Florida Voter Registration Statistics as of August 2008 by County
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/...
Florida 2004 Election Results by County
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Florida early voting statistics
https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/...
UPDATE 2: Wow! Thanks for the Recs! First time on the Recommended Diaries. Let's hope this is a portent to a joyous November 4th!