Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading McCain 52-40. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.
Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) wrote up a tracking poll primer covering the eight available trackers. It includes sample size, time of publication and quirks, as well as Nate's opinion of the trackers. Recommended.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Today
Research 2000: 52 (51) 40 (41) 3 LV
Reuters/Zogby: 51 (52) 41 (40) 2.9 LV
Rasmussen: 52 (52) 45 (45) 2 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 50 (48) 43 (43) 3.4 LV
Battleground: 49 (49) 46 (45) 3.1 LV
Gallup: 50 (50) 42 (43) 2 RV See also the LV I and LV II numbers
IBD/TIPP: 46 (45) 42 (44) 3.3 LV alternate link
Yesterday
ABC/WaPo: 54 (54) 43 (43) 3 LV
Big 10: 52 (46) 43 (45) 3.1 LV
CBS/NY Times: 52 (53) 39 (39) 3 LV
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +12 Tues, +10 Wed and +14 Thurs.
Zogby says
Obama continues to dominate among independent voters – he leads by a 56% to 30% margin over McCain among those voters – and among those who have already cast their ballots. Those who have already voted now comprise more than 10% of the Zogby sample, and Obama holds a 20–point lead in that category. Among those who are new voters – registering in the last 6 months – the Democrat holds a 69% to 26% edge over McCain.
[Added] early voting story from Gallup here:
The R2K numbers on independents:
The increase is in the men (women are steady at +21 Obama):
Here is the pollster.com graph of the trackers from last night:
We've noted the steady race several times. But now Dan Balz has spoken:
Immediately after the debates, some national polls hinted that the race might be tightening, but this week, the weight of evidence is that Obama continues to hold a solid lead nationally and in the states where it counts most.
ABC/WaPo tracker:
In those crucial states decided by five or fewer points in 2004, Obama is up 21 points.
Also from ABC/WaPo:
- 49% say they are at least somewhat uncomfortable about McCain's age, vs 8% uncomfortable about Obama's race
- 52% say McCain would mainly continue in George W. Bush's direction
- 56% think Obama have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president
- Likely voters prefer Obama 56% vs 38% on the economy
Some important questions from the CBS/NY Times poll. About the vice-president (now at a record -25 fav/unfav in the R2K poll):
Ouch. Is McCain's tax rant working?
Ouch, ouch. Make it stop. How did Obama do in the debates? How are McCain's attacks working?
Hmmm... Those questions alone tell you who is winning.
From the Q-poll yesterday, Sarah Palin continues to be a drag on the ticket:
Florida: Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, gets a slightly negative 41 - 43 percent favorability.
Ohio: Palin's favorability is a negative 37 - 41 percent, while Biden gets a 49 - 22 percent favorability.
Pennsylvania: Palin's favorability is a negative 38 - 43 percent, with Biden at 54 - 22 percent.
The Center for Rural Strategies poll is out, with more bad news for McCain:
Center for Rural Strategies
Rural parts of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.
Oct 1-21 (Sep) MoE +/- 3.4
Obama 46 (41)
McCain 45 (51)
A poll of rural voters in battleground states shows that this critical group of voters moved toward Democrat Barack Obama during a three-week period in October.
The Center for Rural Strategies poll, commissioned on behalf of the National Rural Assembly, sampled rural voters in 13 swing states from Oct. 1-21. During these three weeks the poll found that Obama led McCain 46 to 45 percent, which is within the poll's 3.38 percent margin of error.
Democrat analyst and pollster Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research said that the poll shows erosion in Republican support among rural voters and that this is a good sign for Obama.
More, for perspective:
George W. Bush won among rural voters in battleground states by 15 points in 2004, and that margin was critical in his victory in key states such as Ohio.
There is a hint of some rebound for McCain, but:
- More rural voters thought Obama would do a better job handling the economy than McCain (49 percent for Obama vs. 40 percent for McCain).
- More rural voters said McCain would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq (53 percent for McCain vs. 43 percent for Obama
- Voters were evenly split on which candidate would do a better job on taxes (46 percent for Obama vs. 43 percent for McCain) and the nation's financial crisis (46 for Obama vs. 42 percent for McCain).