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The campaigns filed their October 1 to October 15 Federal Election Committee results yesterday.  We've got a real shot at taking two of them, and may be able to pick up a third against the odious right wing troll Scott Garrett.

Here's New Jersey's three top takeaway district results with a brief analysis of each at the end.  

NJ3 -- John Adler (D) and Chris Myers (R)

Adler raised $139,996.28 and has $834,477.68 cash on hand after spending $578,484.62.

Myers raised $149,028.00 and has $217,296.02 cash on hand after spending $219,564.30.

As of October 15, Adler has about $600,000 more to spend in the last three weeks of the election.  That's a big advantage, even with the NRCC running ads on New York radio.  Myers' own party isn't too fond of him and in another slap in the face the employees at Lockheed Martin (he's a VP there) maxed out to Adler.

If I had to handicap these three New Jersey races based on the public polls we've seen and the money race, I have to go with this one as the most likely to flip.

NJ5 -- Dennis Shulman (D) and Scott Garrett (R)

Shulman raised $79,952.13 and has $126,580.91 cash on hand after spending $179,434.31.

Garrett raised $74,756.29 and has $410,984.95 cash on hand after spending $234,548.97.

As of October 15, Garrett has about $220,000 more to spend in the last three weeks of the election, but the filing also notes Shulman raised a little more money leading into the election.  He did the same in the last quarter, too.  I am surprised that Garrett, who people think is in danger, is not raising all that much money compared to other competitive NJ campaigns.

This is still a real long-shot for the Dems, but it is withing striking distance.  Even the national Republicans say that in a wave election -- and national polls are hinting at a wave -- NJ5 could flip.

NJ5 -- Linda Stender (D) and Leonard Lance (R)

Stender raised $152,705.29 and has $304,481.42 cash on hand after spending $350,509.83.

Lance raised $139,240.00 and has $274,817.74 cash on hand after spending $191260.80.

As of October 15, Stender has about $160,000 more to spend in the last three weeks of the election, a lot less than I would have expected.  With her huge fundraising advantage I would have expected her to have a larger cushion.  However, the DCCC is spending for Stender and the NRCC appears to be absent for Lance.  

According to the 48 hour reports (every major contribution has to be reported within 48 hours) Stender raised $41,000 between 10/16 and 10/21, and Lance raised $44,000 between 10/16 and 10/23 so the cash coming in is pretty even, too.

I put this one a close second to NJ3, and likely to flip. I have been thinking that Stender's campaign has been overly focused on reproductive choice in her ads at the expense of economic and international turmoil, but Lance felt he had to respond this week with a "I'm pro-choice" TV ad and a group of Republican women to defend him.  His polls or anecdotes must suggest it's got traction.

So, in the comments, how are we going to do in these districts?

Oh, and BTW you can donate to these campaigns yourself on the Blue Jersey ACTBLUE page.

Originally posted to huntsu on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:46 AM PDT.


Will New Jersey Democrats Win

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