Skip to main content

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).

Love (R) 47
Bright (D) 45

Democratic Mayor of Montgomery Bobby Bright trails well within the margin of error; he's two points down on Republican Jay Love to fill the open seat of retiring Republican Terry Everett. Bright's internals show the same deadlock (46-45 for Bright), while the DCCC's internals show a significant lead for Bright, 50% to 43%.

Bright is not known as an especially aggressive campaigner, or an aggressive fundraiser. So this one may come down to third-party organizations - the DCCC, NRCC, Freedom's Watch - and to field operations.

The Republicans have held this one since 1964 - it's an R+13 seat, where former Rep. Terry Everett routinely raced up big margins. Bright is an undeniably conservative Democrat, and would be one of the most conservative in the House.

Still, it would be a tremendous coup to turn this part of the House map blue:

On the web:
Bobby Bright for U.S. Congress

             AL-2 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Third Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 21 and October 23, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  192 (48%)
Women                208 (52%)

Democrats            124 (31%)
Republicans          192 (48%)
Independents/Other    84 (21%)

18-29                 68 (17%)
30-44                124 (31%)
45-59                128 (32%)
60+                   80 (20%)

White                320 (80%)
Black                 68 (17%)
Other                 12 (3%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jay Love? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 15%         33%         23%         13%         16%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 48%         36%         16%

MEN                 51%         34%         15%
WOMEN               45%         38%         17%

DEMOCRATS           26%         62%         12%
REPUBLICANS         65%         17%         18%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         38%         18%

18-29               45%         39%         16%
30-44               48%         36%         16%
45-59               49%         35%         16%
60+                 51%         34%         15%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bobby Bright? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         35%         26%          9%         19%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 46%         35%         19%

MEN                 43%         39%         18%
WOMEN               49%         31%         20%

DEMOCRATS           67%         12%         21%
REPUBLICANS         32%         52%         16%
INDEPENDENTS        47%         33%         20%

18-29               49%         31%         20%
30-44               46%         36%         18%
45-59               45%         36%         19%
60+                 44%         37%         19%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Bobby Bright the Democrat or Jay Love the Republican?

                   LOVE        BRIGHT      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 47%         45%          8%

MEN                 51%         44%          5%
WOMEN               43%         46%         11%

DEMOCRATS            7%         89%          4%
REPUBLICANS         74%         14%         12%
OTHER               45%         50%          5%

18-29               42%         49%          9%
30-44               47%         45%          8%
45-59               48%         44%          8%
60+                 49%         43%          8%

WHITE               56%         37%          7%
BLACK                5%         83%         12%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 56%         39%          2%          3%

MEN                 59%         37%          2%          2%
WOMEN               53%         41%          2%          4%

DEMOCRATS           11%         84%          2%          3%
REPUBLICANS         88%          7%          2%          3%
OTHER               51%         42%          3%          4%

18-29               51%         43%          2%          4%
30-44               55%         39%          2%          4%
45-59               57%         38%          2%          3%
60+                 61%         36%          1%          2%

WHITE               67%         28%          3%          2%
BLACK                4%         89%         -            7%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 02:50 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  i'd say show bright some love (7+ / 0-)

    but given the name of his opponent, that might get confusing

  •  Go bright! I don't even really know who he (3+ / 0-)

    is, but if someone could point me to a link I would be happy to donate $$$.  :)

  •  Duncan Hunter just stepped in it (0+ / 0-)

    Congressman Duncan Hunter on Hardball explaining why Barack Obama is leading in the polls:

    "He's got good teeth"

  •  Pls see these couple of diaries for background. (4+ / 0-)

    Smith's Bright Endorsement.

    Bobby Bright, AL-02 & Ft. Rucker

    Oh, and note in the second one (re:  Rucker) wherein I mention "a local VIPish friend" -- yep, that was Smith, about 4 or 5 weeks before she endorsed Bright.

    bg
    ___________________

    "We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown

    by BenGoshi on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 02:54:14 PM PDT

    •  Oh, hell. I'm just going to quote extensively... (4+ / 0-)

      .

      to draw a little attention to these diaries (linked above):

      From Diary 2 above:

      "About three (3) weeks ago I was having lunch with a local VIPish friend at a little diner in Geneva County.  Up walks this loud and loutish good ol' boy wantin' to say, 'Hey' to my friend.  He's owns a very, very well-known business in Daleville, home of Fort Rucker.

      "He starts going off on how he's votin' for Jay Love because he 'wuddint never vote for no Dem'crat, who ain't never done nuthin' for Rucker.' . . .

      "After the war, 'Camp Rucker', was de-activated, but under Democratic Congressman Grant, it was re-opened in 1955.  In 1959 it became the first home of Army Aviation training (helicopters), under Democratic Congressman Grant.  In fact, George Grant was Alabama Second's Congressman from 1938 until January 1965.  Let that sink in for a minute.

      In 1964 Judge Bill Dickinson ran for Congress in Alabama's Second Congressional District and won as a Republican; benefiting from Barry Goldwater's (and the GOP's) sweep of the then still very-segregated Alabama and its backlash against LBJ and the (Northern) Democratic Party's support of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which passed the House and Senate earlier that year and was signed into law by President Johnson on July 2. . ."


      From Diary 1 above:

      "Contrary to Alabama GOP's rather slimy accusations, Harri Anne has not been 'bought off' by anybody.  She just thinks Bright is the better person for the job.  Harris' combining Common Sense with Political Courage is something that we in this state have rarely seen in recent years.  I would include Governor Riley's tax reform attempt (notwithstanding it's demise) early in his Administration.  Interesting how here, at a Progressive Blog, the two most noteworthy examples of Doing the Right Thing within the past 10 years come from Republicans.  But, just as noteworthy, these two Republicans, Senator Smith and Governor Riley, receive nothing but excoriation from their Party Elites when they (the Senator and the Governor) put Alabama over Party.  I suppose there should be no surprise there.  

      "Bright is originally from Ozark, Alabama, in Alabama's extreme S.E. corner, 'The Wiregrass.  Jay Love is from Montgomery.  Harri Anne (who's from the Wiregrass) says that if Jay Love wins, knowing that he did it with little-to-no support from the Wiregrass, then that whole section of AL-02 will be necessarily written off by Love.  Bobby Bright will see to it that the Wiregrass is rightfully represented in Congress. . . "

             

      "We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown

      by BenGoshi on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:11:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I've lost count (6+ / 0-)

    it's got to close to 50 seats now that could go Blue

    keyword  could

  •  Nice work there brownsox! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mooncat, countrycat

    Love that map of Alabama districts.

    Is that a typo that 400 of Alabama's third district residents were polled? Or did we poll the third district about the AL-02 candidate?

    Those internals are fascinating! 32% of Republicans had a very favorable rating of Bobby Bright and 52% favorable.

    That's unreal!! and Love is trailing McCain by 9%.

    At an Auburn University poll Mike Rogers AL-03 is trailing McCain by 5% and as an incumbent is below 50% in that poll and below 45% in a poll on Oct 3.

    Any chance we can get a poll commissioned on AL-03? Kossacks have around $3000 in Josh Segall through my ActBlue and Two for Tuesdays in the race! It sounds like it's going to be a close race. They redistricted AL-03 and so now there's a much larger AA population.

    Meanwhile, Mr. McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, became the incredible shrinking man. (from the STL Post Dispatch's endorsement of Obama)

    by CornSyrupAwareness on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:02:01 PM PDT

    •  We can win AL-03 (4+ / 0-)

      if progressives support Segall.

      See my comment downthread.

      Bright is a great guy, but he will be a true-blue Blue Dog.  And that's about what we can expect from that district.

      But, in AL03, Segall is really progressive.  I know him and I've served on boards with his father.  Isn't it time we sent a nice Jewish boy to Congress from Alabama?

      Yes, the campaign doesn't stress that, but I think it's pretty cool.

      Yes. There ARE progressive Democrats in Alabama. Visit with us at Left in Alabama

      by countrycat on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:12:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  what a great name duo... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mooncat, bluejeandem

    Ah, do I go with Bright??

    Or do I go with Love...?

    Alas... /*eyes gazing off longingly*\

  •  This is the kind of situation where (4+ / 0-)

    accurate info is critical. If this is a real pick-up opportunity, I hope we are spending the $$$ to make it happen. Even out here in deep blue CA we are getting Obama ads, perhaps the DCCC should put out some national ads as well (I don't want to find out on 11/5 that 30 Republicans barely held on to their seats because we failed to take the fight to them).

    Love that "power of the purse!" It looks so nice up there on the mantle (and not the table) next to the "subpoena power."

    by Sacramento Dem on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:04:43 PM PDT

    •  It sounds like the DCCC is putting good $$in AL02 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mooncat, countrycat, Sacramento Dem

      See this story from LeftinAlabama. Independent Expenditures Floodgates Open

      302,000 to Bright in just one week

      http://www.leftinalabama.com/...

      I asked Kate the Deputy campaign manager for Josh Segall AL-03 if the DCCC has given them money since changing him to R2B. It didn't sound like they had. I asked her again to clarify.. alpolitics from progressiveelectorate.com said that the DCCC wasn't doing much in AL-03.

      They sent Steny Hoyer down to fundraise but he had a conflict of schedule. Might get it rescheduled in the coming week or so... ::fingers crossed::

      Meanwhile, Mr. McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, became the incredible shrinking man. (from the STL Post Dispatch's endorsement of Obama)

      by CornSyrupAwareness on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:10:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A "schedule conflict" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mooncat, CornSyrupAwareness

        Damn.

        That was the ONLY thing the DCCC had offered to do for Segall.

        I'm so glad I've kept my money in Alabama this year.  I spread it around in 2006, but we've got some good opportunities this year that the national party is ignoring.

        Yes. There ARE progressive Democrats in Alabama. Visit with us at Left in Alabama

        by countrycat on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:17:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Great to hear (about AL-02) (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        countrycat

        I just wonder if some other races are just as tight (but we aren't aware, since nobody is polling every R+13 district in the country). Occasionally I browse the results from 2006, and there are a number of R's who won with less than 60% of the vote that year, and seem to be getting a free ride this year. Things are moving fast and I am impressed with our efforts (I'm just greedy for justice).

        Love that "power of the purse!" It looks so nice up there on the mantle (and not the table) next to the "subpoena power."

        by Sacramento Dem on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:20:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Interesting numbers here.. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mooncat, countrycat, Sacramento Dem

          Pierce got 63.5 thousand votes, by spending $7000 on his campaign versus Rogers who spent $1M in 2006.

          Josh has raised well over 500K, not sure the exact number. Also I believe they did some redistricting which includes a lot more AA in AL-03. Someone said it's 1/3.

          DKos has done an insane job raising funds for SO MANY candidates, and it's no suprise that AL-03 Segall isn't getting enough attention given that it's Alabama and they vote +22 for Republicans in the Presidential. But there's a real chance to win here and to go from DEEP DEEP Neo Con Red, anti-gay red, to progressive Blue. So this isn't a red to blue race, it's DDNCRed to Blue

          Meanwhile, Mr. McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, became the incredible shrinking man. (from the STL Post Dispatch's endorsement of Obama)

          by CornSyrupAwareness on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:26:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I could be wrong (4+ / 0-)

            (and I often am), but this just feels like a once in a lifetime opportunity. And unlike some sports analogy in politics the margin of victory has a very real impact on what can get done. 60+ senate seats and Universal healthcare becomes much more likely 55 seats and it becomes just a small expansion of SCHIP.

            Love that "power of the purse!" It looks so nice up there on the mantle (and not the table) next to the "subpoena power."

            by Sacramento Dem on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:38:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  It would make no financial sense (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sacramento Dem

      for the DCCC to advertise nationally. None at all. And what would the ads be? Just generic "vote Dem in your local House race"?

  •  A Democrat For Huckabee.... (5+ / 0-)

    ....interesting concept.  Bright would be another Jim Marshall, but undoubtedly a step up from either Everett or Love.

  •  Kos, you need to get a new pollster. (4+ / 0-)
    This district is 29% black, not 17%.

    I am not gay. I have never been gay.

    by MJJLWolf on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:06:35 PM PDT

  •  It would be great to win AL-03 (4+ / 0-)

    and have Josh Segall, a real progressive.

    Don't get me wrong.  I like Bobby Bright, and he's good on economic issues, but on abortion, marriage equality, he's blue dog down the line.

    Take a look at the AL-03 race, where we have 29 yr old Josh Segall challenging do-nothing Mike Rogers.  This race is winnable!

    Josh is a real progressive, smart, and would be a breath of fresh air for Alabama.  He was recently added to the DCCC's red to blue list, but they haven't coughed up any money.

    Like the race in NC in 2006 with Larry Kissel, even $50k might make the difference. I remember the heartbreak when he came so close, and I'm afraid this will happen with Segall.

    PLEASE GIVE, GIVE, GIVE!  Josh is worth it!

    Yes. There ARE progressive Democrats in Alabama. Visit with us at Left in Alabama

    by countrycat on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 03:10:01 PM PDT

  •  He's done decent thnigs for montgomery (5+ / 0-)

    And his ads have been decent and non-negative as well. He's undeniably conservative, but a likable guy and much better than Jay Love.

  •  What is good about this poll is that you (3+ / 0-)

    have a smaller number of black voters than actually live in the district. If blacks are undersampled you would think that Bright would be doing slightly better.

  •  Coat tails (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mooncat, CornSyrupAwareness

    I really do think that a very significant thing happened during the special elections in Lousiana and Mississippi earlier this year. In both cases, the RNCC tried very hard to tie Obama to both Democratic candidates.

    And they both won.

    At that point, many centrists/moderate Democratic movers and shakers in the South decided that Obama wasn't going to be the anchor to local candidates that Conventional Wisdom had assumed.

    And now he may well pull some of those centrists over the finish line. As tough as the GOP and the business community are going to be in resisting any and all initiatives that a Obama administration may propose, Obama will have a significant advantage that Clinton didn't enjoy: Southern elected officials who will in part owe their positioning in 2010 -- and therefore more influence over the upcoming Redistricting -- to a President Obama and just a bit less to the monied interest. That will be very important in that first 100 days of Congress.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site