Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (9/17-18 numbers).
Luetkemeyer (R) 47 (49)
Baker (D) 42 (40)
That's a pretty good trend for Orange to Blue candidate Judy Baker, who is now within the margin of error in our polling. The last DCCC poll released on the race showed Baker ahead by four points, 40% to 36%.
The two candidates are tied among women, but Luetkemeyer leads by 10 points among men. Her latest ad, which targets Luetkemeyer for voting against compelling insurance companies to cover mammograms, may well be designed to solidify Baker's support among women.
The candidates are also essentially tied among independents - Luetkemeyer leads 44% to 42% among indies. Baker will need to surge ahead among independents in order to win.
Not surprisingly, Baker is outperforming Obama in this conservative R+7 district. McCain leads Obama 54% to 40%, which is slightly above Bush/Kerry levels (Bush defeated Kerry here 59-41).
We wrote yesterday that this had become one of the very hottest races in the country; this poll would certainly seem to confirm that. Baker can absolutely win this race; you can do your part here to ensure that she does.
On the web:
Judy Baker for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page
MO-NINTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Ninth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 22, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 191 (48%)
Women 209 (52%)
Democrats 126 (31%)
Republicans 155 (39%)
Independents/Other 119 (30%)
18-29 72 (18%)
30-44 128 (32%)
45-59 121 (31%)
60+ 79 (19%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Blaine Luetkemeyer? (Iffavorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 38% 22% 11% 17%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 50% 33% 17%
MEN 55% 31% 14%
WOMEN 45% 35% 20%
DEMOCRATS 30% 54% 16%
REPUBLICANS 72% 15% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 33% 23%
18-29 47% 36% 17%
30-44 52% 31% 17%
45-59 49% 34% 17%
60+ 51% 31% 18%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Judy Baker? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 33% 28% 10% 19%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 43% 38% 19%
MEN 39% 43% 18%
WOMEN 47% 33% 20%
DEMOCRATS 58% 20% 22%
REPUBLICANS 32% 54% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 42% 35% 23%
18-29 45% 33% 22%
30-44 42% 42% 16%
45-59 44% 35% 21%
60+ 41% 42% 17%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Judy Bakerthe Democrat or Blaine Luetkemeyer the Republican?
LUETKEMEYER BAKER OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 42% 8% 3%
MEN 50% 40% 9% 1%
WOMEN 44% 44% 7% 5%
DEMOCRATS 9% 84% 5% 2%
REPUBLICANS 80% 8% 9% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 42% 10% 4%
18-29 42% 45% 8% 5%
30-44 52% 39% 8% 1%
45-59 45% 43% 9% 3%
60+ 49% 41% 7% 3%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 54% 40% 3% 3%
MEN 59% 37% 3% 1%
WOMEN 49% 43% 3% 5%
DEMOCRATS 16% 80% 3% 1%
REPUBLICANS 84% 10% 2% 4%
OTHER 56% 38% 3% 3%
18-29 50% 44% 3% 3%
30-44 55% 37% 4% 4%
45-59 54% 41% 3% 2%
60+ 57% 37% 2% 4%