I thought it would be a good time to look at the election from the perspective of the other side and look at Palin, Polls and the reasoning of some who think McCain will pull off a victory. I must tell you though on the last subject a lot of it sounds like the stuff in 1992 before Clinton won and some of it maybe the inability of some to accept the first black president.
John McCain's VP selection continues to drag on him in the polls, but is very popular with "the base". A large section of "the base" seems to be young men with raging hormones and old men overdosing on Viagra! I have posted the latest "soft porn" excerpts from the Freepers, who seem most infatuated with Ms. Palins looks and as long as she utters terrorist, tax cuts, Bill Ayers its enough to satisfy the mob mentality . . .
http://www.freerepublic.com/...
Meanwhile, I am sure Palin is running for POTUS in 2012 and the republicans may allow her if the Democrat is unbeatable like Clinton was in 1996. There are plans for a Sarah Palin comic from bluewater and there is rumor that a website has been reserved for her to run, see link below on details.
http://www.democraticunderground.com...
Many in the republican party will be blaming McCain for the loss and trying to regenerate the conservative movement with a fresh new face like Palin. It will be interesting the next four years, but I would not underestimate her and I would not underestimate the Republicans they could make a comeback as soon as 2010 in the mid-term elections if things don't go well for the dems.
Now to the polls and the polls seem to be all over the place and the wingnuts like Rush, Drudge and Hannity point to the polls that show the race is close. The polls range from 1 point in recent days to 13 points, but you really have to look at the facts at hand to make sense of the polls and I offer the following analysis:
1) None of the Polls show McCain in the lead
2) The polls showing a small margin of victory
have a large number of undecided and one had
over sampling of evangelical Christians.
3) The close polls are good news, its means Obama
is out polling McCain on base support and even
in more conservative samples.
4) Obama has stabilized in most polls above 48%
and McCain has had trouble breaking 45%.
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The best thing to do is to ignore the individual polls and check into the following web sites:
http://pollster.com/
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
I enjoy pollster and 538 because I am a bit of a data freak, but the last one electoral-vote is great for someone doesn't want to be overwhelmed with data. Electoral-vote has a very nifty feature you can look at their map for the same date on the 2004 election as a comparison. I must admit that I do go over Rasmussen, Gallup & Zogby to check on the daily tracks to get a sense of the movement. I think we can conclude that Obama is ahead and if current trends continue he will be the next POTUS, but watch out for an October or November surprise from the Republicans they are desperate and crazy!
Finally, the last of the true believers still think McCain win because of the Bradley effect and some of the recent polling. Well, are they on to something? I don't know, but the following article is interesting and has some good points. Although most of their logic appears to be wishful thinking!
http://www.americanthinker.com/...
and of course my favorite the FREEPERS, again disputing polling data and looking for victory in all the wrong places!
http://www.freerepublic.com/...
Breaking News : Palin's will be with McCain's on Election Night in Arizona! Misery loves company!
Enjoy the freak show, I believe we on our away to victory . . . but watch out . . . vote early . . . and donate to Obama/Biden!
More Breaking News: Obama leads in Ohio on the Ohio Newspaper Poll by 3, the last poll he was down by 3. This poll is very conservative but is showing movement in Obama's direction. http://politicalwire.com/...