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North Carolina had 149,245 more early votes cast Friday, for a cumulative total of 980,035 through 9 days of a 17-day early voting period, nearing the 2004 final total of 984,294.  The million vote barrier should be shattered sometime Saturday morning. The final 2008 number could be close to 2 million.

Blacks made up 26.87% of the Friday total, down from the 27.34% who voted Thursday. Both numbers greatly exceed the 21.4% of registered voters who are Black. Already, 22.33% of Black registered voters in North Carolina have voted early, compared with 14.14% of Whites.

The current D to R ratio is 58% to 25%, compared with 2004's final 48% to 37%

For 2008, here is a breakdown by race of the first 9 days:
Black       30.29%
White       65.89%
Native Am   0.35%
Two Races   0.38%
Other*      3.09%

* includes Asian, blank field, undesignated, AND other.

By party, the 2008 totals are

Cumulative 9-day
Unaffiliated 16.89%
Republican   24.90%
Libertarian   0.05%
Democratic   58.16%

53.30% of the early votes Friday were Democratic, off from the 55.52% of Thursday.  The 53.30% is nearly double the GOP total of 28.88% of Friday.

The entire electorate in North Carolina breaks down:
Unaffiliated 22.26%
Republican   32.04%
Libertarian   0.05%
Democratic   45.66%

North Carolina registered over 862,000 new voters in 2008, and voter registration continues at early voting sites.

As of Friday, the following percentage of each party's electorate has voted early:
Unaffiliated   11.99%
Republican     12.27%
Libertarian    16.19%
Democratic     20.13%

2004 totals for early voting:
Unaffiliated 15%
Republican   37%
Libertarian 0.5%
Democratic 48%

North Carolina allows early voting through Saturday, November 1.
Here are the number of sites open each day:
Saturday 10/25: 197 in 53 counties
Sunday 10/26: 55 in 10 counties
Monday 10/27: 365 in 100 counties
Tuesday through Friday: 360 in 100 counties
Saturday 11/1 337 sites in 100 counties

90 counties cut off at 1 pm November 1, the other 10 have closing hours the final day from 2 pm to as late as 5 pm.

This diary does NOT include stats on mail-in absentee ballots, only those cast in person. Since North Carolina captures party and race on its registration records, and posts early votes cast to the voter record each evening, stats can be run the next morning.

No racial breakdown is available for 2004 on the State Board of Elections files.

files used for data analysis
2008 ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx04xx2008_Stats.xls (updated daily)
2004 ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx02xx2004.zip
2008 http://sboe.state.nc.us (current registration)
October 25 registration totals at
http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/...
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/...
2008 new voters
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/...

Originally posted to dean4ever on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 03:18 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Turnout (10+ / 0-)

    is going to be tremendous everywhere. Can you imagine what a mess the polls would be if tghere was no early voting?

    Second star on the right and straight on til morning

    by wren on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 03:22:55 AM PDT

  •  And yet gallup has early voting eventlly split! (0+ / 0-)

    Gallup is fucking weird!

    •  Thats not what Gallup said!!!! (11+ / 0-)

      Gallup said 10% of Obama voters have already voted, 9% of McCain have voted.  21% of Obama supports plan to vote early and 20% of McCain supporters plan to vote early.  

      But since Obama is ahead in the polls it means that there are MORE Obama supporters than McCain supporters.  So, thos 10% are probably a lot more people than the 9% of McCain supporters.  Remember that Obama has been ahead in the gallup poll with a clear margin for a long time.

      Look at what Gallup say:
      "Obama has been ahead in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted while these data were being gathered. Thus, while equal percentages of Obama and McCain voters have voted early, there are more of the former than of the latter, meaning that early voting generally reflects the same Obama lead evident in the overall sample"

        •  Keep in mind (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          IUDemocrat, gfab, NCDemDanno

          Margin of error is a factor in these polls. You're talking about sample sizes somewhere in the range of 60-70 people tops, probably 45 for Obama and 35 for McCain (or somewhere around there). That gives you a margin of error somewhere around +/- 17 points. Also, nationally Obama's early voting is not doing as well as he is in NC and GA specifically. NC and Georgia's numbers are ridiculous. Let me put it this way: in 2004 NC's early voting had voter breakdowns that were no more than half a percent, for the major parties, off from the total demographic breakdown by party for the whole election (48.6% D, 37.4% R, 14.1% I early voted, as opposed to 47.9% D, 37.5% R, 15.8% I for the entire election). Now look at the current early voting numbers. Dems are voting 10% HIGHER than they were last time around and Repubs are 13% LOWER. That there's a damn fine turnout machine in NC - and they've already almost matched the number of early votes in '04 with an entire week left to go.

  •  Simply for the sake of argument, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eeff, badlands, zenmasterjack

    if we arbitrarily assume all Democrats vote for Obama and all Republicans vote for McCain, and if we allocate the 17% Unaffiliated by giving McCain 10 percentage points and Obama 7, that means that currently Obama is ahead 637,000 to 343,000 in NC.

    •  true, but you should not do that (5+ / 0-)

      I'm from NC and historically a lot of democrats typically vote for the republican candidate in presidential elections.  NC has long had more registered democrats but still has been a "red" state as far as national elections go.  NC usually votes democratic for state and local elections. For example, we have a democratic Governor and both the State House and Senate have democratic majorities but voted for Bush in 2004 and has both Senators currently Republican.  However, I do sense a sea change this year in NC and I believe Obama will win, not only NC but the entire election.

      •  NCDemDanno is 100% correct (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Yosef 52, kw7777777

        Appalachia Democrats tend to be funny Democrats. Take West Virginia. That state is currently 55.71% Democratic by registration, and only 29% Republican - I believe the highest Democratic ID percentage in the entire country. It's been that way for decades. And yet when was the last time you saw West Virginia go blue? North Carolina has a good deal of "Blue Dog" Democrats, or whatever you'd like to call them. With all the talk of party ID swings this election and NC huge Dem registration turn out it might surprise you to learn that Democrats have only gained a single percentage point increase in Party ID there (46.7% to 47.7%) and Republicans have only lost a point (34.6% to 33.5% - Indies gained 5 points but are the least likely to show up to the polls). In 2004 Kerry had a 12 point party ID advantage and yet lost by 12.5%! This was largely because he only won something like 78% of the unenthused Democratic vote (this is an educated, but probably fairly accurate guess - if you look at the exit polls that year they are way off and would have Kerry only losing by 4 points) whereas Bush, riding on the Evangelical wave that year, won something like 96% of the Republican vote. A lot of folks down here still say that ol' George "did his best," even though he turned out to be a total fuck up. Luckily, if the early voting is any indication, Democrats are hyped up this year - and blacks especially (they only had a turnout of 59% last year, knocking them down to about 18.9% of the voting population, when they comprise about 22% of registered voters in NC). Also, and this is not to be dismissed - Republicans are deeply, deeply depressed in their voting. They usually turn out in the highest numbers (69% to the Dem's 65%) but are barely making a dent in early voting.

        As for Obama's lead so far, it's a much more cloudy picture than your assumptions make it out to be. I peg it at somewhere around a 140,000-200,000 vote lead right now, depending on which pollsters you trust the most on the subject. If you're a SurveyUSA man look more toward the low-end of that spectrum. If, like me, you're a PPP believer, look more toward the high-end.

  •  In 2004 about 3.5mil voted in NC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kw7777777

    Assuming 4 million vote this year, and 2 million will vote early, Obama could well have an insurmountable lead before November 4th.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 04:30:10 AM PDT

    •  He'd have to win the remaining voters about 60-40 (0+ / 0-)

      That is, assuming the early vote numbers stay at this proportion until 2 million. I doubt pretty highly you'll see that many early voters - though it's technically possible. If you do see 2 million votes, though it's much more likely that we could expect a turnout somewhere around the 5 million mark - if not more as it would be indicative of a very high excitement level. That would truly be a sight to see.

      Georgia is going to be a big one to watch too - they've registered 1.3 million more voters since 2004 - a little more than 13% of their population.

  •  Dean4Ever (0+ / 0-)

    Racial breakdowns in NC in 2004 were roughly 79.6% White, 18.7% Black, and about 1.7% other (Latino's overlap in the white and black subgroups in NC filings). You just have to extrapolate the data from the Voter Statistics page and the Voter Turnout percentages they give you on the election page.

    •  Yes, but these are final voting stats.... (0+ / 0-)

       and not early voting stats.
       I don't think we will reach 2M in early voting. We should end at 1.8-1.9 million. Based upon current registration numbers, I think the final vote total will be in the 4.3M range. This is about a 70% turnout overall. The key will be have the AA population up near 75%. I think this is possible.
       Keep in mind that dean4ever has not included the early voting by mail-in for civilian, military, or overseas vote. This total thus far is almost 108,000 votes. In this tally, the Republicans lead Democrats almost 2-1. Since the total is smaller compared to the 980,000 one stop votes, the net difference between Dems and Republicans should continue to grow each day. Overall, NC has had  1,088,825 to vote.
        Independents will be the key in NC to an Obama win. Thus far, we have had 165,574 independents who have voted one stop. If we have 70% voter turnout among Independents with the great ground game that Obama has in place, he should win by 4% or more. From my phone banking in Cary, there has been a huge emphasis on making contact with the Independent voters to ascertain their support for Obama.

      The human race is truly the highest species on earth. No other species can procreate with the female on top.

      by NC Dem on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:34:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think it's tough to pin an exact number (0+ / 0-)

        On turnout. About a month or so ago when I was just making some basic projections based on 2004's turnout and the subsequent growth, I figured we'd see just shy of 4 million votes and probably 1.2 million early votes or so. But this election definitely feels like something different. One of the things that seems very prevalent is a lack of enthusiasm on the Republican side of things, especially if you look at NC and GA's numbers. Where the Democrats are far outperforming their previous years Republicans are turning out significantly less, like in the range of 30-40% less. I don't know if we'll see 1.8 million early votes but I think we'll see some really surprising overall numbers on election day if we do.
        I'm a bit surprised to hear Obama is pushing for independents, given their overall lack of reliability at the polls - though it would be one heck of a tough turnout battle on the Dem side without them. One stop makes sense, though, since you'd be locking in their vote. They are underperforming a bit percentage wise, though. They comprise 23% of the voting electorate now while only making up 17% of early voters.
        Anyhow, keep up the good work, man. I'll be hitting the HQ tomorrow and possibly after work this coming week if it will make a difference.

  •  Anybody know why (0+ / 0-)
    on the NC ballots, which permit straight ticket voting for D or R with one tick box, the presidential race is excluded?  (you have to cast a vote for president in addition to the straight ticket box), and of course, for all the non-partisan office races.

    The poll workers and volunteers for both sides made this very clear, and there were posted signs to emphasize this.

    I just thought it was odd.  My old states never had a straight ticket voting option.  

    Those who hear not the music-think the dancers mad

    by Eiron on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:30:07 AM PDT

    •  This law was passed in 1964. (0+ / 0-)

         The Dixiecrats still controlled the state legislature but were seeing a trend for voters to pull a straight ticket vote for Republicans because they didn't like the more liberal national Presidential leader. Stevenson in 1952 and 1956 and then Kennedy in 1960 were too liberal for many.
         By separating the President from the rest of the state voting, the voters could vote for a right-moderate figure for the President and it didn't negatively effect the downline voting for state house and senate positions. No matter what, these were always conservative to moderate unless they were pushing education like Terry Sanford and Jim Hunt.

      The human race is truly the highest species on earth. No other species can procreate with the female on top.

      by NC Dem on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:45:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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