Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
McCain (R) 50
Obama (D) 41
South Dakota was a 22 percent Bush victory in 2004:
Yet here we are this year, looking at a 9-point deficit. McCain is at 50 percent, and he'll likely take the state's three electoral votes. But Obama has radically transformed the state of that state -- and has pushed South Dakota closer to "purple" status.
Meanwhile, Sen. Tim Johnson wins 57-35, winning even 28 percent of Republicans. Not that anyone thought this race was competitive, but Senate Republicans did enter the cycle hoping to be competitive in the state. Then Johnson had his stroke, which made him more difficult to attack. And Republicans put up their flesh-eating penis-enlarging zombie candidate, Steve Kirby, which turned this race into a farce. A hilarious farce. Kirby is long gone, as are the GOP's hopes to take this seat.
SOUTH DAKOTA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 South Dakota Poll was conducted from October 22 through October
24, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 241 (40%)
Republicans 282 (47%)
Other 77 (13%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 192 (32%)
45-59 181 (30%)
60+ 125 (21%)
QUESTION: As you may know ballot Measure 11 will be on the ballot in two weeks to enact a new law to make abortions in the state illegal. The law would have exceptions in cases resulting from rape or incest that have been reported to law enforcement authorities and to save the life or health of a woman when there is a serious risk of permanent damage to one or more of her major bodily organs as a result of the pregnancy.
If you were voting today would you vote YES meaning the law would take effect OR would you vote NO meaning the law will not take effect?
STRONG STRONG
YES YES NO NO UNDECIDED
ALL 24% 18% 16% 28% 14%
MEN 25% 21% 15% 26% 13%
WOMEN 23% 15% 17% 30% 15%
DEMOCRATS 11% 11% 26% 39% 13%
REPUBLICANS 36% 25% 7% 18% 14%
OTHER 22% 16% 17% 31% 14%
18-29 23% 18% 16% 27% 16%
30-44 24% 18% 17% 29% 12%
45-59 26% 19% 14% 26% 15%
60+ 23% 17% 17% 30% 13%
U.S. SENATE:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tim Johnson? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 24% 37% 18% 9% 12%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 61% 27% 12%
MEN 58% 31% 11%
WOMEN 64% 23% 13%
DEMOCRATS 79% 8% 13%
REPUBLICANS 44% 46% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 66% 17% 17%
18-29 63% 25% 12%
30-44 59% 29% 12%
45-59 60% 28% 12%
60+ 61% 26% 13%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joel Dykstra (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 8% 30% 31% 12% 19%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 38% 43% 19%
MEN 40% 42% 18%
WOMEN 36% 44% 20%
DEMOCRATS 19% 66% 15%
REPUBLICANS 56% 23% 21%
INDEPENDENTS 33% 46% 21%
18-29 36% 46% 18%
30-44 40% 40% 20%
45-59 39% 42% 19%
60+ 37% 44% 19%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Tim Johnson the Democrat or Joel Dykstra the Republican?
JOHNSON DYKSTRA UNDECIDED
ALL 57% 35% 8%
MEN 56% 37% 7%
WOMEN 58% 33% 9%
DEMOCRATS 87% 5% 8%
REPUBLICANS 28% 63% 9%
INDEPENDENTS 69% 26% 5%
18-29 60% 31% 9%
30-44 56% 38% 6%
45-59 55% 37% 8%
60+ 58% 34% 8%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 41% 3% 6%
MEN 52% 39% 4% 5%
WOMEN 48% 43% 2% 7%
DEMOCRATS 10% 82% 2% 6%
REPUBLICANS 85% 6% 3% 6%
OTHER 47% 43% 5% 5%
18-29 47% 44% 3% 6%
30-44 53% 38% 4% 5%
45-59 51% 40% 3% 6%
60+ 49% 42% 2% 7%