Let there be no mistake - multiple hunderstorms are gathering to converge into a perfect storm aimed at decapitating the Republican Party for the foreseeable future. The storm hits the night of November 4, 2008 and the cleanup in the conservative aisle aisle will take a long time.
First up is the election. It is expected to be a barnburner of a night on Nov. 4 if the usually sanguine prognastications of David Plouffe's team turn out to be accurate. Similar to the leak of their projections for victory over their contenders in the primaries, Plouffe's team has now leaked what they expect to see on election night. Plouffe revealed Obama is on target to hold all of the Kerry'04 states netting him 251 seats. In addition, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia, consisting of 34 electoral votes are considered to be "in the bag", boosting Obama's count to 285. This is expected to the floor for Obama.
In addition to the floor, the team also feels confident about Nevada, Ohio and Florida, comprising of 52 electoral votes. If they get these as expected, the tally goes to 337, but it doesn't end there. The team is also looking to pull off wins in 5 other red states fetching 45 additional electoral votes - Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia and Montana, providing a likely runup to 382 electoral votes.
And then there are some strange things happening in states even they did not count on. North Dakota (3EVs) and Georgia (15EVs) are too close for the Republicans' comfort. Georgia is particularly interesting because of the large percentage of non-white population and favorite son Bob Barr's name on the ballot. Can these two factors contribute enough steam to the Obama engine in Georgia? This is the state I would watch with fascination on results night because if it doesn't go blue this time around, it most probably will 4 years from now. Add to this the October Surprise against Saxby Chambliss - subpoenaed for his alleged role in the Imperial Sugar imbroglio - and Georgia might just turn blue. Could 1 of Nebraska's CDs go for Obama? Can Obama breach the psychological 400 EVs? It's certainly possible, but all the stars will have to be aligned for this tsunami to occur.
Between 337 and 382 seems quite likely though and this is why we see the McCainiacs disintegrating even before the campaign has ended. Watch out for the brutal recriminations that will invariably ensue with the 3 strong factions - the conservatives, the neocons and the theocons - pointing fingers at each other while a subset of the groups finger Bush for the end of conservatism, McCain for the horrible campaign he has run and a multitude of tiny mutinies within the party rank and file stabbing each other over perceived and real slights, insults and braggadocio - and yes, this includes the right wing media apologists be they in print, on the net or on the air waves. The long overdue backlash against the vicious peddlers of anger and venom on the airwaves, if not seen as one of the core problems stymying the growth of meaningful discourse on the conservative agenda, and if not rectified at the earliest, will only prolong the long winter of discontent for Republicanism.
While it may be audacious for weak-hearted and superstitious Democrats to think about the Obama administration yet, with the election barely 2 weeks away, the prudent thing to do, nevertheless, is to plan for a smooth transition to the White House in a time of extraordinary crisis and lack of leadership commensurate with the situation at hand. Obama's team is already readying for the inevitable. 700 possible candidates are being vetted for key positions in the administration. In all likelihood there will be no sitting senators in his administration unless there is no other alternative and such senator can be quickly replaced by a Dem Governor with another Dem senator in the same seat. Also do not rule out a few Republican ex-Senators in the administration, most likely Dick Lugar, Chuck Hagel and perhaps even Robert Gates continuing in his current role, though I think Gates would want out. Some notable inclusions can be easily guaged - the likes of Susan Rice, Samantha Power, Tim Kaine, may be a couple of Governors who cannot run again for re-election, Tom Daschle, Bill Daley, David Plouffe, Eric Holder, etc. Don't get taken in by the high profile names like Warren Buffett or Meg Whitman. I doubt these CEOs will be considered safe bets while the current crisis in the economy unfolds. There would be just too much conflict of interest associated with such appointments - which is why I also think Hank Paulson will not be retained despite Obama stating he is willing to consider extending his stay. The interesting appointment will be whether Ben Bernanke will be retained since he is actively campaigning for retaining his role under an Obama Presidency. My money would be on Obama replacing him too with either Larry Summers or a younger choice who is not ideological and who may even be more academic - does Paul Krugmann get a consideration on the strength of his recent Nobel Prize on a topic so timely for the current economic environment? Probably not. By the way, Arnold Schwarzenegger is rumored to be under consideration for Secretary of Environment and if offered is willing to serve. The Kennedy's have a few chips to cash in, I guess.
With moderate Republicans like Lugar, Hagel, perhaps even Arnold being pressed into service, it is quite likely that the Obama Republicans may end up being the equivalent of the Reagan Democrats for some time to come. This could realign the political forces in the country leaving a Republican Party with a barely moderate voice and a more militant wing calling the shots. If McCain voting states are reduced to a handful in the South and West, the next election may see some of those Western states like Wyoming, Montana, Arizona and a couple of South states like Georgia and South Carolina move into the blue column provided Obama governs like everyone expects him to - in a transformational manner. For all the faults of the Republican Party, this will provide a great opportunity to tie them down into simply a Dixiecrat phenomenon going forward.
Or atleast until the next Democratic Congress screws it up badly enough for themselves and for Obama, anyway. Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. The toughest task of the netroots going forward will in all likelihood be to keep the Dem Congress in check and rein them in if they go down the same drunken path as the Republican majority did over the last decade.
Updated - Pat Buchanan was on MSNBC this morning stating he's seen snippets of Obama's 30 minutes ad and from what he's seen it is a smart, positive ad asking Americans to leave the past behind and focus on the future. Apparently Obama laid out what he expects to do for the future and Pat thinks this is going to be a good ad for Obama.