Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).
Harris (R) 44
Kratovil (D) 40
Maryland's First District is an undeniably conservative place, sporting a PVI of R+10. It was gerrymandered to be one of two solidly Republican districts in Maryland, as part of a Democratic redistricting plan to eliminate Reps. Bob Ehrlich (who was subsequently elected Governor of Maryland before losing his reelection bid to Gov. Martin O'Malley), and Connie Morella (who was defeated in 2002 by current Rep. Chris Van Hollen).
Among those left standing was moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest, who represented MD-01, now aligned to include both the predominantly rural Eastern Shore of Maryland, as well as small pockets of Anne Arundel County, Harford County and Baltimore County. The Eastern Shore itself is a conservative place, with a lot of conservative Democrats. In some ways, it is culturally Southern, and usually votes solidly Republican. It's also the home of Democratic candidate Frank Kratovil.
This race first appeared on the national radar when incumbent Republican Wayne Gilchrest lost in the Republican primary to a Club for Growth-back right-wing State Senator, Andy Harris.
This opened the race to a potential Democratic victory for the first time in decades, for the following reasons:
- Kratovil has a good profile for a Democrat in the district; he's a moderate who has served as a prosecutor and state's attorney in the past. Law-and-order types frequently do very well in such elections.
- The primary was a bitter one, and Harris is viewed as an extremist even by many Republicans.
- Former Rep. Gilchrest endorsed Frank Kratovil and did a nice ad for him (he also endorsed Barack Obama for President).
- Kratovil hails from the Eastern Shore, while Harris is from Baltimore County.
Kratovil's geographic advantage, coming from the Eastern Shore, gives him a leg up on most Democrats running in the district, and he may even win the Eastern Shore. If he can keep his margins down in Baltimore County - Harris' home turf - Kratovil has a good shot at victory.
Here's a map of the district, to illustrate the regional divide:
This poll indicates that Kratovil has a real chance to win this election. The best numbers for him lie in his favorables, which are superior to Harris', and his numbers among independents.
Kratovil's favorables are at 45/33 favorable/unfavorable, a significant advantage over Harris' 45/44. He also leads among independents, 47% to 42%.
He will also be helped by an unusually strong Democratic candidacy in the district. Obama trails McCain 47-43 in MD-01...which is stunning, when you consider that Bush defeated Kerry 62-38 in the district.
So overall, these are very promising numbers for the Democrat. If a Democrat is likely to win this district anytime soon, it will be Frank Kratovil this year.
On the web:
Frank Kratovil for Congress
MD-1 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the First Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 23, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 194 (48%)
Women 206 (52%)
Democrats 147 (37%)
Republicans 135 (34%)
Independents/Other 118 (29%)
18-29 72 (18%)
30-44 132 (33%)
45-59 116 (29%)
60+ 80 (20%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Andy Harris? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 31% 32% 12% 11%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 45% 44% 11%
MEN 49% 41% 10%
WOMEN 41% 47% 12%
DEMOCRATS 30% 60% 10%
REPUBLICANS 64% 24% 12%
INDEPENDENTS 42% 47% 11%
18-29 41% 48% 11%
30-44 47% 41% 12%
45-59 47% 42% 11%
60+ 45% 45% 10%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Frank Kratovil? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 32% 24% 9% 22%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 45% 33% 22%
MEN 42% 37% 21%
WOMEN 48% 29% 23%
DEMOCRATS 63% 20% 17%
REPUBLICANS 24% 51% 25%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 30% 23%
18-29 49% 30% 21%
30-44 42% 36% 22%
45-59 43% 35% 22%
60+ 46% 32% 22%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Frank Kratovil the Democrat or Andy Harris the Republican?
HARRIS KRATOVIL UNDECIDED
ALL 44% 40% 16%
MEN 48% 38% 14%
WOMEN 40% 42% 18%
DEMOCRATS 13% 71% 16%
REPUBLICANS 79% 5% 16%
INDEPENDENTS 42% 43% 15%
18-29 40% 44% 16%
30-44 47% 38% 15%
45-59 45% 39% 16%
60+ 43% 41% 16%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 43% 3% 7%
MEN 50% 40% 3% 7%
WOMEN 44% 46% 3% 7%
DEMOCRATS 13% 80% 3% 4%
REPUBLICANS 84% 5% 2% 9%
OTHER 47% 40% 4% 9%
18-29 43% 47% 3% 7%
30-44 51% 40% 3% 6%
45-59 48% 41% 3% 8%
60+ 46% 44% 2% 8%