Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-23. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Diaz-Balart (R) 45
Martinez (D) 44
Early voting (17 percent of sample)
Diaz-Balart (R) 42
Martinez (D) 55
Damn -- this isn't just about the toplines, which have Martinez well-positioned to take this thing (with Rep. Diaz-Balart well-under 50 percent). Look at those early voting numbers -- Martinez is banking a nice cushion of votes and amassing a nice advantage heading into Election Day. And this is a rapidly changing district. Check out the voter registration numbers from two years ago, compared to today:
Party Nov-06
REP 129,302 42.44%
DEM 101,156 33.20%
Other 70,927 23.28%
Total 304,609
Party Today
REP 132,531 38.80%
DEM 121,988 35.70%
OTHER 86,767 25.40%
Total: 341,286
What was a 9-point Republican district is now a 3-point district.
Obama has a decent lead in the toplines, and a huge lead in the early voting, in a district Bush won 57-43 in 2004:
McCain (R) 45
Obama (D) 50
Early voting
McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 55
Raul Martinez will pick up this seat, and Obama will win the district on his way to winning the entire state. Here's the district (click on the little "+" sign to zoom in this tiny sliver of a distict), while crosstabs are below the fold.
On the web:
Raul Martinez for Congress
FL-21 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Eighteenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 23, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 194 (48%)
Women 206 (52%)
Democrats 168 (42%)
Republicans 156 (39%)
Independents/Other 76 (19%)
18-29 72 (18%)
30-44 116 (29%)
45-59 124 (31%)
60+ 88 (22%)
White 148 (37%)
Hispanic 204 (51%)
Black 32 (8%)
Other 16 (4%)
Voted 68 (17%)
Not Voted 332 (83%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lincoln Diaz-Balart? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 35% 31% 6% 17%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 46% 37% 17%
MEN 49% 35% 16%
WOMEN 43% 39% 18%
DEMOCRATS 24% 59% 17%
REPUBLICANS 72% 12% 16%
INDEPENDENTS 42% 41% 17%
18-29 42% 41% 17%
30-44 47% 36% 17%
45-59 44% 39% 17%
60+ 51% 33% 16%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Raul Martinez? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 33% 29% 7% 20%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 44% 36% 20%
MEN 41% 40% 19%
WOMEN 47% 32% 21%
DEMOCRATS 62% 18% 20%
REPUBLICANS 24% 57% 19%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 34% 21%
18-29 48% 32% 20%
30-44 42% 38% 20%
45-59 46% 33% 21%
60+ 40% 41% 19%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Raul Martinez the Democrat or Lincoln Diaz-Balart the Republican?
DIAZ-BALART MARTINEZ OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 45% 44% 1% 10%
VOTED 42% 55% 3%
NOT VOTED 46% 42% 1%
MEN 48% 43% 1% 8%
WOMEN 42% 45% 1% 12%
DEMOCRATS 10% 81% - 9%
REPUBLICANS 83% 5% 1% 11%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 43% 2% 11%
18-29 40% 49% 1% 10%
30-44 47% 41% 1% 11%
45-59 42% 47% 1% 10%
60+ 51% 39% - 10%
WHITE 42% 45% 1% 12%
HISPANIC 56% 35% 1% 8%
BLACK 7% 84% - 9%
OTHER 21% 71% 1% 7%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 45% 3% 2%
VOTED 55% 42% 3%
NOT VOTED 49% 46% 3%
MEN 47% 49% 3% 1%
WOMEN 53% 41% 3% 3%
DEMOCRATS 85% 10% 2% 3%
REPUBLICANS 13% 83% 3% 1%
OTHER 52% 44% 3% 1%
18-29 55% 41% 3% 1%
30-44 48% 47% 3% 2%
45-59 52% 42% 3% 3%
60+ 45% 51% 2% 2%