Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/23-25 results)
Diaz-Balart (R) 46 (45)
Garcia (D) 43 (41)
Early voters (12 percent of sample)
Diaz-Balart (R) 46
Garcia (D) 52
Both candidates are bringing their parties home. The big difference -- and the one that should propel Joe Garcia to victory -- is independents. Last month, Diaz-Balart won them 42-38. Now, they support Garcia 41-42, which means that they are breaking toward him as they make up their mind (as is usually the case against incumbents, which is why it's important to keep them under 50 percent). Throw in the big Obama ground game, the HUGE undecided numbers among African Americans (29 percent), and the early voting numbers being stashed in the bank, and things look quite good indeed.
McCain beats Obama in the district 53-39, which is close to Bush's 56-44 magin in 2004. However, among early voters, Obama leads 55-41. Again, that early vote is coming in huge. The latest early voting numbers from FL-25 support the poll's early voting numbers (which have a large MoE due to the small sample size):
26,522 total voters
Democrats: 47.2% (12,541)
Republicans: 32.7% (5,503)
Independents: 19.9% (8,768)
African-Americans: 18.8%
Hispanics: 48.4%
Whites: 27.6%
Other: 1%
Unknown: 3.9%
And look at the voter registration gains the past two years:
PARTY NOV 2006
REP 129,197 39.50%
DEM 111,207 34%
OTHER 86,667 26.50%
TOTAL 327,071
PARTY TODAY
REP 137,913 35.65%
DEM 134,549 35.62%
OTHER 105,241 27.86%
TOTAL 377,703
What was a 5.5-point GOP edge is now virtually a dead heat, something this poll's likely voter screen isn't picking up. If they turn out, we're in particularly good shape.
On the web:
Joe Garcia for Congress
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FL-25 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Twenty-fifth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 22, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 192 (48%)
Women 208 (52%)
Democrats 136 (34%)
Republicans 146 (37%)
Independents/Other 118 (29%)
18-29 74 (18%)
30-44 127 (32%)
45-59 114 (29%)
60+ 85 (21%)
White 226 (56%)
Hispanic 147 (37%)
Black 18 (5%)
Other 9 (2%)
Voted 48 (12%)
Not Voted 352 (88%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mario Diaz-Balart? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 38% 27% 10% 15%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 48% 37% 15%
MEN 51% 35% 14%
WOMEN 45% 39% 16%
DEMOCRATS 29% 57% 14%
REPUBLICANS 67% 19% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 38% 17%
18-29 45% 41% 14%
30-44 51% 34% 15%
45-59 49% 35% 16%
60+ 47% 38% 15%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Garcia? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 36% 24% 10% 17%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 49% 34% 17%
MEN 46% 38% 16%
WOMEN 52% 30% 18%
DEMOCRATS 68% 24% 8%
REPUBLICANS 31% 45% 24%
INDEPENDENTS 50% 33% 17%
18-29 52% 30% 18%
30-44 46% 38% 16%
45-59 47% 36% 17%
60+ 50% 33% 17%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Joe Garcia the Democrat or Mario Diaz-Balart the Republican?
DIAZ-BALART GARCIA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 43% 1% 10%
VOTED 46% 52% 2%
NOT VOTED 46% 42% 1%
MEN 49% 39% 1% 11%
WOMEN 43% 47% 1% 9%
DEMOCRATS 10% 86% - 4%
REPUBLICANS 82% 7% 1% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 42% 2% 15%
18-29 43% 47% 1% 9%
30-44 48% 41% 1% 10%
45-59 47% 42% 1% 10%
60+ 45% 43% 1% 11%
WHITE 47% 42% 1% 10%
HISPANIC 49% 42% 1% 8%
BLACK 6% 65% - 29%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 39% 3% 5%
VOTED 41% 55% 4%
NOT VOTED 55% 37% 3%
MEN 56% 38% 4% 2%
WOMEN 50% 40% 2% 8%
DEMOCRATS 17% 76% 3% 4%
REPUBLICANS 86% 5% 3% 6%
OTHER 52% 40% 4% 4%
18-29 48% 44% 2% 6%
30-44 56% 36% 3% 5%
45-59 54% 39% 3% 4%
60+ 53% 38% 3% 6%