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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/23-25 results)

Diaz-Balart (R) 46 (45)
Garcia (D) 43 (41)

Early voters (12 percent of sample)

Diaz-Balart (R) 46
Garcia (D) 52

Both candidates are bringing their parties home. The big difference -- and the one that should propel Joe Garcia to victory -- is independents. Last month, Diaz-Balart won them 42-38. Now, they support Garcia 41-42, which means that they are breaking toward him as they make up their mind (as is usually the case against incumbents, which is why it's important to keep them under 50 percent). Throw in the big Obama ground game, the HUGE undecided numbers among African Americans (29 percent), and the early voting numbers being stashed in the bank, and things look quite good indeed.

McCain beats Obama in the district 53-39, which is close to Bush's 56-44 magin in 2004. However, among early voters, Obama leads 55-41. Again, that early vote is coming in huge. The latest early voting numbers from FL-25 support the poll's early voting numbers (which have a large MoE due to the small sample size):

26,522 total voters

Democrats: 47.2% (12,541)
Republicans: 32.7% (5,503)
Independents: 19.9% (8,768)

African-Americans: 18.8%
Hispanics: 48.4%
Whites: 27.6%
Other: 1%
Unknown: 3.9%

And look at the voter registration gains the past two years:

PARTY       NOV 2006
REP        129,197  39.50%
DEM        111,207  34%
OTHER       86,667  26.50%

TOTAL   327,071

REP        137,913  35.65%
DEM        134,549  35.62%
OTHER      105,241  27.86%

TOTAL   377,703

What was a 5.5-point GOP edge is now virtually a dead heat, something this poll's likely voter screen isn't picking up. If they turn out, we're in particularly good shape.

On the web:
Joe Garcia for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Twenty-fifth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 22, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Men                  192 (48%)
Women                208 (52%)

Democrats            136 (34%)
Republicans          146 (37%)
Independents/Other   118 (29%)

18-29                 74 (18%)
30-44                127 (32%)
45-59                114 (29%)
60+                   85 (21%)

White                226 (56%)
Hispanic             147 (37%)
Black                 18 (5%)
Other                  9 (2%)

Voted                 48 (12%)
Not Voted            352 (88%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mario Diaz-Balart? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         38%         27%         10%         15%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 48%         37%         15%

MEN                 51%         35%         14%
WOMEN               45%         39%         16%

DEMOCRATS           29%         57%         14%
REPUBLICANS         67%         19%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         38%         17%

18-29               45%         41%         14%
30-44               51%         34%         15%
45-59               49%         35%         16%
60+                 47%         38%         15%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Garcia? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         36%         24%         10%         17%

                 FAV  UNFAV       NO          OPINION    

ALL                 49%         34%         17%

MEN                 46%         38%         16%
WOMEN               52%         30%         18%

DEMOCRATS           68%         24%          8%
REPUBLICANS         31%         45%         24%
INDEPENDENTS        50%         33%         17%

18-29               52%         30%         18%
30-44               46%         38%         16%
45-59               47%         36%         17%
60+                 50%         33%         17%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Joe Garcia the Democrat or Mario Diaz-Balart the Republican?

                   DIAZ-BALART GARCIA      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 46%         43%          1%         10%

VOTED               46%         52%          2%
NOT VOTED           46%         42%          1%

MEN                 49%         39%          1%         11%
WOMEN               43%         47%          1%          9%

DEMOCRATS           10%         86%         -            4%
REPUBLICANS         82%          7%          1%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         42%          2%         15%

18-29               43%         47%          1%          9%
30-44               48%         41%          1%         10%
45-59               47%         42%          1%         10%
60+                 45%         43%          1%         11%

WHITE               47%         42%          1%         10%
HISPANIC            49%         42%          1%          8%
BLACK                6%         65%         -           29%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 53%         39%          3%          5%

VOTED               41%         55%          4%
NOT VOTED           55%         37%          3%

MEN                 56%         38%          4%          2%
WOMEN               50%         40%          2%          8%

DEMOCRATS           17%         76%          3%          4%
REPUBLICANS         86%          5%          3%          6%
OTHER               52%         40%          4%          4%

18-29               48%         44%          2%          6%
30-44               56%         36%          3%          5%
45-59               54%         39%          3%          4%
60+                 53%         38%          3%          6%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:35 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Is there a poll to determine how many votes (0+ / 0-)

    Sarah Silverman gets credit for in Florida?

  •  I always said Obama would loose Florida... (6+ / 0-)
    But I never considered this kind of realignment among Cuban voters. The strong candidacies of Martinez and Garcia are Godsend. Not only do they put two traditionally Republican districts in play, but I think the Cuban vote is what will make the difference in Florida in putting Obama over the top.

    "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" -8.25, -7.54

    by dem4evr on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:39:49 PM PDT

    •  please consider (7+ / 0-)

      The Cuban community is more diverse than the stereotypical line that politicos push. The younger Cuban-Americans care about domestic issues, like housing, the economy, a decimated educational system (thanks, JEB!).

      Mario and Lincoln rarely champion these causes. They are Bush lackeys and rabid Fidel Castro haters. That's it.

      Plus, FL-25 includes ultra-conservative Collier County, which is very white. Island politics doesn't play well there.

      -7.38, -5.23 I voted for Barack Obama at 8:31 a.m. EDT on Oct. 24. What about you? Go Obama/Biden 2008!

      by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:44:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Balart is running a very negative ad (0+ / 0-)

      here. One of them showing Garcia phisically attacking a young boy. They are really painting him in a VERY negative way and if the race is this close then he has a good chance.

    •  If Obama wins florida, it will be because he (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      frankzappatista, SBoswell

      carried Tampa, St. Pete and Clearwater along with Palm Beach County, and Broward, plus the Jacksonville area. He needs to carry all of tampa bay to win, they split in the last general election. These 3 campaigns will certainly help in bringing along people so he will do well in Dade. It is not only the Cuban vote in the Miami area, there are lots of Cuban-Americans in the Tampa area as well. I don't think it is the Cuban community that will put him over solely; it is getting blacks registered and voting and jews on board and voting.

  •  Gooooooo Joe! (3+ / 0-)

    We're taking FL-25, along with FL-21. Send the Diaz-Balart brothers packing!

    -7.38, -5.23 I voted for Barack Obama at 8:31 a.m. EDT on Oct. 24. What about you? Go Obama/Biden 2008!

    by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:39:54 PM PDT

  •  My issue with these numbers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    A Chicagoan in Naples, dotalbon

    McCain ahead among 18 - 29 y/o group?

  •  DWS....WHERE ARE YOU?????? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NY brit expat

    Where is Debbie? Why is she not out there for Joe the Candidate? And Raul the Candidate? And Anette the Candidate?



    DAILY SHØW/CØLBERT REPØRT SPØILER THREAD Møn-Thu 11PM EST, øn DKøs! Share yøur musical tastes

    by Skubwa on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:44:13 PM PDT

  •  "Likely voters" is such a flawed category (2+ / 0-)

    this election year.  I'm starting to think (based on the early voting tallies and on the general level of excitement) that the polls are completely underweighing Obama's real support.

  •  Can sending money still help? (0+ / 0-)

    How close to election does donating money to these campaigns remain effective?  Is there a cutoff point where it can't help anymore?  And is there a top priority list for this last week?  I don't want my money to go to waste on a candidate who can't win, nor to a candidate who's flush enough to win.  I want to send it where it really, really, still matters

    Any advice?

  •  ABC AMERICA! (3+ / 0-)

    A Always B Be C Closing! Put Obama in the White House.

    I can't believe we're within single digits in terms of days left until election day. This is CRAZY, man! Shit... I gotta find a tape and make sure my VCR is working that day...

    Barack Obama: Is he, perhaps, too awesome?

    by Rockpopple on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:46:56 PM PDT

  •  The Obama early-voting GOTV game (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HowieBeale, sulthernao

    will be the story that'll be told of how we won this election.

    This one is voting for That One

    by Jeremy10036 on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:50:31 PM PDT

  •  early votes R counted & totals released?? (0+ / 0-)

    how can they already count the early votes and release running totals to the public. I thought they just put them away for counting after the polls close. Seems like releasing early vote totals would be electioneering as the information would affect people who have not yet voted, thus affect outcomes.



  •  You know..... (7+ / 0-)

    I'm starting to think McCain truly is a maverick.  Also, a patriot.  He is single handedly taking down the entire Republican Party, allowing a 100% controlled Democratic government.  Yeah, that's the ticket.  Lieberman will tryto say he was in on it.  But he wasn't.

    One Country, One Vote Barack Obama

    by ccmask on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:55:40 PM PDT

  •  Garcia doing worse than Obama (0+ / 0-)

    Obama is winning early votes 55-41
    Garcia is winning early votes 52-46
    That means more people are voting for Obama than Garcia. It looks like Obama will have to win this district with about 53%, in order for Garcia to win.

    "I'm going to be on you like a numerator on a denominator." -Principal Skinner

    by dufffbeer on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:56:03 PM PDT

  •  For god's sake people, please GOTV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HowieBeale, Micheline

    John McCain "Beware the terrible simplifiers" Jacob Burckhardt, Historian

    by notquitedelilah on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:59:24 PM PDT

  •  again, caution on 'early voting totals' (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    frankzappatista, Micheline

    they are not necessarily predicting final outcomes.

    Think of it this way.  Lets say the last registered voter poll said M+5, but early voting totals showed O+10.

    If that held, it would mean that the registered voter poll is 15 points off.  Since the poll might have a MoE of say +/-3, it means that a 15 point swing is WELL outside the MoE and so would only happen 5% (or less) of the time.

    Isn't it more likely that we are banking our votes earlier than McCain, rather than assuming we are making a 15 point swing (in my example)?

    Also, consider this.  On election night (and on the many primary nights) we saw examples where the networks were able to call a state for a given candidate with only 1% reporting.  In some cases they accurately called a state for Obama, with only 1% in, and Hillary was actually beating him in the totals.  They were able to do this because the early totals weren't absolute predictors of the final tally, and they took into account where the totals were coming from and how results were matching up to polls.

    Similarly, in 2004, we saw Kerry up huge amounts in MO as the urban areas started reporting before the rural areas, and then watched Bush slowly erode that lead through the night until he was declared the winner.

    That is what we have here, except rather than reports coming in over the course of a night, they are coming in over the course of two weeks.

    I'm not ruling out that this is a good sign, in fact, good early voting numbers indicate we are enthusiastic, have a good trained ground game, will have a smoother election day, and will likely reach or exceed our polling expectations.  But it is much more likely that the final results will be closer to the registered voter polls than the current inflated democratic numbers.

  •  BBC just had a great piece on Cuban-Americans... (3+ / 0-)

    ...trending blue.

    Mr Garcia claims the Diaz Balart brothers are "one trick ponies" who are focused on Cuba all the time.

    "While Cuba is important and we have to work for the liberty of Cuba, that's not what's going to take care of my daughter's future and this community," Mr Garcia told the BBC.

    "I also have to work for jobs, healthcare, the economy, and our relations with Latin America have to be judged on more than just Cuba policy."

    The boisterous, curly-haired father-of-one finds himself boosted by a national surge of support for the Democratic Party and Barack Obama.

    Barack Obama campaigns in Miami, 21 Oct
    Barack Obama is gaining support from many voters for his economic policies

    He is getting a lot of backing from young voters worried about the economy.

    Some polls suggest Mr Garcia is in a dead-heat race with Mario Diaz Balart, something unthinkable just a few years ago

    So, Harold Ickes, maybe you should have listened to Rob Wexler instead of all of that PUMA bullshit. Do you remember that? It seems like ancient history now. In every corner, Obama is making up ground and laying down coattails that are shattering ethnic boundaries. And in turn, BBC cites 60% GOP support from Florida's Cuban-Americans.

    Folks, if you peel off 40% of the Cuban American vote from the Florida GOP and keep the senior vote within a polling MOE... It's going to be a proverbial hurricane come next Tuesday.

  •  Unfortunately the early vote is offset (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Phil S 33, krwlngwthyou

    by the big Republican advantages in absentee voting

    REP 58.0%
    DEM 25.8%
    OTH 16.2%

    And the absentee votes are coming in in sufficient numbers to offset the Democrat advantage in early voting. Except for the first day of early voting, there has been a slight Republican net advantage each day of early voting when those numbers are combined with the absentee numbers.

    Still a lot of GOTV work to do!

    Nill illigitimi carborundum

    by kansasr on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 05:20:05 PM PDT

  •  Terrific Garcia interview, so articulate (video) (0+ / 0-)

    via BBC.

    He's so sensible and thoughtful, unlike the lazy and sleazy DBs.

    (Sorry, I don't know how to embed from their website.)

  •  I might be the only one but I'm not (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    krwlngwthyou, Micheline

    putting that much stock in the early votes. It's a reflection on voter enthusiasm, and it's great that these votes are in the bag and counted, but there's nothing to indicate that republicans won't catch up on election day. I don't think the repubs have made early voting much of a priority, and I would imagine they'll be out in force on Nov 4.

    Obama: America's best hope to resurrect our Declining Snivelization

    by frankzappatista on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 05:22:57 PM PDT

  •  These numbers are great (0+ / 0-)

    I think both Mario and Lincoln will go down to defeat this year given these numbers.  

    Build the Wilshire Subway!

    by SoCalLiberal on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 05:24:00 PM PDT

  •  Ohio, Florida, Colorado (0+ / 0-)

    These are the states being discussed as "pivotal" "decisive" and so on.

    In fact, Obama only needs Kerry states plus

    New Mexico



    That = 270 Electoral votes

    Plouffe has said as much publicly, "If we win Virginia it's game, set and match" (MSNBC interview)

    •  do you have a link to that? I'd love to hear (0+ / 0-)

      him say that.  Was it recently?

      Mr. Puddles? Mr. Puddles, where are you? Has anyone seen my dog? Mr. Puddles? I have snausages.

      by krwlngwthyou on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 05:33:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sorry it was over a week ago. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        But I will do some digging and hopefully get back to you with a link.

      •  Here's the quotation. From "Dinocrat" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Eleanor Clift is in a darned good mood about the election in November:

        If Obama holds all the Kerry states, he’s at 252. Add Iowa for 259. Add a win in Virginia or North Carolina, "and it’s game, set, match," says Plouffe. Or add Colorado and New Mexico, Republican states where Obama now leads, to reach 270. The campaign last week put up a biographical ad in 18 states, including Alaska and Montana, historically Republican states. It looked like Obama was just trying to taunt McCain, lure him into spending money in states where he shouldn’t. But Plouffe insists "there’s not a head fake in the bunch." Alaska’s octogenarian Sen. Ted Stephens, under investigation for corruption and the sponsor of the infamous "bridge to nowhere," is in a tight race for reelection. Montana, which Bill Clinton won in ‘92, has a Democratic governor and senator.

  •  Hispanic Democrats Also Now Outnumber (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    A Chicagoan in Naples, lauramp

    Hispanic Republicans in Florida but are a political unknown.  For instance:

    The Dominican community has a sophisticated network of political operators strategically placed across the state, with phone banks that marshal 30 volunteers to call likely voters. They organize political caravans that wind through South Florida neighborhoods.  Miami Herald

     Dominicans register 3:1 Dem: Repub.

    In general, Venezuelans lean Republican and dislike the fact that Obama has said he'll meet with any leader w/o preconditions.  The Venezuelans in Miami are anti-Chavez like the Cubans are anti-Whichever Castro Brother.

    Colombians, Chileans, and Argentinians (like Dominicans) tended to be big Clinton supporters in the primary and feel at sea since Obama got the nod.  The Colombians like McCain who supports free-trade with their homeland while Obama does not.  Yet, there is a prediction that they'll break for Obama anyway.  Better hope so because Colombians are the most numerous Hispanic segment in Miami after Cubans.

    New voter demographics in this state are interesting:
    There are 800,000+;
    New Dems and New Indies both outstripped New Repubs;

    Democrats held an edge in every age group of the newly registered Florida voters, even among new voters over age 65. The majority of the new voters, though, were under age 35, and 46 percent of them registered as Democrats -- more than double the 21 percent who registered as Republicans. WaPo

    African Americans made up nearly 19 percent of those new voters;
    Hispanic voters  in FLorida made up nearly 20 percent of ditto.  There's a burgeoning Puerto Rican community around Orlando.  

    46 percent of the newly registered Hispanics this year are Democrats, 35 percent are independents and only 20 percent are Republican.

    Nationwide new Hispanic voters signed up 58 percent Democrats, 33 percent as unaffiliated and only nine percent as Republican.

    The times in this state they are a-changing.

    They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

    by Limelite on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 05:45:13 PM PDT

  •  Floridians, GOTV! (0+ / 0-)

    Tune in, turn on, turn out.


  •  I early voted last week (0+ / 0-)

    My DH will add one vote to the Obama/Garcia tally when he early votes today.

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