With John McCain pulling a Joe Namath this morning and guaranteeing a victory in nine days, it's high time to examine the numbers (even though he made it clear he doesn't believe them) to see if there is any substance behind the bragadoccio.
We have the seven tracking polls, plus a rather small total of 26 individual polls. And while there is a data point here and there for the McCain campaign to smile about (not to mention some measure of tightening in the tracking polls), the overall picture still equates to a map that looks rather difficult for Team McCain.
Follow me.
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
The best Sunday news for McCain on the polling front actually came out late Saturday evening (at least, here in the West). Zogby breathlessly proclaimed that the race was far from over, showing McCain moving from a nine-point to a deficit to a five-point deficit (49-44) in one night.
Among Zogby's proclamations, his single-day sample on Saturday was 49-46 Obama. Also, he claimed that Obama had slid from 54% to 50% to 49%. Leaving aside a basic math problem: those three numbers could not possibly average 49%.
Mark Blumenthal of Pollster thinks he knows what is up, on both counts. First, he assumes that both Friday AND Saturday were 49%, meaning that 54% would have been Wednesday's one-day sample. Therefore, Blumenthal continues, the rapid tightening is less an "OMG, the race is tightening!!" moment as it is simply one outlier in Obama's favor falling out of the three-day sample.
This seems plausible, and the effect was magnfified in my opinion by one outlier being replaced by an outlier in the OTHER direction. I say this because none of the other tracking polls, from just simple arithmetic, had anything close to a three-point night in their samples yesterday.
The other pollsters had a reasonably stable night. Two pollsters confirm Zogby on Obama losing some of his lead, although not on the extent of the drop. ABC/Washington Post has him dropping two points (from O+9 to O+7), while Research 2000 (from O+12 to O+11). Two pollsters (Diageo/Hotline and Gallup) add a point onto Obama's lead. Meanwhile the final two pollsters (Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP) hold steady.
TRACKING POLLS
Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 40%
Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47%, McCain 43%
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
There is not a ton of state polling today, but what we have is mostly favorable to Team Obama. The McCain fans will cling to Mason-Dixon's polls (except for Iowa, where even the somewhat conservative-leaning MD polls have Obama up double digits there). According to MD, McCain is still clinging to a lead in Missouri (one point), while he also leads in Georgia by six points.
Obama has some good data in here, as well. PPP polls the state of Virginia, and they give Obama a solid nine-point lead here. The University of New Hampshire gives Obama a huge 15-point edge in the Granite State. And the Arizona Daily Star is the second pollster in as many days to hint at a tightening of the race in Arizona.
All in all, new data in a total of twelve states. Using our momentum tracker (this set of polls vs. the Pollster.com trend composite), we see a mixed day: McCain beats the spread on seven of them, while Obama beats the spread on five of them.
ARIZONA--AZ Daily Star: McCain 44%, Obama 42%, Others 5% (Obama)
CONNECTICUT--U. of Connecticut: Obama 56%, McCain 31%, Others 1% (Obama)
GEORGIA--Mason Dixon: McCain 49%, Obama 43% (McCain)
IOWA--Mason Dixon: Obama 51%, McCain 40% (McCain)
MISSISSIPPI--U. of South Alabama: McCain 46%, Obama 33% (McCain)
MISSOURI--Mason Dixon: McCain 46%, Obama 45% (McCain)
NEW HAMPSHIRE--UNH: Obama 54%, McCain 39% (Obama)
OHIO--U. of Akron: Obama 45%, McCain 41% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg: Obama 53%, McCain 41%, Others 1% (McCain)
VIRGINIA--PPP: Obama 52%, McCain 43% (Obama)
WEST VIRGINIA--Research 2000: McCain 49%, Obama 43% (Obama)
WISCONSIN--Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 44% (McCain)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
Lots of numbers downballot today, mostly from the D-Kos/R2000 series of polls. We also see the first poll in a month with Norm Coleman leading in Minnesota, but that DID come from the same poll that had McCain within six of Obama in the state.
AZ-03--Research 2000: Rep. John Shadegg (R) 50%, Bob Lord (D) 40%, Others 2%
FL-13--Research 2000: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 45%, Christine Jennings (D) 34%, Others 8%
FL-21--Research 2000: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) 45%, Raul Martinez (D) 44%
IA-04--Research 2000: Rep. Tom Latham (R) 47%, Becky Greenwald (D) 42%
KY-02--Benenson (D): David Boswell (D) 47%, Brett Guthrie (R) 41%
MD-01--Research 2000: Andy Harris (R) 44%, Frank Kratovil (D) 40%
MN-SEN--St Cloud University: Norm Coleman (R) 36%, Al Franken (D) 27%, Others 16%
NH-GOV--UNH: Gov. John Lynch (D) 67%, Joe Kenney (R) 17%
NH-SEN--UNH: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 36%
NH-01--UNH: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 44%, Jeb Bradley (R) 39%
NH-02--UNH: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 51%, Jennifer Horn (R) 25%
NV-03--Research 2000: Dina Titus (D) 47%, Rep. Jon Porter (R) 45%
VA-SEN--PPP: Mark Warner (D) 60%, Jim Gilmore (R) 32%
WA-08--Research 2000: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 46%, Darcy Burner (D) 46%
As always, if you hear of new numbers, let us all know by throwing it out there in the comments. Enjoy what remains of the weekend. Tomorrow should be the first day of a very intense week of polling, if past is prologue.