"BECAUSE OF SO MUCH EARLY VOTING IN THIS COUNTRY, WHERE THIS RACE IS ON OCTOBER, 15 IS WHERE THIS RACE IS GOING TO BE." Chuck Todd, September 9, 2008 on KO. It is the last 15 seconds of the video!!!!!
On September 9, 2008 RCP was showing national polls at:
Obama 45.60%
McCain 48.00%
This was due to the post convention / Palin bump. However on that day, the polls already were showing an Obama movement.
For example NBC/WSJ had Obama back up to 1% as well as Rasmussen.
On Keith September 9, 2008 show (click on link in this diary) Chuck Todd said as follows:
"BECAUSE OF SO MUCH EARLY VOTING IN THIS COUNTRY, WHERE THIS RACE IS ON OCTOBER, 15 IS WHERE THIS RACE IS GOING TO BE."
At that time he of course had no clue, no idea whatsoever that on October 15, 2008 Obama would be up over 7%+ on RCP and up in every single poll, tracking or otherwise since September 26, 2008.
LINK: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/...
To date we only have five polls (from SUSA) that give us early voting insight:
OHIO
SUSA Ohio poll from 10/14/08 http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 50%
McCain 45%
with 14% having voted early at:
Obama 57%
McCain 39%
GEORGIA
SUSA Georgia poll from 10/13/08 http://www.surveyusa.com/...
McCain 51%
Obama 43%
with 18% having early voted at:
McCain 46%
Obama 52%
IOWA
SUSA poll of Iowa on 10/10/08 http://www.surveyusa.com/...
McCain 41%
Obama 54%
14% having already voted at:
McCain 31%
Obama 65%
New Mexico
SUSA Poll 10/14/08 http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 52%
McCain 45%
10% already voted at:
Obama 60%
McCain 37%
It appears that Obama early vote gives him a clear advantage. It also cements the vote early enough so that on election date there are no surprises. We all recall Obama closing fast on HRC in California before Super Tuesday only to be beaten by a huge early vote.
Also more and more polls show declining undecided numbers and supporters on both sides standing firm behind their candidate. At this point even if McCain manages to tie it up by 11/04/08 his chances are slim at best due to early vote.
My hope is that Keith would ask Chuck Todd and see if he now will repeat his statement from September 9, 2008.